Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

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Change Yes, But Not Very Comfortable
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 08:14 GMT
by Wells Fargo Research Team
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
U.S. Review
Change Yes, But Not Very Comfortable
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This will not be your typical economic recovery. September’s employment report brought home the harsh realities of the forces of cyclical weakness with soft consumer incomes and spending for the second half of this year.
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Secular change will be most evident in a slower pace of consumer spending and residential construction in this recovery.
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Globalization of production will continue as emerging markets grow faster than the U.S.
Harsh Job Realities Greet Simplistic Recovery Hopes
This will not be your typical economic recovery. The September employment report brought home the harsh realities of the forces of cyclical weakness, structural change and the globalization of the production cycle.
Cyclical weakness is evident from the employment report for both income and production. Household income will be weaker than usual in this economic recovery as job losses are accompanied by diminishing gains in average hourly earnings. In addition, the average work week has declined over the past three months. Fewer workers working fewer hours for more modest wage increases is a prescription for subpar consumer spending in the second half of this year and likely a disappointing start for early next year.
Industrial production, a coincident economic indicator, has also not fared well. A decline in the manufacturing workweek and a drop of 51,000 jobs suggests a decline for industrial production to be reported later this month. This view is reinforced by the flattening out of the gain reported in the ISM manufacturing index. The ISM data for September suggest that both production and new orders decreased in September. Moreover, prices paid rose suggesting rising input cost pressures—especially on metals—for manufacturers. Our outlook remains for only modest gains in industrial production of one to two percent for the rest of this year. This outlook received further reinforcement from the decline in light vehicle sales in the aftermath of the cash for clunkers program. The weakness in vehicle sales, both cars and trucks, is consistent with weak consumer income and low levels of consumer confidence. Our outlook remains for subpar consumer spending of just below one percent compared to two percent prior to the financial correction.
One positive to the outlook is the stabilization that appears to be happening in private residential construction spending. Here too the test will be the response in the market once the first-time home buyer credit lapses—if it lapses at all. Unfortunately, nonresidential construction does not appear to have found a bottom and we expect that this sector of the economy will continue to be a drag on growth going forward.
Secular Change and Global Production
Beyond the business cycle, the strength of the expansion will be tested by secular forces that will damper, in our view, the pace of growth in consumer spending and housing starts for the year ahead. A more cautious, higher saving consumer will limit spending. The financial incentives to invest in housing are more limited. Moreover, job opportunities will increasingly favor college-educated workers and this will flavor life-time income expectations for many households in our society.
Production will continue its global outreach as U.S. growth will remain moderate compared to growth in Asia and other emerging markets. Production will follow sales. Moreover, production will continue to move up the value chain as lower value-added production, and its associated employment, will move offshore.
Global Review
Tankan Survey Signals Further Expansion in Japan
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The Tankan index of Japanese business sentiment, which is highly correlated with real GDP growth, suggests that the Japanese economy expanded further in the third quarter. Indeed, recent “hard” data are consistent with another increase in real GDP in the recently completed quarter.
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Yen appreciation represents a risk factor to the nascent Japanese economic recovery. The yen has strengthened nearly 10 percent against the dollar since early August, and export growth could slow if the Japanese currency were to rise significantly further.
Tankan Survey Signals Further Expansion in Japan
Although the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey is only conducted on a quarterly basis, it is widely followed by investors because it contains a treasure trove of information about the Japanese economy. For starters, the “headline” index, which measures business conditions among large manufacturers, has a high degree of correlation with real GDP growth (see chart on front page). Therefore, the rise in the index from -48 in June to -33 in September suggests that the economy expanded further on a sequential basis in the third quarter. Indeed, “hard” data show that industrial production (IP) through the first two months of the third quarter rose more than 6 percent relative to the second quarter. Although IP remains 18 percent below its level of a year ago, it has risen 20 percent since its nadir in February (top chart).

Japanese businesses reported in the Tankan survey that overseas demand improved considerably in the third quarter, and “hard” data, which show a 9 percent rise in export volumes through August, corroborate the anecdotal evidence. But domestic demand is also starting to do its part. Data on machinery orders suggest that capital expenditure may be in the process of stabilizing, and growth in consumer spending has turned positive. The value of retail sales is up more than 2 percent relative to the low set in March. (That said, retail spending is still down on a year-over-year basis—see middle chart.)

Speaking of retail sales, consumer spending may strengthen further over the next few quarters. The new government that took power a few weeks ago promised in its campaign platform to significantly increase tax deductions for families with dependent children. If this policy proposal is passed into law later this year, as seems likely, the boost to household real disposable income could lead to stronger consumption expenditures, at least over the next few quarters.
In sum, the Japanese economy fell off a cliff in the wake of last autumn’s worldwide financial crisis, and most indicators suggest that economic activity remains below the levels of a year ago. However, an incipient recovery appears to be taking hold. Is there anything that could cause the recovery to stall? Clearly, there are a number of shocks that could cause the economy to lurch lower again, but a notable risk to the recovery is significant yen appreciation. The Japanese currency has strengthened nearly 10 percent versus the dollar since early August (bottom chart). Moreover, the yen has appreciated against most major currencies as well recently.

Very low interest rates in the United States relative to Japan—the 3-month dollar LIBOR rate is currently 6 basis points below the comparable yen rate—has contributed to the yen’s rise vis-à-vis the greenback. In addition, the new government has hinted that it will essentially take a hands-off approach to the exchange rate because yen appreciation helps consumers by reducing import costs. However, export growth could slow in the quarters ahead if the yen were to strengthen significantly more, which could put a damper on overall economic growth in Japan.
Published on
Mon, Oct 5 2009, 08:25 GMT
Archive
- Different Pace, Different Shape
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 19:29 GMT
- The Wages of Unemployment
Published On Mon, Nov 16 2009, 09:52 GMT
- Almost Everything Is Improving Except Hiring
Published On Mon, Nov 9 2009, 06:41 GMT
- Recovery Yes, But at What Pace? Jobs?
Published On Fri, Oct 30 2009, 18:52 GMT
- Public Policy Shapes the Recovery
Published On Mon, Oct 26 2009, 10:33 GMT
[ View All ]
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
| P.O. Box 025383 Miami, FL 33102-5383
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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks.
If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets.
Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues
The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement.
Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account.
Fast Markets
A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system.
In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors.
Potential Risks in a Fast Market
"Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate
Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive.
Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead
In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading.
Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile
IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price.
Large Orders in Fast Markets
Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5.
In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees.
This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted.
Online Trading and Duplicate Orders
Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed.
Limit Orders Can Limit Risk
A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected.
Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets
During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent.
Freeriding is Prohibited
Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security.
Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days.
Stop and Stop Limit Orders
A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better.
Glossary
All or None (AON)
A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed.
Day Order
A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session.
Fill or Kill
An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled.
Good Til Canceled (GTC)
An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order).
Immediate or Cancel
An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled.
Limit Order
An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases).
Maintenance Call
A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity.
Margin Requirement
Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales.
Market Makers
NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds.
Market Order
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace.
Specialists
Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy.
Stop
An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price.
Stop Limit
An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order.
These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
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