No spectacular gains are expected from the January US jobs report, but it should not be disappointing either. Consensus points to a continuation of moderate growth on the US labor market, in line with the gains seen in recent months.
The majority of the analysts polled for the NFP forecast report (9 out of 21) see the US economy adding 150-180K of jobs in January, while unemployment remaining below 8%. Adam Narczewski, who predicts an increase in the range of 130-160K, believes that "the labor market in the US has achieved some level of stability" while Ilian Yotov, who points to a 168K rise suggests that we will witness "another month of decent job creation in line with the recent trend of improvement in the U.S. labor market."
Richard C. Lee's estimates are somewhat lower, in the 100-120K range. As the expert notes: "Employment trends from recent surveys have noted no real resurgence or deterrence in employment growth for the beginning of the year." Valeria Bednarik reminds that "despite improving, the US employment situation continues to weight strongly in the overall country's growth, one of the major's challenge in the US recovery," while Alberto Muñoz adds: "If NFP remains in the same area during the year, then there will be a lot of pressure on the Fed and its Quantitative Easing program."
US NFP numbers for January will be released on February 1 at 13:30 GMT.
Below you will find the complete commentaries of some of the contributing experts.
"Non-farm payrolls are likely to come in on par. Employment trends from recent surveys have noted no real resurgence or deterrence in employment growth for the beginning of the year – which is likely to be in the 100,000-120,000 range."
The published data revealed an average monthly gain in payrolls of 162,000 from April 2011 to March 2012, this will likely be revised upward by 32,000 per month to 194,000/month (386,000/12). This, of course, paints a somewhat better picture of the labour market. The preliminary data show upside revisions to Private sector payrolls (+453,000) and downward revisions to government payrolls (-67,000). The largest upward revisions were in the broad Trade, Transportation & Utilities grouping (+145,000), Leisure & Hospitality (+99,000), and Construction (+85,000). The most notable downward revision was in Manufacturing (-25,000).
The history has been that the preliminary benchmark revisions tend to be very close to the official revisions. The preliminary March 2011, revision was +192,000, was revised slightly lower to +162,000 in the official release. Therefore, our VERY early call is for an increase of +192,000 to +212,000 with the unemployment rate at 7.6%.
"Non Farm Payrolls was bang in line with majority of estimates last month which almost stumped the markets. We have had consistently encouraging numbers and I see no real reason to expect anything than another positive NFP figure. When I say positive I mean just that one in positive territory. I do not see a huge jump or anything out of the ordinary from this release. I expect a figure of 102k with a range of 65k to 135k. With all the scaremongering over the dreaded ‘fiscal cliff’ all seemingly over and Obama set to do another 4 year term, dare I say for once the outlook for the US is good! Don’t get me wrong, I still see plenty of room in the S&P on the downside still. We have broken out of the monthly down channel but coincidentally we will be approaching a 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3485, this could be a key pivotal point to look at from a technical perspective."
"It seems to me the labor market in the U.S has achieved some level of stability. A decent amount of new jobs is being added in the economy each month and I do not expect a sudden change in this trend. More interesting are the weekly unemployment claims reports, which recently showed a big decline (down to 335K). This might have been a onetime thing but it still proves the labor market is steadily rebounding. On the upcoming NFP report I do not expect large deviations from the recent readings. The addition of new jobs in the non-farm sector in January should be in the +130-160K range and the unemployment rate should remain below 8%."
"The US economy probably gained around 150K jobs in January. The unemployment rate will likely remain unchanged. Recent figures continue the same trend of slow and steady growth. It is important to note that this NFP publication is made on the first day of the month. This means that less hints will be available to analysts. So, there is a higher chance of surprise, and we will probably see a bit more volatility than in previous releases."
"Consensus forecasts point to another month of decent job creation in line with the recent trend of improvement in the U.S. labor market. The U.S. economy is expected to add 168K jobs in January compared with 155K in December, while the unemployment rate stays unchanged at 7.8%. An upbeat NFP report could boost investor sentiment and risk appetite, and could weigh on the U.S. dollar."
"If you buy the story that the incoming fiscal cliff, and the uncertainties about the way it would be avoided, was the main concern of the US business sector at the end of 2012, you might be confident that the labour marker is set to rebound in early 2013. Even if the outlook for federal government finances is not completely cleared, short-term risks have been dramatically reduced. As we do think that the bulk of the weakness in both non-residential investment and non-farm payrolls was due to blurred perspectives, the recent decisions (avoidance of the fiscal cliff and temporary suspension of the federal debt ceiling) should allow a bounce back. Latest data, as weekly initial claims and employment component of business surveys, tend to support our view. In January, we thus expect an acceleration in monthly job creations, in the vicinity of 180K."
"Last December NFP should be considered positive as many companies were very worried about the fiscal cliff, so it indicated that they were still hiring employees. Anyway it looks like there's not too much momentum in the US labor market as job growth remains blocked in the 140K-150K range. If NFP remains in the same area during the year, then there will be a lot of pressure on the Fed and its Quantitative Easing program."
"Despite improving, the US employment situation continues to weight strongly in the overall country's growth, one of the major's challenge in the US recovery. Decreasing weekly unemployment claims readings point for a good number this month, yet I won't be expecting any up-beating surprise: we may see a number around 135K for January, while unemployment rate will likely remain around 7.7/7.8%."
The majority of the analysts polled for the NFP forecast report (9 out of 21) see the US economy adding 150-180K of jobs in January, while unemployment remaining below 8%. Adam Narczewski, who predicts an increase in the range of 130-160K, believes that "the labor market in the US has achieved some level of stability" while Ilian Yotov, who points to a 168K rise suggests that we will witness "another month of decent job creation in line with the recent trend of improvement in the U.S. labor market."
