Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

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Labor Market Concerns Cloud the Economic Outlook
Mon, Oct 12 2009, 07:46 GMT
by Wells Fargo Research Team
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
U.S. Review
Labor Market Concerns Cloud the Economic Outlook
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Last week’s larger than expected decline in nonfarm payrolls and today’s weak JOLTS numbers for the month of August suggest that it will take a very long time to recover all the jobs lost during this cycle.
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Chain store sales for September came in slightly better than expected, climbing 0.9 percent from August and rising 0.1 percent year-over-year.
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The ISM non-manufacturing index rose slightly more than expected, climbing 2.5 points to 50.9.
Still Firmly on the Road to Recovery
Last week’s larger-than-expected decline in nonfarm employment, combined with news that subsequent revisions to the employment data will show a much larger employment loss for previous months, has raised additional concerns about how long it will take to replace the jobs lost during this recession and how high the unemployment rate will ultimately rise. The latest data and benchmark revision estimate put the current job loss since the start of the recession at 8.0 million jobs, or a 5.8 percent loss. We expect nonfarm employment to continue to post declines until late spring at the earliest, bringing the ultimate job loss to 9.0 million jobs, or just over a 6.5 percent decline. Both rank as the largest declines since World War II.
Whether or not the unemployment rate rises to a new postwar high will be determined by how quickly job growth returns and how rapidly the labor force expands. Our September forecast has the jobless rate topping out at 10.5 percent around the middle of next year, and then gradually edging lower over the next several quarters. Right now that forecast is based more on the expectation that hiring plans will improve rather than any hard evidence that hiring is set to pick up.
Three reliable leading indicators of future employment growth are the length of the workweek, temporary employment, and the number of job openings relative to the size of the employment base. All three have been declining, although decreases in the workweek and temporary employment have clearly slowed. The third measure, job openings as a share of the workforce, has steadily declined since it first turned down in June 2007, six months before the recession began. The job openings rate is currently at a record low 1.8 percent and the number of job openings has fallen 50 percent since the series peaked in June 2007. The lack of improvement in the job openings series is consistent with anecdotal reports from businesses that suggest hiring will be exceptionally sluggish through at least the end of this year and probably well into 2010.
Fortunately, layoffs appear to be decelerating. Weekly first-time unemployment claims fell by 33,000 to 521,000, marking the fourth decline in the past five weeks. These figures mesh well with what we are hearing from businesses we visit with regularly. Most firms report that major layoffs are behind them and few plan any additional major cuts. Most are in no hurry to hire, however, and many continue to reduce staff through attrition.
The September ISM non-manufacturing survey rose roughly in line with expectations, with the overall index rising 2.5 points to 50.9. The new orders index rose solidly during the month and the business activity index increased 3.8 points to 55.1. The lone weak spot was employment, which rose 0.8 points to 44.3.
September chain store sales rose slightly more than expected, with sales rising 0.9 percent from August and climbing 0.1 percent over the past year. Cooler than usual weather helped drive demand for clothing and sales at discount stores and warehouse clubs remain quite strong.
Global Review
Very Low Rates No Longer Appropriate Down-Under
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The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised investors with a sooner-than-expected rate hike, reflecting an economy that no longer needs the extremely accommodative policy put in place in the midst of the financial crisis.
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Australia did not experience as much turmoil in the financial sector as other nations, and the country's extensive trade ties with Asia, where bona fide recoveries appear to be taking hold, have helped to boost Australia's exports.
Reserve Bank of Australia Hikes Rates
The Reserve Bank Australia (RBA) surprised investors this week by hiking its main policy rate by 25 basis points. Although the direction of the move was not a surprise—most market participants had expected the RBA to hike rates at some point over the next few months—the timing of the move was earlier than generally expected. Why did the RBA hike rates now? Does its tightening move have any implications for other major central banks?
Like most central banks, the RBA slashed its policy rate in the aftermath of last autumn’s financial crisis. With most analysts expecting a severe global recession, policymakers took steps to cushion the blow to the Australian economy. Not only did the RBA ease significantly, but the government also enacted a significant fiscal stimulus package. In the event, the downturn down-under turned out to be less severe than many had feared. The contraction in real GDP lasted only one quarter (the fourth quarter of last year), and the economy appears to be bouncing back on a sustained basis (top chart). Indeed, the country created 48,000 jobs during the third quarter—roughly a 0.4 percent increase—the first quarterly rise since the end of last year. The unemployment rate, which rose by only two percentage points between early 2008 and this summer, edged down to 5.7 percent in September (middle chart).


Australia’s relative out-performance generally reflects two factors. First, the Australian financial system was not ravaged as badly as the financial systems of many other major economies over the past two years. Second, Australia has extensive trade ties with most Asian countries, and the recoveries that are underway in those economies have helped to spur Australian exports this year.
In short, the Australian economy no longer needs the stimulation of very low rates that were put in place as an emergency measure. Therefore, the RBA is in the process of “normalizing” rates again, and further tightening is likely in the months ahead. That said, the RBA probably won’t slam on the brakes either via an aggressive campaign of rate hikes. The overall rate of CPI inflation is benign at only 1.5 percent presently. Although the core rate of inflation is higher at 2.5 percent, it has trended lower over the past year and currently is in the middle of the RBA’s target range of 2 to 3 percent. In addition, the global economy still faces some significant downside risks, and the RBA probably wants to proceed at a cautious pace until it is sure that a self-sustaining recovery is indeed underway.
Does the RBA’s rate hike have implications for other major central banks? No. Other advanced economies are significantly weaker than the Australian economy. The Federal Reserve, the ECB and other major central banks won’t tighten just because the RBA hiked rates this week. In our view, other major central banks will be on hold well into next year.
However, the RBA’s decision has implications for the value of the Australian dollar. In the wake of the rate hike announcement this week, the Aussie dollar strengthened versus most other major currencies, especially vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar (bottom chart). With the market expecting further tightening from the RBA and with most other major central banks likely on hold for the foreseeable future, the Aussie dollar could continue to ply higher, at least in the near term.

Published on
Mon, Oct 12 2009, 08:02 GMT
Archive
- Different Pace, Different Shape
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 19:29 GMT
- The Wages of Unemployment
Published On Mon, Nov 16 2009, 09:52 GMT
- Almost Everything Is Improving Except Hiring
Published On Mon, Nov 9 2009, 06:41 GMT
- Recovery Yes, But at What Pace? Jobs?
Published On Fri, Oct 30 2009, 18:52 GMT
- Public Policy Shapes the Recovery
Published On Mon, Oct 26 2009, 10:33 GMT
[ View All ]
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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks.
If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets.
Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues
The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement.
Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account.
Fast Markets
A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system.
In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors.
Potential Risks in a Fast Market
"Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate
Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive.
Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead
In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading.
Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile
IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price.
Large Orders in Fast Markets
Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5.
In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees.
This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted.
Online Trading and Duplicate Orders
Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed.
Limit Orders Can Limit Risk
A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected.
Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets
During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent.
Freeriding is Prohibited
Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security.
Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days.
Stop and Stop Limit Orders
A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better.
Glossary
All or None (AON)
A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed.
Day Order
A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session.
Fill or Kill
An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled.
Good Til Canceled (GTC)
An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order).
Immediate or Cancel
An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled.
Limit Order
An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases).
Maintenance Call
A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity.
Margin Requirement
Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales.
Market Makers
NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds.
Market Order
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace.
Specialists
Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy.
Stop
An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price.
Stop Limit
An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order.
These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
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