• Home ::
• Fundamental ::
• Analysis Reports ::
• The Energy Report

• Send
• Print
• Add To
• Rss

The Energy Report

c4c2021a-fce1-40f7-83bf-ae30590d14c5

0

0

Go ahead OPEC Make My Day!

Fri, Oct 10 2008, 12:59 GMT
by Phil Flynn

Alaron

Go ahead, make my day. OPEC calls an emergency OPEC meeting for November 18th hinting that they may cut production and the oil market laughed in their face. Why would the markets take OPEC seriously when the economic dominoes are crashing down around the globe.

Some OPEC members are living in a dream world where they think that a production cut at this point might actually matter. The global credit crisis and the global market meltdown will have little sympathy for many OPEC countries that squandered their years of record profits and became more dependent on constantly rising oil profits. Once again in the quest for the political and economic power that comes from oil, comes another seismic shift away from the oil producing countries again back to the consumers.

First of all assuming that the hawkish members of the cartel can get the Saudis to agree to cut production is highly likely due to the price spike that would surely be soon to follow and thereby cause more economic pain. Many major purchases of oil usually rely on some type of bank credit anyway and it will be harder to get that credit even if you want to buy the oil. Higher prices and the lack of available credit will slow demand even more and OPEC oil producers desperate for cash will cheat on production in a desperate attempt to hang onto declining world market share. In fact this credit crisis will become so bad for oil demand that even if you have nightmares because you believe in the peak oil theory, demand declines should help you sleep well for a few mores decades or so.

Of course this will be a bitter pill for the oil producers to take that had become intoxicated with power as the result of high oil prices. Guys like Vladimir Putin in Russia and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Ahmadinejad in Iran that all rode into power surrounding the circumstances of a global economic growth oil price fed boom will be exposed for the real nothings that they are. The oil pendulum has started to swing the other way and will knock these guys on their backside and OPEC members will turn on each other and start eating their own in a desperate fight for economic survival. When you’re whole economy and the building blocks of your political power is tied to high oil prices you will rise and fall with the price.

OPEC’s best move at this point would be to pump as much oil as they can to try to save the economy from a meltdown so they could then have a chance to sell oil at a higher price in the future. Of course desperate men do desperate things and these are desperate times.

We're short November crude from apprx 10800 - lower stop to 9250!!!!

Sell November heating oil at 24500 - stop 25000.

We're short November RBOB from apprx 26500 - stop to 21000!!!

We're long November natural gas from apprx 670 - stop 640.

Have a GREAT day and weekend!

Published on  Fri, Oct 10 2008, 13:03 GMT