http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-16.htmlEach year at this time, thoughts of strategic planning become the focus as we all look into next year.1 For North Carolina, such planning is of paramount focus given the structural economic challenges facing our state. There are no quick fixes. First, on the jobs front, there is a widening mismatch between the labor force we need and the skills of many of our current workers. This gap was noted before but in the past two years our manufacturing base has evolved even more toward higherMon, 16 Nov 2009 10:27:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-11.htmlThe Commercial Real Estate Centipede Loses Another Shoe Hardly a day goes by without some mention that another shoe is about to drop on the economy as the rising tide of defaults and foreclosures of commercial properties overwhelms the financial system. Such talk is understandable given the circumstances and the nearness of the collapse of the residential market. There is still plenty of bad news stoking fears, both real and imagined. Property values are declining. Credit is hard to obtain.Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:32:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-05.v03.htmlLong-term Repercussions of Swelling Government Indebtedness “You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.” – Abraham Lincoln Fiscal year 2009 for the United States government drew to a close on Sept. 30, when the closing bell sounded to the sour tune of a $1.417 trillion deficit (Figure 1). Some perspective: 1.4 trillion is equal to 13 times the number of people who have ever lived, or $4,500 for each and every person living in the United States. The stock of debt heldThu, 05 Nov 2009 18:36:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-05.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-05.v02.htmlInflation Worries Appear Overblown, for Now The Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing program and efforts put in place by the Fed and Treasury to combat the financial crisis have raised fears that inflation will soon accelerate. While some fears are warranted, the near-term threat from inflation is likely overstated. Considerable excess capacity exists today and very few firms have any significant pricing power. Discounting remains rampant, rents are falling and wages and salaries areThu, 05 Nov 2009 13:24:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-05.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-05.htmlInflation or Disappointing Growth Disappointing subpar growth remains our outlook for the economy. This subpar growth will be a challenge to both private and public decision-makers. A realistic, not Pollyannaish, view of the economy begins with a model of the economy as it is—not as we might wish it to be. In this respect, we see an economy characterized by an excess supply of goods, an excess supply of labor and an excess supply of credit. Given this model, we will look at the outlines ofThu, 05 Nov 2009 10:43:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-04.htmlExecutive Summary Most observers look for a sluggish U.S. economic recovery as American consumers delever after years of building up debt. However, British consumers are even more geared than their American counterparts. Isn’t the outlook for consumer spending in the United Kingdom even bleaker than it is on the other side of the Atlantic? Although we do not expect a vigorous upturn in personal consumption expenditures in the United Kingdom, the outlook for British consumer spending may not beWed, 04 Nov 2009 10:27:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-10-20.htmlExecutive Summary  Gold prices have surged in recent months, which some observers claim is a clear warning that inflation will soon turn sharply higher as it did in the late 1970s. However, other forward-looking market-based inflation indicators do not support this hypothesis. Inflation indicators such as bond yields, consumer expectations and TIPS spreads have been running at fairly depressed levels, which suggest inflation will likely remain benign.1 If the spike in gold prices is not aTue, 20 Oct 2009 18:49:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-10-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-10-16.html“Our businesses will need to develop new markets as the traditional advantage of relatively open access to U.S. markets becomes less valuable.” -Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of Canada, Sept. 28, 2009 Executive Summary Close geographic proximity and a common culture have encouraged extensive trade and investment ties between Canada and the United States in the post-World War II era. About 10 years ago, the United States was the destination for nearly 90 percent of Canada’s exports andFri, 16 Oct 2009 08:52:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-10-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-10-06.v02.htmlI wish to thank Professor Kaufman for the opportunity to speak at this conference and with the chance to catch-up with some long-time friends. In line with this conferences theme, I will highlight some of the ways that the rules have changed but, even more so and with great disappointment, how much the underlying economic and political forces have not changed. First, in contrast to the views expressed by a previous speaker I see no reason why stress tests and risk simulations cannot accountTue, 06 Oct 2009 10:40:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-10-06.