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U.S Market Update

Wed, Apr 30 2008, 15:30 GMT
by Trade The News Staff

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- Equities are pushing higher ahead of FOMC announcement. The early news flow was generally positive, leading off with an ADP employment report that indicated job growth of 10K v the -60K expected. Q1 advanced GDP confirmed a slowing US economy but the 0.6% reading did narrowly beat expectations, while the price index was elevated at 2.6% but missed consensus at 3%. After the New York open, the Chicago PMI came in below the 50 level, beating expectations and indicating growth. The Dow is getting a boost from a positive reaction to Procter +3% and GM +8.4% earnings reports. Citigroup -3% is heading in the other direction after successfully raising $4.5B through a common stock offering at $25.27. Solar names are forging higher after FSLR +6% earnings results. Energy futures have made a notable move lower following weekly inventory data that showed close to a 4M barrel build in crude inventories. June crude is trading below the $115. Treasury prices are little changed with the 10-year yield holding at 3.80% and the two-year offering 2.35%. The May Fed fund future still sees roughly 80% odds the Fed cuts by 25 basis points this afternoon.

- In currencies a plethora of Euro Zone data provided fresh evidence that the EU is encountering some headwinds on the growth front as well as a long-awaited pause in its inflationary hump. Dealers have been noting good USD buying from various types of market players throughout the European morning, but this momentum was tempered in early US trading. The USD is mixed against the European pairs as it has yet to break some key technical levels that would allow additional bullish momentum. EUR/USD was trading at the lower end of its 1.5510 to 1.5630 range. Chatter of sovereign names buying EUR/USD on approach of 1.5510. USD/CHF continues to probe its channel resistance line at 1.0430 approach. Overall, the tone is shifting to a wait-and-see attitude given the FOMC decision and statement due out later in the US session. Market focus is now building towards the Friday release of US payrolls. The ADP employment index saw a slight gain, while the Chi PMI had its employment component drop to a 35.3 reading against a 44.6 prior. ECB's Trichet reiterated that the central bank is paying particularly close attention to wage deals and is seeking to avoid second-round effects. Comments were made after Deutsche Post announced a wage settlement with the Verdi Union in the 4% range (which is above the ECB target rate of inflation). JPY is maintaining a softer tone following the BOJ rate announcement and lowering of its 2008 GDP estimate to 1.55 from its 2.1% prior view. Firmer equity markets are also contributing to JPY softness among the majors. USD/JPY is trading at the 104.60, EUR/JPY at 162.80 and GBP/JPY at 206.50. Dealers noted chatter circulating that the BIS was on the offer in USD/JPY near 105, with some USD buy stops building above that level. CAD was firmer following raw material pricing data for March. Canada is also grappling with the concept of lower growth and higher inflationary headwinds, themes that other G7 members are also encountering. USD/CAD reproaching parity, with dealers noting some USD sell stops building below the 0.9970 level.


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