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A Double Dose of Reality

Fri, Jul 3 2009, 07:31 GMT
by Wachovia Research Team

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC


U.S. Review

A Double Dose of Reality

This week’s economic numbers may have finally brought an end to the green shoot rally. There is only so far “less bad” economic news can take us. A sustainable recovery will require things to actually get better. This week’s big disappointment was the weaker employment data. Nonfarm payrolls declined by a larger than expected 467,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 9.5 percent.

The other bad economic news is the inability of California, and several other large states, to come up with a working budget. California’s troubles are receiving the most attention and the state is reportedly set to begin issuing IOUs today, since it has run out of money.

The problems at state governments are the most severe in modern history. Taxes will either have to be increased or spending will have to be cut dramatically. Either way there will be more strains placed on consumers and the broader economy. The severe state fiscal imbalances are putting strains on parts of the economy that usually hold up well during recessions and raise the possibility of a second stimulus program later this year.

The Economy Really Needs Some Genuine Good News

While the economy struggled immensely, the first half of this year turned out to be no worse than widely feared. Moreover, the rate of deterioration in economic activity lessened considerably during the second quarter. Layoffs decreased, motor vehicle sales stopped falling and factory orders actually improved slightly. Real GDP almost certainly declined during the second quarter and our latest working estimate calls for real GDP to decline at around a three percent pace for the quarter. While that marks some improvement from the prior two quarters, the decline is still quite substantial.

June’s employment report marks somewhat of a reversal. Employment losses worsened during the month, with nonfarm payrolls falling by 467,000 jobs. Federal government job losses increased, reversing a gain a few months earlier tied to the temporary hiring of Census workers. State and local government payrolls were little changed in the month, with gains in education offsetting job losses in other areas. Private payrolls declined by 415,000 jobs, with losses across nearly every industry. The heaviest losses continue to be in manufacturing and construction but employment is also falling in the service sector, particularly in financial services, retail trade and at temporary staffing companies. The average workweek also dropped another tenth of hour in June, suggesting that a turnaround in employment is still quite a way off. Businesses typically work their existing workforce longer before they commit to hiring more workers. Even then, businesses typically first turn to temporary staffing companies for workers before they add permanent staff.

The decline in the average workweek combined with the huge drop in nonfarm payrolls produced a 0.8 percent drop in aggregate hours worked. Hours worked declined at a 7.9 percent annual rate during the second quarter, compared to a 8.9 percent drop in the first quarter. Given our forecast for real GDP to decline at around a three percent pace, the drop in hours worked suggests that productivity growth improved significantly during the quarter.
The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percent in June to 9.5 percent. While that represents a 26-year high, the increase in the unemployment rate was less than feared. The labor force declined by 155,000 in June. Apparently, fewer people chose to look for work this summer than usual. Both the labor force participation rate and employment population ratio declined by 0.2 percentage points during the month. Weaker employment conditions are weighing on consumers’ minds and were the major factor in June’s weaker than expected consumer confidence figures.


Global Review

Is Japan Recovering?

Data released this week showed that the Tankan index of Japanese business sentiment rose from a reading of -58 in March to -48 in June (see graph at left). The index is widely followed by market participants because it is fairly correlated with Japanese GDP growth. If the past relationship between the Tankan index and the year-over-year growth rate continues to hold, then the latter probably improved somewhat from the steep 8.4 percent contraction registered in the first quarter. Indeed, Japanese real GDP quite possibly rose on a sequential basis in the second quarter following double-digit declines in each of the past two quarters.

Japanese Tankan Survey
“Hard” data also suggest that the economy has bounced. Industrial production rose for the third consecutive month in May (see top chart on page 4). Yes, production is still down 30 percent relative to May 2008. The Japanese economy fell into a very deep hole late last year/early this year, and it is still in that hole. However, Japanese IP has risen 14 percent from its low in February. Does recovery begin when you finally emerge from the hole or when you begin to climb from the bottom of the hole? Most economists would say the latter suffices for recovery.

Top
Among G-7 countries, the contraction in GDP in the first quarter of 2009 was the deepest in Japan, so how in the world can anybody talk about recovery? Among respondents to the Tankan survey, large manufacturers, which tend to be more exposed to exports than smaller manufacturers and non-manufacturers, reported the most improvement. Although the volume of exports is down more than 30 percent on a year-over-year basis, real exports are up about 13 percent over the past few months (middle chart). Therefore, much of the recent bounce in the Japanese economy appears to be related to foreign sources. Exports to the United States appear to be stabilizing. The Chinese economy is clearly growing again and shipments to China, which account for 15 percent of Japanese exports, have risen about 30 percent over the past few months.

Middle
In contrast, domestic demand in Japan remains sluggish. As noted above, small manufacturers and non-manufacturers, who tend to be more dependent on domestic spending than their large manufacturing counterparts, reported much less improvement in the Tankan survey. Indeed, retail spending has been flat to slightly down since the beginning of the year. Employment in May was off two percent relative to the same month last year, and unemployment has risen to the highest rate since Japan crawled out of its last recession in the early years of this decade.

A deep recession and a weak labor market are usually the recipe for declining inflation, and Japan is flirting with deflation with the overall CPI down more than one percent in May (bottom chart). Some of the decline in the overall rate of inflation is due to the collapse in energy prices. However, the core rate of inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is also in negative territory. Although a global recovery should help Japan to avoid an outright deflationary spiral, Japanese CPI inflation should remain slightly negative for the foreseeable future.

Bottom


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A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.

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