http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-11-16.htmlIn this issue: If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes? Last Business Standing Stimulus, What Stimulus? The Reality of Unemployment Let the Good Times Roll The Quick Double-Dip Scenario Phoenix, New York, and Thoughts on the Internet No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in a period of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering) analysisMon, 16 Nov 2009 06:29:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-11-09.htmlIn this issue: The Present Contains All Possible Futures The Ugly Unemployment Numbers Argentinian Disease The Austrian Solution The Eastern European Solution Japanese Disease The Glide Path Option Philadelphia, Orlando, and Phoenix The present contains all possible futures. But not all futures are good ones. Some can be quite cruel. The one we actually get is dictated by the choices we make. For the last few months I have been addressing the choices in front of us, economically speaking.Mon, 09 Nov 2009 06:00:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-11-02.htmlIn this issue:  Catching Argentinian Disease?  The Ascent of Money  The Independence of the Fed Threatened  A Few Quick Thoughts on the Dollar, GDP, and the Recession  Uruguay, Philadelphia, Orlando, and then... I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings. The conversation kept coming back to the prospects for the dollar, but I was just as interested in talking with money managers and business peopleMon, 02 Nov 2009 06:11:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-10-26.htmlIn this issue:  It's The Best of Times  The Elements of Deflation  It's More Than Half Full  Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay What's a Fed to do? We get talk about tightening and taking away the easy credit, but we got the fourth largest monetization on record last week. This week we examine the elements of deflation, look at some banking statistics that are not optimistic, and then I write a reply to my great friend Bill Bonner about why it's the best of times to be young. IMon, 26 Oct 2009 06:42:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-10-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-10-19.htmlIn this issue: Muddle Through, R.I.P? Savings Equal Investments Japanese Disease Who Will Buy the Debt? The New Muddle Through Economy On the Road Again I first wrote about the Muddle Through Economy in 2002, and the term has more or less become a theme we have returned to from time to time. In 2007 I wrote that we would indeed get back to a Muddle Through Economy after the end of the coming recession. If you Google the term, at least for the first four pages more than half the references areMon, 19 Oct 2009 06:55:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-10-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-10-12.htmlIn this issue: Killing the Goose What Were We Thinking? Let's Play Turn It Around Detroit, the Red Sox and the Yankees, and Traveling Too Much Peggy Noonan, maybe the most gifted essayist of our time, wrote a few weeks ago about the vague concern that many of us have that the monster looming up ahead of us has the potential (my interpretation) for not just plucking a few feathers from the goose that lays the golden egg (the US free-market economy), or stealing a few more of the valuable eggs,Mon, 12 Oct 2009 06:49:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-10-05.htmlIn this issue: Fingers of Instability Ubiquity, Complexity Theory, and Sandpiles Stability Leads to Instability A Stable Disequilibrium 3 Billion and Counting The Texas Senate Race - A Game Changer 60 Years and Counting "To trace something unknown back to something known is alleviating, soothing, gratifying and gives moreover a feeling of power. Danger, disquiet, anxiety attend the unknown - the first instinct is to eliminate these distressing states. First principle: any explanation is betterMon, 05 Oct 2009 06:23:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-10-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-09-28.htmlIn this issue: What We See And What We Don't See The Statistical Recovery A Double-Dip Recession? Welcome to the New Normal Birthdays, New Orleans, and then the Road Trip from Hell Unemployment is high and rising. But if the recession is over, won't employment start to rise? The quick answer is no. We look deeper into the Statistical Recovery and find yet more reasons to be concerned about near-term deflation. This week we consider all things unemployment and ponder the need to create at leastMon, 28 Sep 2009 07:44:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-09-21.htmlIn this issue: Elements of Deflation, Part 3 Outrageous! - Artificial Deflation! If You Are in a Hole, Stop Digging! The Hole in the FDIC How Can Just Four Stocks Be 40% of the