http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-02-06.htmlPutting a Good Employment Number in Perspective When a College Education Isn’t Enough We’re All Turning Greek Who Can Afford Health Care? Everyone knows by now that the US is facing difficult choices. Depending on what assumptions you use, the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare are between $50 and $80 trillion and rising. It really doesn't matter, as there is no way that much money can be found, given the current system, even under the best of assumptions. Things not onlyMon, 06 Feb 2012 07:36:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-02-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-30.htmlTell Us What You Think We Want to Hear A Very Soft GDP Number Central Banks: A High-Wire Balancing Act What Does It All Mean? A Few Thoughts on LTRO Greek Exhaustion Syndrome This week we take a brief pause in our series on the choices facing the developed world to look at some items that are catching my attention. We will get back to the US next week, as somehow I think we will not solve our problems between now and next Friday, and there will be plenty left for us to talk about. So today weMon, 30 Jan 2012 06:17:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-23.htmlChoices, Debt, and the Endgame Staring into the Abyss An Unintended (and Very Negative) Consequence A Preview of Coming Attractions Hallucinogenic Data and Other Fun Activities Gentlemen, Choose Your Disaster What Europe Should Do South Africa and Sweden "If we want everything to stay as it is, everything will have to change." – from The Leopard by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lamedusa "The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would haveMon, 23 Jan 2012 06:29:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-16.htmlSolving the Mayan Code To Solve the Crisis You Must Solve Three Problems Getting Simple About Europe How Much Risk Do You Want in a Government Bond? Do You Have a Spare €1.5 Trillion? One of the interesting things about being in Hong Kong is that I get to see the weekend edition of the Financial Times 12 hours early. And the headlines were not all that pleasant. As I promised last week, we will cast our eyes to Europe and ponder what is in store for Europe for the year and the next five years.Mon, 16 Jan 2012 06:44:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-09.htmlThe Consequences of Path Dependency There’s No Going Back The End of the Debt Supercycle The Time for Hard Choices Once to every man and nation, comes the moment to decide, In the strife of truth with falsehood, for the good or evil side; Some great cause, some great decision, offering each the bloom or blight, And the choice goes by forever, 'twixt that darkness and that light. – James Lowell, 1845 God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change theMon, 09 Jan 2012 07:08:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-02.htmlWhat Next? Where Next? A World with Too Much Debt Debt Restructuring and Write-Offs The Euro Zone: Pouring Fuel on the Flames What If… ? The Year(s) Ahead "Whoever cannot seek the unforeseen sees nothing for the known way is an impasse." ― Heraclitus, Fragments Which path will we take? If we could only grow our way out of our sovereign debt problems. But growing debt creates even more problems if not dealt with, making it even more difficult to deal with; yet getting the debt and deficit underMon, 02 Jan 2012 06:03:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2012-01-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-12-26.htmlTough Year! Three Opponents in Investing We Have Met the Enemy and They Is Us We Are Tool Makers Individual Investors Have Certain Advantages Over Institutions We All Need a Coach It’s Christmas Eve and that time of year when we start thinking about what we did in the past year and what we want to do in the next. Why do we make the mistakes we make (over and over and over?) and how do we avoid them in the future? If it seems to be part of our basic human condition, that’s because it is.Mon, 26 Dec 2011 06:08:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-12-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-12-19.htmlThe Center Cannot Hold Where Is My Return to the Mean? The High Cost of Leaving Some Quick Thoughts on the Keystone XL Pipeline Look Over My Shoulder for Forecast 2012 LA, NYC, Hong Kong, and Singapore Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst AreMon, 19 Dec 2011 06:13:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-12-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-12-12.htmlYou Can Check Out but You Can’t Leave Germany Is Saying that Europe Needs a Dad An Empty Seat at the Table Germany Takes the Long View We have come to the end of yet another European Summit that was supposed to be the one to fix the problem. If you are confused as to what happened then you are not alone. Was it something we will look back on in ten years and say, "This was where it all started," or will it be viewed as just another meeting in what will prove to be a string of even moreMon, 12 Dec 2011 06:12:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-12-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-12-05.htmlThe World Slips into Recession Central Bankers of the World, Unite! New York, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Cape Town And My Conference It is now common to use the term bazooka when referring the actions of governments and central banks as they try to avert a credit crisis. And this week we saw a coordinated effort by central banks to use their bazookas to head off another 2008-style credit disaster. The market reacted as if the crisis is now over and we can get on to the next bull run. Yet, weMon, 05 Dec 2011 06:37:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-12-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-11-28.htmlChanging the Rules When Even Germany Fails European Inverted Yield Curves Time to Review the Bang!Moment The Risk of Contagion in the US Time to Start