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UK Housing Market Tulip Mania Goes Kaput!

Mon, Mar 10 2008, 13:22 GMT
by Nadeem Walayat

Marketoracle.co.uk

Seasonally adjusted house prices fell in February by 0.3% to £196,649 (Halifax:SA), a fall of £600. None seasonally adjusted house prices are now down £7,600 since the peak made in August 2007 which equates to an average drop of £1,266 per month in equity. This is against an interest rate implied cut of 0.5% on interest repayments on an average UK mortgage of £150,000, or just £62.50 per month (Rate cuts inline with Sept 07 forecast). Therefore housing market commentators expecting UK interest rate cuts to support the housing market need to revisit their methodology of calculating the difference between implied impact of rate cuts i.e. £62.50 per month against that of the loss of equity per month of £1,266. I say implied impact of rate cuts as the credit crisis has ensured that the spread between bank mortgage rates and the Bank of England Base Rate has widened, therefore effectively not entirely passing on the rate cut to mortgage customers.

The Market Oracle forecast as of August 2007 - Is for fall in average UK house prices of 15% (minimum) over 2 years from August 2007 to August 2009 (Data:Halifax NSA). As the below graphs illustrate the housing market remains on track to meet this target.

The strong bullish trend in house prices was sustained by the tulip mania mentality of bidding up house prices to avoid missing out on future house price gains with little regard or consideration given to interest rate costs. Similarly as house prices fall, falling interest rates are not going to help support the crumbling housing market. This is something that I have re-iterated several times over the last 6 months as the articles archive illustrates.

The UK economy and Housing market has entered a downward spiral, similar to which the US market has been experiencing, which is approximately a year ahead of the UK in terms of house prices trend. During 2008 some 1.4 million UK home owners are to experience their fixed interest rate mortgages taken out under easy credit terms and at low interest rates during the housing boom, reset at higher interest rate levels and find themselves unable to fix again at favorable rates due to the mortgage banks being decimated by credit and debt market losses and in most cases unable to offer anything other than the high standard variable rates, especially to those on high multiple of earnings ratios (X3.5 salary) or those with lack of equity (less than 10%), and thus these mortgage re-setters are at high risks of repossession which are expected to explode in number to beyond 70,000 repossessions this year , which will feed the banking crisis and house price deflation cycle.

Home Owners Psychological Shock Coming - May 08

The UK Housing market's annual rate of house price inflation is on track to go negative in April 2008 for data to be released during May 2008. This is expected to act as a psychological shock to the housing market participants. The complacency that continues to exist today will turn to fear at that point as speculative buy to let investors feel the adrenaline rush and palpitations of the actual consequences of the real loss of capital of tens of thousands of pounds.

Even today the mortgage banks and estate agencies talk up the market by denying that house price inflation is about to go negative. As illustrated by Britain's biggest mortgage bank, the Halifax that continues to predict that there will be no fall in UK house prices this year. Martin Ellis, chief economist said "that strong underlying fundamentals will continue to support the market throughout 2008". "Over the past year, the average price of a home in the UK has increased by £4,390 to £196,649," he commented. "Whilst the housing market has slowed over the past six months, it is supported by sound economic fundamentals. Interest rate cuts by the Bank of England are also helping to underpin house prices,". The up beat note is reminiscence of the last housing bear market when a falling market was consistently followed by bullish announcements by those with a vested interest in keeping their jobs!

Sitting Fat on Equity Gains ?

Home owners who bought early into the boom and are now sitting on gains of 200% or more may think that in the light of a 15% drop there is nothing much to worry about need to reconsider how they calculate the impact of a 15% fall - A 15% nominal fall in house prices on a 200% gain is an effective loss of 22.5% of the gain (£200k examples) i.e. £200,000 X 15% = £30,000 house price fall; £30,000 / £133,333 Gain = 22.5% loss of gain. Add RPI inflation of 8.5% (over 2 years) and that's a real terms loss of 35% of the gain, on a £200k house that's equivalent to £47,000 (133,000 X 35%), ignoring inflation that is still a £30,000 nominal loss.

I have received several emails asking if I expect the UK housing market to bottom in August 2009. My response is that we are still at the beginning of the UK housing bear market that I expect to run to August 2009. There is no sign at this point in time to suggest that August 2009 will be a bottom as the UK economy by that time will be either in or close to being in recession. However, towards the end of this year (2008), I will be able to update the housing market forecast to beyond 2009.

Published on  Mon, Mar 10 2008, 13:39 GMT