NYSE Volume? New Orleans and a Mauldin Migration to Europe This week we continue to look at what powers the forces of deflation. As I continue to stress, getting the fundamental question answered correctly is the most important issue we face going forward. And the problem is that we cannot use the usual historicalMon, 21 Sep 2009 06:51:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-09-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-09-14.htmlIn this issue: Elements of Deflation, Part 2 The Velocity Factor Y=MV Sir, I Have Not Yet Begun to Print There Are No Good Choices Washington DC, San Diego, and New Orleans, etc. Just as water is formed by the basic elements hydrogen and oxygen, deflation has its own fundamental components. Last week we started exploring those elements, and this week we continue. I feel that the most fundamental of decisions we face in building investment portfolios is correctly deciding whether we are facedMon, 14 Sep 2009 10:21:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-09-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-09-07.htmlIn this issue: The Elements of Deflation The Failure of Economics The Super Trend Puzzle Final Demand and Income Unemployment Was NOT a Green Shoot Washington, DC, San Diego, and Johannesburg As every school child knows, water is formed by the two elements of hydrogen and oxygen in a very simple formula we all know as H2O. Today we start a series that starts with the question, What are the elements that comprise deflation? Far from being simple, the "equation" for deflation is as complex asMon, 07 Sep 2009 06:49:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-09-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-31.htmlIn this issue: An Uncomfortable Choice What Were We Thinking? Frugality is the New Normal And Then We Face the Real Problem The Teenagers Are in Control Choose Wisely Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, New Orleans, Detroit, and More We have arrived at this particular economic moment in time by the choices we have made, which now leave us with choices in our future that will be neither easy, convenient, nor comfortable. Sometimes there are just no good choices, only less-bad ones. In this week'sMon, 31 Aug 2009 07:13:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-24.htmlIn this issue: The Statistical Recovery, Part Three Capacity Utilization Set to Rise A Real Estate Green Shoot? The Deleveraging Society Some Thoughts on Secular Bear Markets Weddings and Ten Years of Thoughts From the Frontline This week we further explore why this recovery will be a Statistical Recovery, or one that, as someone said, is a recovery only a statistician could love. We look at capacity utilization, more on housing, some thoughts on debt and deflation, and some intriguing chartsMon, 24 Aug 2009 07:06:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-17.htmlIn this issue: The Statistical Recovery, Part Two A Recovery Statisticians Can Love A Few Thoughts on the Housing Market Some Thoughts from Maine Tulsa, Birthdays, Weddings, and Paul McCartney A few weeks ago I first used the term "statistical recovery" to describe the nature of today's economic environment. Today we are going to further explore that concept, as it is important to have a real understanding of what is happening. This coming "recovery" is not going to feel like a typical one,Mon, 17 Aug 2009 05:59:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-10.htmlIn this issue: Six impossible things before breakfast, or how EMH has damaged our industry The Dead Parrot of Finance The Queen of Hearts and impossible beliefs Slaves of some defunct economist Prima facie case against EMH -- Forever blowing bubbles The EMH 'Nuclear Bomb' The Efficient Market Hypothesis, according to Shiller, is one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought. EMH should be consigned to the dustbin of history. We need to stop teaching it, and brainwashingMon, 10 Aug 2009 05:45:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-03.htmlIn this issue: The Great Reflation Experiment The Debt Super Cycle Some Background on US Inflation Implications for Investors A Beach, New York, and Maine The question we have been focused on for some time now is whether we end up with inflation, or deflation, and what that endgame looks like. It is one of the most important questions an investor must ask today, and getting the answer right is critical. This week, we have a guest writer who takes on the topic of the great experiment the Fed isMon, 03 Aug 2009 06:01:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-08-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-07-27.htmlIn this issue: The Return of Muddle Through* Can China Lead the Global Recovery? The Statistical Recovery The Last Bear Standing New York, Maine and Tulsa A lot of bullish commentators are talking