Watching China Angela Merkel is leading the call for a rule change, a rewiring of the basic treaty that binds the EU. But is it both too much and too late? The market action suggests that time is indeed running out, and so we’ll look at the likely consequences. Then I glance over the other way and take notice of news out of China that may be ofMon, 28 Nov 2011 06:31:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-11-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-11-21.htmlJust Say “Nein” And Then There Is France How Will it Play Out? Some Thoughts on the Super Committee Europe is again at center stage. At conferences and meetings and in private conversations, it is the topic of the hour. I have thought a lot this week about Europe and its impact, so once again we delve into what is an evolving situation. This time, we look at possible impacts on the markets, as we ponder the questions, “Are we back to 2008?” and “Is there a Lehman in our future?” and I try onceMon, 21 Nov 2011 06:16:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-11-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-11-14.htmlWhere Can I Find €3 Trillion? When Leverage Comes Back to Haunt You The German Dilemma So How Do We Solve the Eurozone Problem? Where Is the ECB Printing Press? Europe remains the focus of markets, and rightly so. But the picture is not as clear as one would like. Different analysts point to different problems – if only this one problem could be solved, then all this would go away, they tend to say. Sadly, it is not one problem but three that must be solved, and none of them is easy. InMon, 14 Nov 2011 06:40:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-11-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-11-07.htmlStupid Government Tricks Let’s Tax the Millionaires I find myself in Liam's taxi on the beautiful drive to Kilkenny through the Irish countryside for a few hours this very early Friday morning, so what better time to begin writing about employment than in a country that is struggling, just as most of the developed world is, to find good jobs for its people. I'm on my way to a conference that will talk about the economics that is driving the world's leading governments to distraction in Cannes.Mon, 07 Nov 2011 06:32:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-11-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-10-31.htmlA Definite Plan (Minus Those Sticky Details) Dear Mario When Leverage Is the Kind-of Answer Meanwhile Back in Portugal Let’s Just Change the Rules Where is the peace dividend that was supposed to come after the end of the Cold War? Where are the fruits of the amazing gains in efficiency that technology has afforded? It has been eaten by the bureaucracy that manages our every move on this earth. The voracious and insatiable monster here is called the Federal Code that calls on thousands ofMon, 31 Oct 2011 06:32:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-10-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-10-17.htmlCan "It" Happen Here? How Could This All Happen? Currencies, Culture, and Chaos What Causes Hyperinflation? A Very Frank Idea But What About the $70 Trillion in Off-Balance-Sheet Debt? New York, London, South Africa, and the Future "Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans." - R.H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926 "By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, anMon, 17 Oct 2011 06:08:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-10-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-10-10.htmlTwo Insights from Ireland The Irish Chamber of Commerce An Irish Haircut Just as only four short years ago it was All Subprime, All the Time, and then it was the Credit Crisis, now it is Europe. (When) will Greece default and which banks will implode as a result? Is there another banking crisis in our future? I just came back from a whirlwind four-country visit to Europe, and I will try to offer a few insights. This week we start with Ireland, move to the problem of Europe at large and, ifMon, 10 Oct 2011 07:24:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-10-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-10-03.html(Sorry for the letter being late. There was a major technical difficulty. – The Editing Team) This week I am in Ireland and going from meeting to meeting with a wide variety of people. And this week's letter is a wide-ranging interview with me, conducted by that doyen of financial-world interviews, Kate Welling. She really is one of the best, and she has graciously given me permission to share the interview with you this week, while I am researching next week's letter on Ireland and Europe. IMon, 03 Oct 2011 07:43:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-10-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-09-26.htmlIn this issue: 400 Billion Yellow Aspirins The US Government Is in the "No-Money-Down" Mortgage Business Crash Alert? Is Social Security a Ponzi? Catastrophic Success Europe, and Breaking the Light-Speed Barrier Breathes there a man with brain so dead Who never to himself hath said, "Social Security looks like a Ponzi Scheme?" - With apologies to Sir Walter Scott Today we look at Social Security. In the US, Texas Governor Perry touched the third rail of Social Security and called it a PonziMon, 26 Sep 2011 06:30:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-09-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-09-19.htmlIn this issue: Bailing Out Europe’s Banks WWGD? What Is the Fed Really Risking? What Will the Fed Do Next Week? Twist and Shout? What in the wide, wild world of monetary policy is the Fed doing, giving essentially unlimited funds to European banks? What are they seeing that we do not? And is this a precursor to even more monetary easing at this next week’s extraordinary FOMC meeting, expanded to a two-day session by Bernanke? Can we say “Operation Twist?” Or maybe “Twist and Shout?” Not manyMon, 19 Sep 2011 07:27:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-09-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-09-12.htmlIn