Richard C. Lee's estimates are somewhat lower, in the 100-120K range. As the expert notes: "Employment trends from recent surveys have noted no real resurgence or deterrence in employment growth for the beginning of the year." Valeria Bednarik reminds that "despite improving, the US employment situation continues to weight strongly in the overall country's growth, one of the major's challenge in the US recovery," while Alberto Muñoz adds: "If NFP remains in the same area during the year, then there will be a lot of pressure on the Fed and its Quantitative Easing program."
US NFP numbers for January will be released on February 1 at 13:30 GMT.
| 181-210K | Bill Hubard |
| 151-180K | Alexandra Estiot, Kathy Lien, Nik Kalsi, Phil Carr, Rob Booker, Brian Kahn, David Pegler, Greg Michalowski, Ilian Yotov |
| 121-150K | Adam Narczewski, Valeria Bednarik, Alberto Muñoz, Gus Farrow, Joseph Trevisani, Mark De La Paz, Yohay Elam |
| 90-120K | Dale J Pinkert, Mauricio Carillo, Richard Lee, Steve Ruffley |
Below you will find the complete commentaries of some of the contributing experts.
Richard C. Lee - Forex Analyst at FXstreet.com:
"Non-farm payrolls are likely to come in on par. Employment trends from recent surveys have noted no real resurgence or deterrence in employment growth for the beginning of the year – which is likely to be in the 100,000-120,000 range."Bill Hubard - Chief Economist at Markets.com:
The published data revealed an average monthly gain in payrolls of 162,000 from April 2011 to March 2012, this will likely be revised upward by 32,000 per month to 194,000/month (386,000/12). This, of course, paints a somewhat better picture of the labour market. The preliminary data show upside revisions to Private sector payrolls (+453,000) and downward revisions to government payrolls (-67,000). The largest upward revisions were in the broad Trade, Transportation & Utilities grouping (+145,000), Leisure & Hospitality (+99,000), and Construction (+85,000). The most notable downward revision was in Manufacturing (-25,000).The history has been that the preliminary benchmark revisions tend to be very close to the official revisions. The preliminary March 2011, revision was +192,000, was revised slightly lower to +162,000 in the official release. Therefore, our VERY early call is for an increase of +192,000 to +212,000 with the unemployment rate at 7.6%.
Steve Ruffley - Owner of Tradermaker.com:
"Non Farm Payrolls was bang in line with majority of estimates last month which almost stumped the markets. We have had consistently encouraging numbers and I see no real reason to expect anything than another positive NFP figure. When I say positive I mean just that one in positive territory. I do not see a huge jump or anything out of the ordinary from this release. I expect a figure of 102k with a range of 65k to 135k. With all the scaremongering over the dreaded ‘fiscal cliff’ all seemingly over and Obama set to do another 4 year term, dare I say for once the outlook for the US is good! Don’t get me wrong, I still see plenty of room in the S&P on the downside still. We have broken out of the monthly down channel but coincidentally we will be approaching a 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3485, this could be a key pivotal point to look at from a technical perspective."Adam Narczewski - Financial Analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB:
"It seems to me the labor market in the U.S has achieved some level of stability. A decent amount of new jobs is being added in the economy each month and I do not expect a sudden change in this trend. More interesting are the weekly unemployment claims reports, which recently showed a big decline (down to 335K). This might have been a onetime thing but it still proves the labor market is steadily rebounding. On the upcoming NFP report I do not expect large deviations from the recent readings. The addition of new jobs in the non-farm sector in January should be in the +130-160K range and the unemployment rate should remain below 8%."Yohay Elam - Analyst at Forex Crunch:
"The US economy probably gained around 150K jobs in January. The unemployment rate will likely remain unchanged. Recent figures continue the same trend of slow and steady growth. It is important to note that this NFP publication is made on the first day of the month. This means that less hints will be available to analysts. So, there is a higher chance of surprise, and we will probably see a bit more volatility than in previous releases."Ilian Yotov - FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex:
"Consensus forecasts point to another month of decent job creation in line with the recent trend of improvement in the U.S. labor market. The U.S. economy is expected to add 168K jobs in January compared with 155K in December, while the unemployment rate stays unchanged at 7.8%. An upbeat NFP report could boost investor sentiment and risk appetite, and could weigh on the U.S. dollar."Alexandra Estiot - Senior Economist at BNP Paribas:
"If you buy the story that the incoming fiscal cliff, and the uncertainties about the way it would be avoided, was the main concern of the US business sector at the end of 2012, you might be confident that the labour marker is set to rebound in early 2013. Even if the outlook for federal government finances is not completely cleared, short-term risks have been dramatically reduced. As we do think that the bulk of the weakness in both non-residential investment and non-farm payrolls was due to blurred perspectives, the recent decisions (avoidance of the fiscal cliff and temporary suspension of the federal debt ceiling) should allow a bounce back. Latest data, as weekly initial claims and employment component of business surveys, tend to support our view. In January, we thus expect an acceleration in monthly job creations, in the vicinity of 180K."Alberto Muñoz - Forex Analyst at FXstreet.com:
"Last December NFP should be considered positive as many companies were very worried about the fiscal cliff, so it indicated that they were still hiring employees. Anyway it looks like there's not too much momentum in the US labor market as job growth remains blocked in the 140K-150K range. If NFP remains in the same area during the year, then there will be a lot of pressure on the Fed and its Quantitative Easing program."Valeria Bednarik - Chief Analyst with FXstreet.com:
"Despite improving, the US employment situation continues to weight strongly in the overall country's growth, one of the major's challenge in the US recovery. Decreasing weekly unemployment claims readings point for a good number this month, yet I won't be expecting any up-beating surprise: we may see a number around 135K for January, while unemployment rate will likely remain around 7.7/7.8%."
