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Recession and Recovery

Mon, Jun 15 2009, 04:48 GMT
by Wachovia Research Team

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC


U.S. Review

Recession and Recovery

Financial markets are acting as if the recession is ending and recent economic data tend to support that notion. We are now projecting that the recession will end this summer. The strength and durability of the recovery remain very much in question, however, and the economy is expected to have a tough time gaining momentum.

This past week had a light schedule of economic reports and the Treasury auctions took center stage, particularly when Wednesday’s 10-year auction received tepid demand and 10-year yields touched 4 percent. The rise in yields corresponds with continued bad news on the size of the federal budget deficit and weaker dollar. Combined they suggest overseas investors are less sold on near term economic prospects for the U.S. than equity market investors are.

We now believe the recession will end this summer, which is a few months earlier than previously thought. The decision to move up the end of the downturn was largely driven by the timing of motor vehicle assembly plant shutdowns and restarts, which will produce huge inventory swings.

The Economy Still Faces Significant Hurdles

The recent trend in retail sales also lends support to a turnaround in real GDP during the third quarter. After rising in January and February, retail sales fell in March and April, which meant that second quarter sales started at a low base and will likely post a decline for the second quarter even if sales rebound in May and June. Retail sales did pick up in May, with overall sales rising 0.5 percent. The increase means that consumer spending will likely end the second quarter on a stronger note than it started it and will make it easier for real personal consumption expenditures to post at least a modest gain in the third quarter.

The combination of a positive swing in inventories and modest growth in real personal consumption expenditures means there is a high probability third quarter real GDP will be solidly positive. While one quarter of positive real GDP growth does not guarantee the recession will end, we believe that inventories have been drawn down so much that production will rise throughout the second half of this year just to move back in line with sales.

While the recession will likely end in the next few months the economy still faces significant hurdles. Consumer spending is still exceptionally weak and consumers have shown no sign of boosting purchases for big ticket items. To put it bluntly, sales have been horrible for the past eight months and have merely risen slightly from that level. Sales that are a little better than horrible are still pretty horrible.

Consumers will not likely spend freely again until they feel better about their employment and income prospects. On that front, the data are a little better than they have been. First time claims for unemployment insurance declined slightly more than expected this past week, falling by 24,000 to 601,000. The drop also helped pull down the four-week moving average by 10,500 to its lowest level in four months. Unfortunately, continuing unemployment claims continued to increase and the insured unemployment rate was revised up 0.1 percent from the prior week to 5.1 percent, where it stayed this past week. The increase suggests the unemployment rate will rise to at least 9.5 percent in June.

Another huge hurdle for the economy has been the rise in interest rates and weakness in the U.S. dollar. As mentioned earlier, the recent auction for 10-year Treasury notes did not go well. The 30-year auction faired better, but there is a paucity of supply for longer dated issues. The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield has sent mortgage rates sharply higher. Higher interest rates will make it much tougher to engineer a recovery in home sales.


Global Review

Bond Yields Signaling Stronger Growth?

Government bond yields in most major countries have trended higher over the past few weeks (see graph at left). One line of thought claims that the back-up in yields, at least in the United States, reflects reluctance by foreign investors to support the unprecedented budget deficits the federal government is incurring. However, at this week’s 30-year bond auction “indirect” bidders, which includes foreign central banks, bought about one-half of the $11 billion worth of securities on offer, casting some doubt on the notion that foreigners are eschewing U.S. securities, at least at present.

Weekly Economic

Weekly Economic

The rise in yields over the past few months, not only in the United States but in other major economies as well, is consistent with the expectation that the global economy will stabilize later this year and resume growing again. However, some recent data releases show that growth has not yet turned positive, at least not in some important economies. For example, industrial production (IP) in the 16-member Euro-zone tumbled 1.9.percent in April relative to the previous month, bringing its rate of decline over the past 12 months to nearly 20 percent (top chart).
In Germany, IP also fell 1.9 percent in April relative to March, which was much weaker than most investors had expected. Germany is an important supplier of capital goods to Eastern Europe, and the economic meltdown in that region is having a negative effect on the German economy. In that regard, the value of Germany’s exports declined 4.8 percent in April from March.

U.K. economic data have not been quite as downbeat recently. British IP was up 0.3 percent in April, the first monthly increase in 13 months. Yes, IP is still off 12 percent on a year-over-year basis, but the rise in the PMIs over the past few months—the service sector PMI is now back in positive territory—suggests that the British economy may be nearing bottom. A widely followed index calculated by a research institution indicates that British GDP contracted 0.9 percent (not annualized) between February and May, not nearly as bad as the 2.2 percent nosedive recorded between December and March. That said, it appears that Britain will record another negative growth rate in the second quarter.

If there is one country in the world where real “green shoots” have popped up—that is, where growth is actually positive again—it is China. Data released this week showed that the year-over-year growth rate of industrial production rose from 7.3 percent in April to 8.9 percent in May (bottom chart). Interestingly, the acceleration in Chinese IP since its nadir a few months ago does not appear to be linked to exports, which were down 26 percent in May, more than the 23 percent decline registered in April. Rather, domestic sources of spending appear to be propelling the Chinese economy higher at present. Growth in retail spending strengthened from 14.8 percent in April to 15.2 percent in May, and investment spending was up 33 percent in May, the strongest growth rate in five years. In response to the global financial crisis last autumn, the Chinese government decided to accelerate infrastructure spending and relax lending restrictions that were put in place when inflation was seen as Public Enemy #1. Its efforts appear to be bearing fruit.

Weekly Economic


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Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement. Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account. Fast Markets A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.

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