Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

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No, 2008 Wasn't Just A Bad Dream
Mon, Jan 12 2009, 10:28 GMT
by Wachovia Research Team
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
U.S. Review
No, 2008 Wasn't Just A Bad Dream
No, 2008 Wasn't Just A Bad Dream This week brought a whole host of reports confirming the fourth quarter was every bit as bad as advertised. Reports earlier in the week showed manufacturing activity continuing to contract in December and factory orders were exceptionally weak in the three months ended in November. Employment conditions also continued to worsen, with nonfarm employment falling by 524,000 jobs.
December's job losses were extremely widespread and brought the total loss over the past five months to over two million jobs. A total of over 2.5 million jobs have been lost since the recession began a little over a year ago. While the bulk of those earlier losses were in manufacturing and in housing-related industries, job losses have broadened and intensified.
Not only did employment weaken but the average workweek has also continued to shorten, as more and more businesses have chosen to reduce hours. Total hours worked plummeted at a 7.7 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter, which is consistent with our forecast calling for fourth quarter real GDP to decline at a 6 percent annual rate.
Fourth Quarter Job Losses Will Undermine The First Half of ‘09
The extraordinary cutbacks in nonfarm payrolls during the fourth quarter are likely to carry over into the first half of 2009. Various counts of layoff announcements, including the Challenger survey, show layoff announcements picking up toward the end of the year. Several companies, including Alcoa and Lenovo, have recently announced plans to trim payrolls in coming months, as sales and new orders weakened much more during the fourth quarter than expected. This past season's disappointing holiday retail sales are also expected to lead to widespread store closings, resulting in additional job losses.
With employment and hours worked down sharply in recent months, personal income will likely remain under pressure, which means lower interest rates and lower gasoline prices will provide less relief to shell-shocked consumers. The International Council of Shopping Centers reported that December chain store sales fell 1.7 percent year-to-year, amidst the worst holiday shopping season since 1970. The drop was not unexpected and many chains have announced plans to close underperforming stores and a few chains are shutting down entirely. With this new data, we estimate that retail sales fell 0.8 percent in December and that sales excluding motor vehicles declined just over 1 percent. Both declines are in line with our earlier forecast for fourth quarter GDP growth.
The current quarter is little more than a week old, but expectations for first quarter growth are already being ratcheted down. The major domestic motor vehicle producers announced extended plant shutdowns for January, which will pull industrial production down sharply and also lead to a sharp drop in inventories. There has also been a string of disappointing announcements by major companies, such as Alcoa, Intel and Wal-Mart. Most reported disappointing sales and have further reduced expectations for sales and earnings for the new year. With earnings coming under pressure the talk of a new bull market will likely prove short-lived and capital spending plans will likely be cut back further.
November factory orders data show non-defense capital goods orders plummeting at a 28.0 percent annual rate over the past three months. The drop will likely result in even weaker capital spending during the first quarter. Another surprise this week was nonresidential construction held up a little better than expected in November. The strength likely reflects projects started well before the onset of the credit crisis. Many firms are likely rushing to finish projects before their funding dries up. We have no doubt that commercial construction is headed much lower in 2009.
Global Review
Bank of England Eased Further
In a widely expected move, the Bank of England cut rates by 50 bps this week (see chart at lower left). In explaining the decision to reduce the main policy rate to only 1.50 percent, the lowest rate in the Bank’s 315-year history, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) noted the sharp downturn in economic activity in the fourth quarter, not only in the United Kingdom but in most other economies as well.
Indeed, recent data confirm the MPC’s grim assessment of the current state of the U.K. economy. Industrial production tumbled nearly seven percent in November relative to the same month last year, the sharpest rate of contraction since 1980. Unfortunately, manufacturers appear not to have fared much better in December. As shown in the top chart on page 4, the manufacturing PMI remained mired in deep contraction territory in December. Although the service sector PMI edged up a bit last month, it too remains at a very low level, and the construction PMI continues to plumb new lows. Speaking of construction, a widely followed index of U.K. house prices fell 2.5 percent in December relative to the previous month. Since peaking in late 2007 the index of house prices has dropped 17 percent, nearly as much as the 20 percent cumulative decline that occurred in the early 1990s. Little wonder that consumer confidence has collapsed. By our reckoning real GDP probably dropped at an annualized rate of roughly four percent in the fourth quarter, which would be the sharpest contraction since the early 1970s. Our forecast also projects that British real GDP will continue to contract for the next two quarters.
The bad news then is that the United Kingdom appears to be mired in a deep recession at present. If there is a glimmer of hope it is that the British authorities are responding to the crisis. For starters, the Bank of England has cut rates aggressively. (The main policy rate has been reduced by 350 bps since early October.) In addition, the government has taken steps to stimulate the economy via fiscal policy. Pre-announced public capital expenditures have been brought forward and the value-added tax was reduced by 2.5 percentage points. Although the British stimulus package is not as large as the program that the incoming Obama administration is putting together, it is a step in the right direction.
Another stimulative factor for the U.K. economy is the recent depreciation of sterling. As shown in the bottom chart, the British pound has weakened about 10 percent on balance versus the euro since mid-July. It’s depreciation against the U.S. dollar totals 25 percent over that period. Everything else equal, currency depreciation should help to shore up U.K. net exports.
Whither the British pound? We look for sterling to depreciate a bit further against the dollar over the course of the year as the Bank of England cuts rates further. However, we expect the pound will continue to grind higher vis-à-vis the euro in the months ahead. Whereas the Bank of England has been very proactive in cutting rates, the European Central Bank has not been as aggressive. Therefore, the recession in the Euro-zone may linger longer than the downturn in the United Kingdom.
Published on
Mon, Jan 12 2009, 10:37 GMT
Archive
- Recovery Yes, But at What Pace? Jobs?
Published On Fri, Oct 30 2009, 18:52 GMT
- Public Policy Shapes the Recovery
Published On Mon, Oct 26 2009, 10:33 GMT
- No Straight Line Expansion
Published On Mon, Oct 19 2009, 07:27 GMT
- Labor Market Concerns Cloud the Economic Outlook
Published On Mon, Oct 12 2009, 07:46 GMT
- Change Yes, But Not Very Comfortable
Published On Mon, Oct 5 2009, 08:14 GMT
[ View All ]
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
| P.O. Box 025383 Miami, FL 33102-5383
https://www.wellsfargo.com/ | sam.bullard@wachovia.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks.
If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets.
Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues
The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement.
Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account.
Fast Markets
A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system.
In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors.
Potential Risks in a Fast Market
"Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate
Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive.
Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead
In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading.
Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile
IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price.
Large Orders in Fast Markets
Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5.
In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees.
This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted.
Online Trading and Duplicate Orders
Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed.
Limit Orders Can Limit Risk
A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected.
Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets
During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent.
Freeriding is Prohibited
Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security.
Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days.
Stop and Stop Limit Orders
A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better.
Glossary
All or None (AON)
A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed.
Day Order
A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session.
Fill or Kill
An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled.
Good Til Canceled (GTC)
An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order).
Immediate or Cancel
An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled.
Limit Order
An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases).
Maintenance Call
A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity.
Margin Requirement
Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales.
Market Makers
NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds.
Market Order
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace.
Specialists
Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy.
Stop
An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price.
Stop Limit
An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order.
These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
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