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FX Daily Update

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To Be a Bull or Not to Be a Bull?

Fri, Aug 14 2009, 09:49 GMT
by Lena Manousarides

SpikeCharts

The week has come to an end, with dollar showing signs of weakness once again against its major counterparts and especially the euro, after better than expected news out of Germany and France yesterday, suggested that the worse may indeed be over for the Euro area and recovery may very well be a reality. The GDP numbers in Euro zone were surprisingly strong and traders honored the European currency by buying it gains the buck, taking the EUR/USD back up towards 1.43.

The EUR/USD closed the day on the upside trend, and the daily charts suggest that further move up may be seen tomorrow towards 1.44. As long as the pair holds 1.4230 ahead of 1.4180, there is good reasons to think that pair is heading north in the coming hours, as traders felt some kind of relief after the better news we saw from Germany. Next level to watch for now is 1.4330 and a clear break may open the way to 1.44.

The economic calendar today has a few releases out of the US, with CPI being the one that traders will monitor in order to see how the inflation is performing with the current rates close to zero and also consumer confidence which should give us a better number, judging from the recent euphoria that we saw due to better economic numbers. The question is how traders will take the better news and what will mean for the dollar. The answer lies at how the stocks and commodities will perform and if indeed we see New York stocks rise, together with gold and oil, then dollar may weaken further. Although recently we saw dollar gaining after better US economic news, however it is a matter of how long this will last and if another negative cycle of news hit the markets, how it will affect trader’s sentiment.

Stocks are poised to close the week on a positive note today, after Asian markets advanced and the same positive note occurs in Europe. It will be interesting to see New York open and as long as dollar weakening, oil and gold may continue to climb against the buck. The oil is trading above $70 once again; however the rally does not look strong for now. Next important level for the oil is $ 72 and if that level breaks then $73.50 comes back into focus. The fact that both the oil and the euro keep meeting resistance in important year highs of 1.45 and $74 respectively, shows that investors are not ready for further upside just yet, as they await for further evidence regarding state of recession.

Let’s see how the day will progress and if the euro and the pound reach new weekly highs above 1.43 and 1.66 respectively in the coming days…

Published on  Fri, Aug 14 2009, 09:50 GMT