about a recovery being in the works, and they may very well be right. But it is not going to look like any recovery worthy of the name. This week we look at what I will call The Statistical Recovery. But first we take a look at what China is doing, as we continue our look at the rest of the world andMon, 27 Jul 2009 05:35:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-07-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-07-20.htmlIn this issue: Europe on the Brink And Then There Was Leverage Too Big To Save Those Wild and Crazy Swiss A Positive Third Quarter? New York and Maine We have avoided Armageddon, at least for now. The cost to the US taxpayer has been a few trillion. Some in the media are loudly announcing the end of the recession. But we are not out of the woods yet. There are a few more bumps in the road. Actually, some of them are quite steep hills. As big as the subprime problem? Maybe. When asked a fewMon, 20 Jul 2009 05:35:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-07-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-07-13.htmlIn this issue: The End of the Recession? The New Normal Is Still In Our Future  The Hidden Problem Within Unemployment Data Was Income Really Up? Tulsa, London, and The Baltics There is no doubt that the US is in financial trouble. Those talking of a strong recovery are just not dealing with reality. But the US is in better shape than a lot of countries. This week, we begin by looking at Japan. I have written for years about how large their debt-to-GDP ratio is, yet they keep on issuingMon, 13 Jul 2009 05:37:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-07-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-06-29.htmlIn this issue: The End of the Recession? The New Normal Is Still In Our Future The Hidden Problem Within Unemployment Data Was Income Really Up? Tulsa, London, and The Baltics Last week we began a series on data abuse, about how various commentators twist and torture data to make it say what they want, or fail to look at the details underneath the headlines. Predictably, there is a lot of fodder this week as we forge ahead into this ripe territory. The headlines screamed that US income dataMon, 29 Jun 2009 05:53:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-06-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-06-22.htmlIn this issue: This Time It's Different* Peter Bernstein, R.I.P. Welcome to the New Normal The Three Amigos Credit Spreads - Bullish or Bearish? ISM - Is Less Bad That Good? Contain Your Enthusiasm London, The Baltics, and Rome I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are "This Time It's Different." If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that itMon, 22 Jun 2009 06:53:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-06-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-06-08.htmlIn this issue: The New, New Normal A Different Perspective on Health Care Staying Rich in the New Normal Eastern Europe, Maine and Tulsa We are coming to a critical inflection point, perhaps the most critical point that we have had in 70 years for the US and to a great extent the global economy. The choices we make (or that Congress and the Fed make for us) will affect not just our investment portfolios but business and our jobs for a very long time. Last week I talked about the three paths weMon, 08 Jun 2009 05:31:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-06-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-06-01.htmlIn this issue: This Way Be Dragons A Housing Update More Prime Foreclosures In Our Future Are We Paying Too Much for Health Care? Naples, London, and Home for June In fantasy novels the intrepid heroes come across a sign saying "This Way Be Dragons." Of course, they venture on, facing calamity and death, but such is the nature of fantasy novels. We live in a very real world, and if we don't turn around there will be some very nasty dragons in our future. This week we look at three possibleMon, 01 Jun 2009 06:00:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-06-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-05-25.htmlIn this issue: A Trillion Dollars as Far as the Eye Can See The Global Recession Gets Worse Where Will the Money Come From? The Paradox of Deficits Naples, London, and Eastern Europe A Trillion Dollars as Far as the Eye Can See As of this week, total US debt is $11.3 trillion and rising rapidly. The Obama Administration projects that to rise another $1.85 trillion in 2009 (13% of GDP) and yet another $1.4 trillion in 2010. The Congressional Budget Office projects almost $10 trillion inMon, 25 May 2009 05:50:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-05-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-05-18.htmlIn this issue: Can I Have Some More of that Data, Please? The Fault, Dear Brutus, is Not in Our Stars Faith-Based