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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

Structural Issues Impede Recovery

Mon, May 18 2009, 09:51 GMT
by Wachovia Research Team

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC  |  View company's profile


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U.S. Review

Structural Issues Impede Recovery

Suddenly many of those “green shoots” that gathered so much attention a few weeks ago appear to be losing some of their bloom. One of this week’s major disappointments was a larger-than-expected drop in retail sales. Overall retail sales fell 0.4 percent in April and sales excluding the volatile motor vehicle sector fell 0.5 percent. Moreover, declines for March were somewhat worse than first reported.

Gains in retail sales in January and February had raised hopes that the worst was over. Consumer spending actually posted a modest inflation-adjusted gain in the first quarter. We had warned back in late March that is was too soon to buy into a stabilization of retail sales. Much of the improvement in January and February was merely a statistical artifact, reflecting a smaller than usual decline following an unusually weak holiday season. Overall retail sales in April fell 0.4 percent, following a 1.3 percent drop the prior month. Part of April’s drop was attributable to falling gasoline prices. Sales at gasoline stations fell 2.3 percent in April.

Automotive Cutbacks Will Pull Unemployment Even Higher

Retail sales also fell sharply at grocery stores, with outlays falling 1.0 percent in April. The decline marks the third significant drop in sales in the past three months and has pulled down sales at food stores to just a 1.3 percent gain over the past year. Food prices have been moderating, which may explain part of this drop. Consumers are also becoming thrifty by shifting more purchases to store brands and private labels. In addition, consumers are buying more groceries from warehouse clubs and discount stores.

Spending in the more discretionary categories was weak pretty much across the board. Sales at furniture stores fell 0.5 percent in April, following a 2.3 percent drop in March. Over the past year, sales at furniture stores were down 14.3 percent. Sales at electronics chain stores fell 2.8 percent in April, following a 7.8 percent drop in March. For the year, sales at electronics stores are down 11.9 percent. Clothing stores also had another tough month, with sales falling 0.5 percent. Sales also declined slightly at department stores and non-store retailers.

Consumers should catch a bit of a break in coming months. Energy prices remain well-below their year-ago level and food prices are finally beginning to moderate. Lower prices for groceries and gasoline should put a few more dollars in consumers’ pockets and free up some additional resources for discretionary purchases.

In the near term, the weakness in retail sales pours cold water on the notion the recession is ending. We continue to believe the worst is over but do not see the recession ending until this fall. Consumers simply do not have the wherewithal to increase spending in a major way. Unemployment continues to rise and cutbacks in the auto sector are just beginning to impact the data. Weekly unemployment claims rose 36,000 to 637,000 in the latest week, with most of the increase due to motor vehicle plant layoffs.

Cutbacks in the automobile industry will intensify over the next few weeks, as General Motors joins Chrysler shutting most of their production facilities and notifying dealers their contracts will not be renewed. We expect unemployment claims to surge to new cycle highs in coming weeks, as layoffs spread to suppliers and supporting industries. Continuing unemployment claims posted another large increase, rising to 6.5 million. The increase pushed the insured unemployment rate to 4.9 percent, marking the tenth consecutive weekly increase. The entire gain has shown up in the overall jobless rate. The overall unemployment rate should rise from 8.9 percent in April to 9.3 percent in May and there is considerable risk to the upside over the next few months.


Global Review

Relapse in China?

If there has been a country this year where bona fide “green shoots” of recovery have been spotted it would have to be China. For example, the manufacturing PMI has stood in expansion territory over the past two months, and construction activity appears to be picking up. Therefore, it was a bit disappointing to see the year-over-year growth rate of industrial production decline from 8.3 percent in March to 7.3 percent in April (see chart at left). Have “green shoots” in China turned into brown weeds?

Year Over Year

It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for the slowdown in industrial production growth in April, but exports may be part of the explanation. Exports, which contracted at a year-over-year rate of 17.1 percent in March, fell 22.6 percent in April (see chart on top of page 4). Continued contraction, albeit at slower rates, appears to be occurring in most major economies thus far in the second quarter. Therefore, it is not a huge surprise that Chinese export growth remains weak.

Year Over Year

Weak Exports, Strong Domestic Spending

In contrast to weak export data, the domestic part of the Chinese economy appears to be holding up fairly well. The year-over-year growth rate in nominal retail spending held steady at nearly 15 percent in April (see middle chart). With overall consumer prices declining 1.5 percent in April, the rate of growth in real consumption seems to be holding up very well indeed. In addition, total fixed investment spending in the first four months of 2009 was up 30 percent relative to the same period last year, which represents the strongest rate of expansion in three years.

Chinese Retail

Strength in domestic spending probably reflects, at least in part, the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy. Acceleration in infrastructure spending that was announced late last year is showing up in stronger growth in fixed investment spending. In addition, the relaxation of lending restrictions, which were put in place last year when inflation was deemed to be “public enemy #1”, appears to be helping construction spending. Various tax cuts that were enacted late last year are probably contributing to the resilience in consumer spending.

Despite the slowdown in industrial production growth in April, we think it would be premature to write off the Chinese economic expansion that seemed to be a surer bet just a few weeks ago. If rates of contraction in foreign economies continue to slow, which we believe they will, the downturn in Chinese exports should also level out. In addition, macroeconomic stimulus will continue to shore up the economy for the next few quarters. That said, we will be watching Chinese economic data very closely in the months ahead for any signs of slowing in the pace of overall GDP growth.

After allowing the renminbi to strengthen 10 percent versus the dollar between July 2007 and July 2008, the Chinese government has subsequently held the exchange rate steady (see bottom chart). Until the Chinese government is comfortable that foreign economies have hit bottom and will start to grow again, it likely will permit very little renminbi appreciation. Therefore, we project that the exchange value of the Chinese currency vis-à-vis the dollar will remain essentially steady through year end.

Chinese Exchange


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For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
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