It was a quiet week for NZ data, with all eyes on the Reserve Bank of NZ and their review of the official cash rate on Thursday.
No one expects a change in rates, but the press statement will be keenly dissected for hints regarding when the first hike is likely to come.
This week saw another modest upwards revision to Consensus growth forecasts for New Zealand’s trading partners for 2009 and 2010. This is the fifth consecutive upward revision. Growth next year is now expected to be only a little below average, though in context this is a fairly modest recovery considering it follows a record contraction in 2009. However, much worse was widely expected not very long ago, and the speed of recovery has taken the RBNZ by surprise, along with the associated recovery in NZ’s commodity prices. Growth in 2009 and 2010 is now expected to be almost 1% higher cumulatively than the RBNZ expected just last month.
The other data release was net migration and visitor numbers. Monthly net migration surprised slightly on the downside, with arrivals of foreigners failing to bounce back as much as expected from a weak August. Monthly seasonally adjusted net migration is flattening out as the Australian economy outbids ours, but annual migration will still continue to pick up strongly over the rest of the year to a peak of around 23,000, stimulating the housing market and retail.