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-10-06.htmlGeorgia Battles Back from the Great Recession Georgia’s economy has struggled mightily with the recession and continues to deal with a rising tide of layoffs, foreclosures and bank failures. Weakness is evident throughout the state with the bulk of the problems related to the housing collapse, cutbacks in consumer spending and a slowdown in international trade. Nonfarm employment has tumbled 7.3 percent since peaking in September 2007, and the unemployment rate has surged and more than doubledTue, 06 Oct 2009 10:11:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-09-25.htmlExecutive Summary The dollar has followed a downward trend over the past six months, weakening against the currencies of other major economies and developing countries alike. Some observers claim that the dollar’s depreciation reflects unease among foreigners about the U.S. fiscal outlook. However, there is very little evidence to support this hypothesis. Purchases of long-term U.S. Treasury securities by private foreign investors and foreign central banks have remained strong during theFri, 25 Sep 2009 09:04:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-09-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-09-04.htmlThe Next Shoe to Drop? September marks the one-year anniversary of the intensification of the financial crisis. The first round of problems mostly resulted from the bursting of the housing bubble, which sent foreclosures soaring and home prices tumbling. One constantly recurring fear is that another round of losses will result from the collapse of commercial real estate. Vacancy rates have increased, rents have declined and delinquency rates have risen. Moreover, changes in accounting rulesFri, 04 Sep 2009 08:52:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-09-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-09-01.v02.htmlExecutive Summary The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) swept to power in parliamentary elections this weekend, unseating the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan for almost the entire post-World War II era. The DPJ’s policy platform tends to favor consumers over business interests, and the Japanese economy could get a bit of a boost in the short run as handouts to consumers rise. However, the longer-run effect on the economy is more open to question. Indeed, long-termTue, 01 Sep 2009 09:41:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-09-01.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-09-01.html"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." Mark Twain Recovery signals are in the air, corroborating our statistical model estimates, yet also intimating that the character of this recovery already is different than prior recoveries. Consumer spending is up, reflecting income growth, however such growth does not primarily reflect earned income but rather federal transfer payments. Meanwhile, as many dear readers suspect, production and employment advances lag, as they have done inTue, 01 Sep 2009 09:35:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-09-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-08-26.htmlExecutive Summary Many analysts expect that U.S. real GDP growth will be lackluster over the next few years as consumers’ desire to delever leads to sluggish growth in consumer spending. In contrast, the household debt-to-GDP ratio in the overall Euro-zone does not appear to be overly elevated at present. However, there is a wide range of ratios for individual countries within the Euro area, and three countries have American-like ratios of household indebtedness. In addition, Greece hasWed, 26 Aug 2009 09:24:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-08-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-08-19.htmlExecutive Summary As recently as the first half of 2008, businesses were still spending and making a positive contribution to real GDP. But with the onset of the credit crisis orders weakened significantly in the middle of last year and the declines accelerated in the wake of the credit crisis, resulting in four consecutive quarters of contraction in business fixed investment (Figure 1). Businesses across the country slashed investment spending in an effort to survive the recession. ManyWed, 19 Aug 2009 08:42:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-08-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-08-14.htmlJobs: Cyclical Distress and Demographics Drive Demand The labor market today is in a state of severe distress. Through this cycle the United States has witnessed the loss of 6.5 million jobs, while the national unemployment rate has skyrocketed to nearly 10 percent (Figure 1). Some communities are suffering fates far worse, now facing unemployment rates of more than 20 percent. For the nation as a whole, this is the worst downturn in the labor market in more than 50 years, and unfortunatelyFri, 14 Aug 2009 14:07:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-08-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-07-22.html“You cannot step twice into the same river…” Heraclitus, as quoted by Plato in Cratylus In the Blue Chip Survey published just after the first Obama administration stimulus passed, the consensus estimate for the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of this year was 9.2 percent.1 Moreover, the top 10 most pessimistic forecasts had unemployment hitting nine percent as soon as the second quarter. Congratulations to them. Our March forecast had unemployment hitting 9.6 percent during the secondWed, 22 Jul 2009 09:08:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-07-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-07-17.htmlExpansionary Policies Have Helped to Boost Growth Recently released data showed that the year-over-year growth rate of Chinese real GDP rose from 6.1 percent in the first quarter of this year to 7.9 percent in the second quarter (Figure 1). Monthly data certainly suggested that economic growth in China was picking up steam in the second quarter, so the confirmation that overall GDP accelerated in the recently completed quarter was a pleasant, albeit not totally unexpected, outturn. Why is theFri, 17 Jul 2009 08:49:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-07-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-07-08.html“An overconfident government throws itself into a dysfunctional culture it doesn’t really understand. The result is quagmire. The costs escalate. There is no exit strategy.” 