Economics Is Unemployment a Lagging or a Leading Indicator? An Unsustainable Trend in Debt Some Thoughts on the Health Care Problem Can I Have Some More of that Data, Please? One of my regular reads is the blog The Big Picture. They featured a short piece by Michael Panzner this week. He put together some rather interesting data and then asked a question, which gives me anMon, 18 May 2009 05:52:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-05-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-05-11.htmlIn this issue: A Few Thoughts on Recessions Are the Green Shoots Really Dandelion Weeds? Is That a Leaky Bucket? Frugality Is Back in Vogue Where Will the Jobs Come From? Cleveland, New York, and Mother's Day Go to Google. Type in "green shoots." In about a 10th of a second you will find 28,900,000 references. Scrolling through a few pages, you find a lot of references to the beginning of the end of the recession. Today we look at some data to see if we can indeed see the end. Most readersMon, 11 May 2009 06:22:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-05-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-05-04.htmlIn this issue: Sell in May and Go Away? The End of the Recession? Is the US Consumer Back? A Dangerous End Game A Few Thoughts on Swine Flu The old adage that one should "sell in May and walk away" has been around for years. I mentioned that bromide about this time last year, urging readers to head for the sidelines if they had not already done so. I was also suggesting a strategic retreat in August of 2006 (after which the markets went up 20% before plummeting). In this week's letter we lookMon, 04 May 2009 05:45:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-05-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-04-27.htmlIn this issue: MV=PQ Financial Innovation: The Round Trip 2010-11: Back to the Future Recession The Fed at the Crossroads How Did We Get It So Wrong? The Trend Is Not Your Friend When It Ends Orlando, Naples, Cleveland, and Grandkids MV=PQ Okay, when you become a central banker, you are taken into a back room and they do a DNA change on you. You are henceforth and forever genetically incapable of allowing deflation on your watch. It becomes the first and foremost thought on your mind:Mon, 27 Apr 2009 05:55:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-04-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-04-20.htmlIn this issue: Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis Dressing Like an Economist The Trend Is Your Friend Until the End of the Trend What Is Money? MV=PQ Newport Beach, Orlando, and Home Two weeks ago I presented my thoughts on the current economic situation at my 6th Annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla (co-hosted with Altegris Investments). The speech was well-received, at least to judge from the comment forms. So this week and next, we are going to revisit that talk (with a fewMon, 20 Apr 2009 06:03:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-04-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-04-13.htmlIn this issue: I s That Recovery We See? Those Wild and Crazy Analysts The Shadow Inventory of Homes Commercial Real Estate Starts a Long, Slow Slide P/E Ratios Go Negative! The Effect of Earnings Surprises Corporate Earnings and Recovery in Recessions The Implosion in Social Security Copenhagen, London, Newport Beach, etc. The market, we keep hearing and reading, is telling us that there is recovery around the corner. And pundits point to data that seems to suggest the worst is behind us. TheMon, 13 Apr 2009 05:37:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-04-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-04-06.htmlIn this issue: What About the Original Dow 30 Stocks? Adding and Subtracting Value The Original Dow 30 Components A Few Thoughts from Richard Russell How to Succeed at Writing Conversations on Banks Copenhagen, London and Orange County, etc. Tonight (Saturday) some 450 people will come together in San Diego to honor Richard Russell, who has been writing the Dow Theory Letter for over 50 years. In that spirit, in today's letter we are going to look deep inside the Dow, back to its very roots.Mon, 06 Apr 2009 06:23:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-04-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-30.htmlIn this issue: Why Bother With Bonds? So Then, Bonds for the Long Run? P/E Ratios at 200? Really? Mark-to-Market Slip Slides Away Housing Sales Improve? Not Hardly La Jolla, Copenhagen, London, etc . Investors, we are told, demand a risk premium for investing in stocks rather than bonds. Without that extra return, why invest in risky stocks if you can get guaranteed returns in bonds? This week we look at a brilliantly done paper examining whether or not investors have gotten better returnsMon, 30 Mar 2009 