this issue: The Consequences of Austerity Euro Break-Up – The Consequences Welcome to the Hotel California The Slow March to Recession in the US Preparing for a Credit Crisis What Can You Do About the Weather? Europe, Houston, New York, and South Africa “I am sure the Euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.” - Romano Prodi, EUMon, 12 Sep 2011 07:03:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-09-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-09-05.htmlIn this issue: The Flat Earth (Employment) Society Let’s Do a Little Time Travel The Implications of an Older Workforce How Do We “Fix” the Employment Problem? Some Thoughts on Gold This week we briefly look at yesterday morning’s dismal unemployment report, then drop back and survey some other very eye-opening data on employment. Some groups are (surprise) doing better than others. What would it take to get us back to “normal,” whatever that is? I give you a link to some webinars I will beMon, 05 Sep 2011 06:32:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-09-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-29.htmlIn this issue: What Is the CBO Seeing (or Smoking?) The End of the World, Part 1 Who Will Rescue the Rescuers? The Problems of Debt in the Eurozone Thoughts on Jackson Hole Fine, then. Uh oh, overflow, population, common food, but it'll do to Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its own needs, listen to your heart bleed – dummy with the rapture and the revered and the right, right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty psyched. It's the end of the world asMon, 29 Aug 2011 05:39:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-22.htmlIn this issue: The Recession of 2011? The Streettalk/Mauldin Economic Output Index Is There a Recession in Our Future? The Bright Side of Europe’s Dysfunctionality The “Treasonous” Fed Some Final Thoughts The data this week was just ugly. Even the uptick in the leading economic indicators, seized upon by so many talking heads, must have a large asterisk beside it. This week we look at the increasing probability that we are headed for recession, and the follow-on implications. Then I take aMon, 22 Aug 2011 07:07:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-15.htmlIn this issue: The Big Bang Moment Bang, Indeed! "It's the Economy, Dummkopf!" The Long and Winding Road to Crisis Are We Already in Recession? So What Can We Do? I came away from Maine, and meeting with some of the most astute economists in the world, with a series of impressions that will be the core of this week's letter. On Friday night, S&P downgraded US debt, and of course I need to comment on that. But as we talked the next two days and into the nights, I came increasingly to theMon, 15 Aug 2011 07:05:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-08.htmlIn this issue: The Case for Going Global Is Stronger Than Ever The US Markets Are Still In Trouble Undercapitalization Emerging Markets Still Undervalued Global Capital Shift Is Accelerating The Biggest Growth Will Be in the Most Obvious Places (and Sectors) Conventional Diversification Won’t Cut It Any Longer Risks (and there are plenty) As will be clear below, I had finished an earlier version of this week’s e-letter, but the events of the last few minutes require a few paragraphs. As IMon, 08 Aug 2011 06:08:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-01.htmlIn this issue: An Economy at Stall Speed Is There a Recession in Our Future? What I Told the Senators Escalating Eurozone Interbank Liquidity Crisis: Dollar-Euro Impact? The GDP numbers for the second quarter came in, and there is no way to spin them as anything but ugly. And the revisions were worse. We simply have to take a few pages to look at them. And, as I noted last Monday in the Outside the Box, I met with some ten Senators Monday afternoon (as well as Congressmen in the morning), plusMon, 01 Aug 2011 08:43:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-08-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-07-25.htmlIn this issue: Kicking the Can Yet Again It’s Not Just Greece Who is Going to Buy that Debt? You Have to Admire the Commitment The Problem with US Employment This week we start with the latest version of the solution to the European Crisis, the details of which are now coming out. Then we look at the global economy, and some signs that seem to point to a softening. And then there’s some data on US employment from a friend who has some thoughts about what we really need to do to getMon, 25 Jul 2011 07:07:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-07-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-06-13.htmlIn this issue: Is It Time to Buy a House? Time to Get Outraged by the Banks We Need a Mulligan A Congressional Investigation Is Needed How We Get Out of This 20 Policies to Implement to Create Jobs Tuscany, Kiev, Geneva, and London This week we look at data from the Bank of International Settlements, by which (if someone does a lot of work) you can figure out how much US banks have written in credit default swaps to banks in Europe on Greek, Irish, and Portuguese debt. The details should notMon, 13 Jun 2011 06:53:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-06-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-06-06.htmlIn this issue: Non-Farm Payrolls Even Worse than the Headline Velocity Rolls Over Intolerable Choices for the Eurozone And It Just Gets Worse Tuscany Do you feel as if you are suffering from some sort of economic whiplash? Between focusing on the European crisis (and it is a crisis), then looking at softening data in the US and political turmoil in Japan, not to mention the Middle East, you can be forgiven for feeling like someone just slammed into the back of your “economic recovery car.”Mon, 06 Jun 2011 07:41:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-06-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-05-30.v02.htmlIn this issue: Would You Like to Read Over My Shoulder? Dysfunctional, Thy Name Is Europe What Happens if the Greeks Default? Trigger Points and Evasive Action A Random Walk Through the Minefield Gaming the GDP Numbers “All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome.” – George Orwell “ Hindsight is not only clearer thanMon, 30 May 2011 07:34:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-05-30.