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Weekly Economic Letter
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Inflation: changing perceptions
Mon, Jun 8 2009, 07:42 GMT
by Economic and Strategy Team
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was virtually unchanged in April month over month. Larger-thanexpected declines in food and energy prices were partially offset by a second consecutive sizeable jump in the tobacco index. Increases in medical care costs and newvehicle prices, as well as an upturn in lodging away from home, contributed to push the CPI ex food and energy up on the month. Year over year, instead, while the all-items CPI was down 0.7%, core CPI was up 1.9%. Even excluding the tobacco effect, core CPI would still have advanced roughly 1.7%.
Alternative measures of underlying inflation were showing some dispersion in April. This is quite evident when annualized month-over-month rates of change are compared. On that basis, the median CPI rose 2.1% against only 0.9% for the 16% trimmed-mean CPI, which is far below the 3.1% registered by the conventional core CPI. Many studies suggest that the trimmed-mean measure is a better indicator of the underlying-inflation trend. Currently, it is certainly showing a pattern consistent with what would be expected in the context of a U.S. economy that slipped into recession 17 months ago.
Published on Mon, Jun 8 2009, 07:48 GMT
Archive
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National Bank of Canada
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Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements about the 2009 Economic and Financial Outlook. Such statements are subject to risk and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors, including legislative or regulatory developments, competition, technological change and economic conditions in Canada, North America or internationally. These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers should not rely unduly on National Bank of Canada’s forward-looking statements. This presentation may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of National Bank.Related reports
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