06:14:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-23.htmlIn this issue: Solving the Housing Crisis Housing Could Drop Another 20% in Pricing Buy A Home, Get a Green Card A Real Stimulus Package Las Vegas, La Jolla, and the OC This last Tuesday the Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by my friend Gary Shilling and Richard LeFrak. They offer a simple solution for the housing crisis: give foreigners who will come to the US and buy a home resident status (green cards). This is a very important proposal and one that deserves national attention andMon, 23 Mar 2009 05:52:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-16.htmlIn this issue: Where Have My Earnings Gone? The Land of the Setting Sun The Swiss Start Their Engines My One True Nightmare New York, Vegas, and Happy Birthday, Tiffani This week we look at the Land of the Rising Sun. Japan is going through major upheavals, and they will have consequences all over the world. And what are those wild and crazy Swiss central bankers up to? It's time for another round of competitive devaluation. And of course I have to look at the recent Barron's cover story,Mon, 16 Mar 2009 05:58:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-09.htmlIn this issue: Unintended Consequences The I-Factor Rating Agencies Gone Wild Knights to the Rescue Rules have consequences. And sometimes they have unintended consequences. If I told you that the US government was going to give multiple tens of billions of taxpayer dollars to hedge funds and private investors, you would justifiably not be happy. I think the word angry would come to mind. But that is exactly what is happening, as a result of rules that were written for a time and placeMon, 09 Mar 2009 06:08:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-02.htmlIn this issue: More About the Long Run Stocks for the REALLY Long Run If You Don't Like the Numbers, Then Change Them Buy and Hope A Few Thoughts on Taxes and Budgets Nouriel Roubini, Yahoo Tech Ticker, and Me New York, Las Vegas, and La Jolla This week Professor Jeremy Siegel (author of Stocks for the Long Run) had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal showing that stocks are now cheap. I was on Tech Ticker, and Henry Blodgett challenged me about my e-letter last week, where I talked about howMon, 02 Mar 2009 06:05:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-03-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-02-23.htmlIn this issue: While Rome Burns The Risk in Europe The Euro Back to Parity? Really? Back to the Basics Living in Paradise The 20-Year Horizon If I Had a Hammer New York, Las Vegas, and La Jolla When I sit down each week to write, I essentially do what I did nine years ago when I started writing this letter. I write to you, as an individual. I don't think of a large group of people, just a simple letter to a friend. It is only half a joke that this letter is written to my one million closestMon, 23 Feb 2009 05:56:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-02-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-02-16.htmlIn this issue: Time for a Reality Check World Trade Is Falling Off a Cliff European Bank Losses Dwarf Those in the US Geithner: "You Can't Handle the Truth" Earnings Will Get Even Worse Orlando, Colorado Springs, New York, and Las Vegas It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address myMon, 16 Feb 2009 05:46:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-02-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-02-09.htmlIn this issue: Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis The Right Direction, At Least The Jobs Will Come Can We Have a Little Inflation, Please? Those Wild and Crazy Analysts La Jolla, Conversations, and Richard Russell When confronted about an apparent change of his opinions, John Maynard Keynes is reported to have said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" The earnings season for the 4th quarter is almost 80% complete, and the facts are dismal. It is worse than theMon, 09 Feb 2009 05:55:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-02-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-02-02.htmlIn this issue: Trading With the Big Boys FusionIQ GM, AIG, and Alcoa -- Are They Still in Your Portfolio? La Jolla, New York, and Las Vegas This week we are going to do something a little different. I am in Bermuda taking a little weekend R&R after a speech, as well as working on my book. There is not the time for the usual letter this week, but I have asked Barry Ritholtz to write about his new trading program, FusionIQ, for reasons I will talk about below. But first, and quickly, if youMon, 02 Feb 2009 06:04:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/John@FrontLineThoughts.com (Millennium Wave Investments)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/thoughts-from-the-frontline/2009-02-02.html