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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

That Deflating Feeling Lingers

Mon, Jan 19 2009, 07:09 GMT
by Wachovia Research Team

Wells Fargo Investments, LLC  |  View company's profile


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U.S. Review

That Deflating Feeling Lingers

Falling energy prices and dramatic discounting by retailers pulled the headline inflation figures much lower during December. Falling prices make last month’s retail sales and inventory figures, as well as November’s trade data, much harder to interpret. There is no question real GDP declined substantially during the fourth quarter. Our own estimate calls for a 5.3 percent decline at an annual rate and most forecasts call for a drop somewhere between a five and six percent annual rate.

We have noted previously that we do not believe the economy will endure a sustained problematic period of deflation. We are experiencing deflation, however, with prices of many goods, commodities, and assets falling. Wages and salaries are also being cut, although falling prices may temporarily offset some of this impact. In fact, real hourly earnings have soared in recent months as the headline CPI declined.

The Consumer Price Index fell for the third straight month and the year-over-year growth rate fell to nearly zero. The drop in energy prices and a global recession have combined to push inflation lower.

Pipeline Inflation Has Cooled Off Considerably

Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI was essentially flat in December. Shelter costs, which are 43 percent of the core CPI, rose just 1.9 percent last year. With housing still declining, we do not look for inflationary pressure here in the coming year.

Inflationary pressures continue to ease further back in the production pipeline. The Producer Price Index declined 1.9 percent in December, its fifth consecutive drop. Though energy prices account for much of the pullback, food prices fell 1.5 percent in December, the largest drop in nearly three years. Prices for fresh vegetables plunged at nearly a 15 percent annual rate and prices for beef and veal, milk and canned fruit and juices all moved lower.

Excluding food and energy items, the PPI rose 0.2 percent and finished the year with a 4.3 percent gain, which was the largest increase since 1988. Core inflation has moderated considerably in recent months, however, and will likely continue to decline in coming months. Prices are falling further back in the production pipeline. Prices for intermediate goods fell 4.2 percent in December and prices for raw materials and crude goods fell 5.3 percent. Both series have fallen for five months in a row. Excluding food and energy items, intermediate and core goods prices are down less but still declined considerably. Prices for core intermediate goods plunged at a 24.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, while prices for core crude goods plummeted at an 82.6 percent pace.

The remarkable declines in energy and commodity prices will make it much more difficult to interpret recent trade figures, retail sales and inventory data. All have plummeted recently but price effects account for much of the drop. Put differently, the volume of imports fell less than the reported record 12 percent drop for November and the volume of retail sales probably did not fall nearly as much as the headline 2.7 percent plunge in retail sales.

While price changes will make it more difficult to interpret recent economic data, it clearly can be done. Inflation-adjusted trade figures show the nation’s trade gap shrinking by $6.1 billion to $39.5 billion. Real retail sales, deflated by the CPI, look like they declined about two percent in December. Consequently, cutbacks in consumer spending were a huge drag on fourth GDP and the recent wide monthly swings in the trade deficit will likely have little effect on the fourth quarter figures. Inventories remain a huge wild card, however. While inventories have declined in recent months, the drop has not kept pace with declines in sales. The inventory/sales ratio has surged in recent months and inventories of imported automobiles have piled up at many major ports.


Global Review

ECB Cuts Rates Yet Again

As widely expected, the European Central Bank cut its main policy rate by 50 bps at its meeting this week. The two-week repo rate now stands at 2.00 percent, matching the low set in 2003-04. As we discuss below, we believe the ECB will need to ease policy even further.

In explaining the decision to cut rates in the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Trichet referenced the “significant slowdown” that is underway in the Euro-zone. “Downturn” would probably be a better word to describe what is transpiring at present in the Euro-zone economy. As shown in the top chart on page 4, the purchasing managers’ indices for the manufacturing and service sectors have plunged into deep recession territory over the past few months. Indeed, “hard” data from November confirm just how weak the Euro-zone economy is at present. Industrial production tumbled nearly eight percent relative to November 2007, exceeding the decline registered during the deep recession of the early 1990s, and retail sales in November fell 1.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. Real GDP data for the Euro-zone have not been released yet, but we project that GDP contracted at an annualized rate of about four percent in the fourth quarter relative to the previous quarter. If realized, it would be the sharpest quarterly drop - by a mile - in real GDP since Euro-zone statistics began to be compiled in 1995.

“Price stability” is the ECB’s sole mandate, and President Trichet also talked about the outlook for inflation as is customary. Trichet said that the risks to price stability over the medium term appeared to be “broadly balanced.” As shown in the middle chart the overall rate of CPI inflation has dropped sharply in recent months, declining to 1.6 percent in December. The stability of the “core” CPI inflation rate over the past year or so relative to the overall inflation rate reflects the sharp rise and subsequent collapse in energy prices over the last year.

In our view, the Euro-zone economy will contract through the first half of this year. On a peak-to-trough basis, we look for real GDP to drop about 2-½ percent, which is a very deep downturn regardless of how one defines recession. As the economic continues to contract, both the overall and core inflation rates should recede further. Indeed, we project that the overall CPI inflation rate will approach zero percent this summer, which will give the ECB scope to cut rates even further. Although the ECB may slow down the pace of easing in the months ahead -- it has slashed rates by 225 bps in only three months – it will need to cut rates further, at least in our view, to help prop up the faltering economy.

As shown in the bottom chart, the euro has depreciated nearly 20 percent on balance since summer as the outlook for the Euro-zone economy has deteriorated markedly. As long as the ECB is in rate-cutting mode, we believe the euro will continue to trend lower versus the dollar. However, as we describe in our recent Monthly Economic Outlook, which is posted at www.wachovia.com/economics, the euro could strengthen again against the greenback later this year as the very sluggish nature of the U.S. economic recovery that we project becomes painfully apparent to investors.


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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks. If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets. Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement. Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account. Fast Markets A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system. In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors. Potential Risks in a Fast Market "Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive. Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading. Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. Large Orders in Fast Markets Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5. In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees. This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted. Online Trading and Duplicate Orders Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed. Limit Orders Can Limit Risk A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected. Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent. Freeriding is Prohibited Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security. Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days. Stop and Stop Limit Orders A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price. A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better. Glossary All or None (AON) A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed. Day Order A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session. Fill or Kill An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled. Good Til Canceled (GTC) An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order). Immediate or Cancel An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled. Limit Order An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases). Maintenance Call A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity. Margin Requirement Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales. Market Makers NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds. Market Order An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace. Specialists Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy. Stop An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. Stop Limit An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
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