Rob Booker - Trader and author at WR Booker & Co
My forecast on the NFP number is -76,000. I think the impact on the USD will be substantial. It will probably move the USD out of its current range against the EUR/USD. It's a dangerous time for many traders - near the end of the summer, when things get a little bit wacky, and with a major economic report just around the corner. I do believe that this report will set the tone for trading for the first half of September - a strong jobs report would most likely be very bullish for the USD, because it would be very unexpected. Most people already expect a weak jobs report, so the impact of such a number would perhaps be subdued.I don't have much to say about private jobs except that employers seem unwilling to add permanent workers, and until they do, the economy is going to struggle. Consumer spending can't grow without private jobs, and without consumer spending, we could see deflation. That would be a terrible thing, and very hard to contain. But it's all speculation right now.
Kathy Lien - Director of Currency Research at GFT
Change in Non-Farm Payrolls: -100K; Unemployment Rate: 9.60%.A stronger payrolls report is not the same as positive payrolls. Non-farm payrolls are simply expected to fall by a smaller amount while private sector payrolls are expected grow but in no way will these numbers be characteristic of a strong labor market report. As usual, USD/JPY will have the cleanest reaction to the non-farm payrolls report while high beta currency pairs such as the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD will respond to risk appetite.
Dr. Sivaraman - CEO and owner at i-knowindices.com
The expected data release could be nominally improved when compared to previous month or lesser like -115k. That could trigger risk appetite moves. The expected market moves before and after NFP event – Early European session quick rise and then drop much before NFP data release and then initial volatile moves soon after announcement followed by upward spike in EURO and GBP till end of US session for week end.Adam Narczewski - Financial analyst at X-Trade Brokers, XTB
The U.S labor market is in a difficult situation and I do not see an improvement coming any time soon. The economy is struggling and I expect another monthly drop in non-farm payrolls. This time also have to take into account all the temporary workers taking part in the U.S census, performed every ten years. August was the month when those temporary workers finished their jobs so the decrease in non-farm payrolls can be larger than last month’s. The improvement in the private sector cannot be expected either as the number of jobs is growing on a decreasing rate and I expect the same this month. The ADP employment report (jobs in the private sector) might show an increase but smaller than previously while I expect the non-farm payrolls to drop by 150K (-150K).Ilian Yotov - FX Strategist and Founder at AllThingsForex
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation report will have the potential to disappoint investors, especially if the private sector of the U.S. economy loses jobs in August for the first time in 2010. The consensus forecasts point to smaller jobs creation by U.S. companies, with private payrolls expected to add 44 K- a lesser amount than the 71 K jobs created in July. The non-farm payrolls are forecasted to show the U.S. economy losing between 106 K to 120 K jobs.
Sinan Saleh - Analyst at ecPulse.com
The labor market in the United States remains very weak since employers are opting not to add new jobs, especially amid the recent weakness in economic activities, as the recovery seems to be losing pace. Accordingly, we expect more layoffs to be seen over the course of August, while we should also focus on the number of added jobs in the private sector.The Non-farm payrolls will probably be in the region of -80K to -100K, while we expect unemployment to edge higher in August to 9.6%.
