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The Energy Report

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The Luck Of the Cartel

Tue, Mar 17 2009, 15:07 GMT
by Phil Flynn

Alaron

OPEC is full of the blarney, there is no doubt but could St Patrick be smiling down on those producers in the OPEC cartel? Perhaps they found a three leaf clover or perhaps Leprechauns whispered in their ear but it seems that OPEC is getting the message that cutting supply and raising prices in a slowing global economy makes things worse not better.

OPEC was rewarded for removing the log from their eye and the oil market as it joined into the rest of the markets renewed economic optimism. Of course the Irish has a saying that if you really want to know what God thinks of money , just look at who he gives it to.

Oil rebounded as traders looked to the future and some positioning and cover ahead of today’s option expiration. Despite the gyrations and big time swings, oil is still just locked in a range. Is the market forecasting better things ahead or is it just appeasing the optimism of the moment. Demand is still the key. Yet we still have to see the demand for oil and natural gas increase before we get too excited about a change in trend.

We may see part of that trend develop in tonight’s API report and tomorrows EIA energy supply report. Mark Shenk of Bloomberg News says that U.S. oil supplies probably climbed last week because of weak demand at refineries that have yet to finish seasonal maintenance. The Bloomberg survey shows that US crude oil stockpiles probably rose 1.0 million barrels in the week ended March 13 from 351.3 million the week before, according to the median of 11 estimates by analysts before an Energy Department report this week. Eight of those surveyed said supplies increased and three forecast a decline. Refineries probably operated at 82.7 percent of capacity, unchanged from the week before, according to the median of responses in the survey. U.S. companies often shut units for maintenance in January and February as attention shifts away from heating oil and before gasoline use rises in the summer. Gasoline stockpiles probably dropped 1.5 million barrels from 212.5 million the prior week, according to the survey. Eight analysts forecast a decline and three said there was an increase. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably rose 1 million barrels from 145.4 million. Six of the respondents forecast an increase, four said there was a decline and one forecast no change.

Oil demand in the US is weak and we need to see that change. Still you have to respect the way this market can look ahead. If oil closes above $50 a barrel we may need to start getting a bit bullish. Expect the unexpected as this options expiration for oil could cause a big pop and a late day drop! Day traders get ready!

We're short April crude from apprx 4570 - stop 5100.

Sell April heating oil at 12700 - stop 13300.

Sell April RBOB at 13500 - stop 14300.

We're short April natural gas from apprx 437 - lower stop to 411!

Published on  Tue, Mar 17 2009, 15:08 GMT