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-05-23.v02.htmlEconomic versus Political Theory Trichet Says “Non!” Again What Will the EU Do? All for One Euro and One Euro for All? I have been doing a lot of reading this week, and today we look at some of the thoughts that keep coming to my mind. We’ll think about the declining importance of economic theory (which is a tragedy) and then cast our eyes to Europe, where a truely tragicomic drama is being performed. Who needs the movies when you have the EU? There is a lot to talk about. But first, some ofMon, 23 May 2011 07:22:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-05-23.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-05-09.htmlEnemy of Spain The Endgame, Part 2 Muddle Through, or Crisis? This week I finish the two-part letter on the Endgame and give you my thoughts on the economy and how it all plays out over the next five years. This is the second part of a speech I gave last week at the Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. It is a rather bold forecast, and fraught with peril and likely errors, but that is my job here. Damn the torpedoes, etc. I must offer one large caveat! If the facts change so will myMon, 09 May 2011 07:26:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-05-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-05-02.htmlIn this issue: The Endgame Headwinds If Something Can’t Happen… GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports Increasing Productivity I have written repeatedly about the Endgame in the weekly letter, as well as in a New York Times best-seller on the same topic. By Endgame I mean the period of time in which many of the developed economies of the world will either willingly deleverage or be forced to do so. This age of deleveraging will produce a fundamentally different economic environment, which the McKinseyMon, 02 May 2011 08:44:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-05-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-04-18.htmlIn this issue: The Cure for High Prices Let’s Rewind the Inflation Tape A Shocking Development Another Important European Election Today we once again think about the inflation/deflation debate, turn our eyes to Europe and the very interesting election happening there this Sunday, and speculate a little about what could derail the US economy. But first, a quick note to Conversations subscribers. We have just posted a new conversation I did with Rich Karlgaard (Forbes publisher) and AndyMon, 18 Apr 2011 06:40:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-04-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-03-28.htmlIn this issue: Loose Monetary Policies and Emerging Markets Bubbles in Emerging Markets Difficult Choices The central banks of the developed world are printing money and are engaged in a very-low-interest-rate regime. What does that mean for emerging markets? It is more than just a dilemma, it is a tri-lemma – they have problems not just coming and going but also sitting still! I am in Zurich tonight after a long day, with a 4:30 AM wake-up call to get back home, but deadlines are deadlines.Mon, 28 Mar 2011 07:27:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-03-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-02-21.htmlIn this issue: An Improving Economy But Where Are the Jobs? Time for the Fed to Declare Victory and Go Home I am on yet another plane and writing, and I’ll finish this letter in Phoenix. As I start, I am not sure of a theme for this week’s letter, so (with a tip of the hat to my friend Burton Malkiel, who I will see at Rob Arnott’s conference in a few months), today we do a Random Walk Around the Frontlines, surveying what’s going on in the world. We’ll start with the Fed and interest rates,Mon, 21 Feb 2011 05:56:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-02-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-02-14.htmlIn this issue: The Future of Public Debt A Bit of Background Drastic Measures The Future Public Debt Trajectory Debt Projections This week I find myself in Bangkok, and I must admit to enjoying the experience a great deal, so much so that I am going to preview a portion of my coming book, Endgame, so that I can go back out and play tourist. Next week I get back to my more or less regular schedule, but I think you will enjoy this first portion of chapter six, where we look at an important paperMon, 14 Feb 2011 06:10:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-02-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-02-07.htmlIn this issue: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions Three Structural Changes Lower Trend Growth "My best guess is that we’ll have a continued recovery, but it won’t feel terrific. Even though technically we’ll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment will still be high for a while and that means that a lot of people will be under financial stress." — Benjamin Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a Q&A at the Woodrow Wilson International CenterMon, 07 Feb 2011 06:18:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-02-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-01-31.htmlIn this issue: The Recent GDP Numbers – A Real Statistical Recovery Consumer Spending Rose? Where Was the Income? A Bubble in Complacency  Egypt This week I had the privilege of being on the same panel with former Comptroller General David Walker and former Majority Leader (and presidential candidate) Richard Gephardt. A Democrat to the left of me and a self-declared nonpartisan to the right, stuck in the middle and not knowing where the unrehearsed conversation would take us. As itMon, 31 Jan 2011 07:11:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2011-01-31.html