1 In the rush to solve the current economic problems policymakers base their projections of success on high-level multipliers and big-picture estimates. Often missed, however, are the on-the-ground microeconomic implications of policy proposals, a failure which has led to disappointment in the past. What canWed, 08 Jul 2009 14:16:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-07-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-07-01.htmlEarly Sectoral Weakness Over the past few years the United States has witnessed incredible economic and financial fallout from declining home values and the vast oversupply of homes. Weakness in the housing sector has had serious implications for other parts of the economy. The repercussions from falling home prices showed up almost immediately in the mortgage market, and it did not take long for the knock-on effects to take down the global financial markets. While the financial marketsWed, 01 Jul 2009 13:21:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-07-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-30.htmlCredit Cycle: Breakdown, Adjustment and Rebuilding in the Financial Sector “Growth takes place whenever a challenge evokes a successful response that, in turn, evokes a further and different challenge…a response that had been both an effective answer to the challenge that had called it forth and at the same time a fruitful mother of a new challenge requiring a different response.”1 Arnold J. Toynbee Apologists for monetary policy actions often resort to the straw man of posing a false choiceTue, 30 Jun 2009 12:53:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-19.v02.htmlWhen Employment Changes Faster than our Memories Without U.S manufacturing, the Allies may not have won the two World Wars, and the country may not have launched from its agrarian roots into the largest economic powerhouse in the world. We would not be where we are today were it not for American manufacturing, particularly in the twentieth century. But the world has changed, and despite our romantic notions, manufacturing is no longer the keystone of the American economy, nor is it theFri, 19 Jun 2009 10:53:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-19.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-19.htmlOne of the key features of the current financial crisis has been a substantial breakdown in the historical relationship between the performance of key economic measures and delinquency rates on residential mortgages and many types of consumer loans. The unemployment rate, for example, has long been believed to be highly correlated with consumer loan delinquency rates. Although this statement is widely expected to be true, it does not seem to have held true in the current business cycle, whichFri, 19 Jun 2009 08:02:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-12.htmlHousing Is Nearing a Bottom but Not a Recovery The U.S. economy appears set to begin a recovery before the housing market does. Our latest forecast has real GDP moving back into positive territory during the third quarter, and we now expect the recession to end at some point this summer. Home sales and new home construction should bottom out at around the same time as the overall economy. A recovery in home sales and new home construction still appears to be a long way off, however, as theFri, 12 Jun 2009 08:17:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-11.htmlThe combination of massive job losses, slower income growth and a colossal loss of wealth has come together to usher in a new era of consumer thrift. Consumer spending, which began moderating when housing prices started falling rapidly in 2007, lost further momentum in 2008 and then collapsed following the onset of the financial crisis late that year. Real personal consumption expenditures plunged at a 3.8 percent annual rate during the third quarter and tumbled at a 4.3 percent pace in theThu, 11 Jun 2009 09:00:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-05.htmlWhat Do Previous Recessions Tell Us About theCurrent Recession and the Path to Recovery? One of the most dangerous phrases one can mutter in the current economic environment is that “this time the business cycle is different.” In one sense this is always true, as no two business cycles are truly alike. However, a closer look at past recessions shows the severity of the recession and the shape of the recovery were largely influenced by the external shock or policy change that preceded theFri, 05 Jun 2009 06:16:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-06-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-19.htmlExecutive Summary The global economy fell off a cliff late last year as the credit crunch brought economic activity to a standstill, and most major economies appear to have contracted at a sharp rate in the first quarter as well. Although recent data suggest that the bottom has probably not been reached yet, rates of decline may be starting to slow. Eventually, however, the global economy will begin to recover. Will major economies rise from the ashes at the same time and pace, or will certainTue, 19 May 2009 13:36:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-15.v02.htmlAcross a broad array of confidence indicators, from consumers to small businesses to the heads of the largest companies in the country, confidence is at low tide. While some indices have seen marginal improvement in recent months, it is hardly time to celebrate the newfound confidence that might lead to a forecast of above trend economic growth. The level of most indicators remains at or near multi-decade or even all-time lows as the economic downturn has pummeled the feelings of bothFri, 15 May 2009 09:34:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-15.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-15.htmlInventories have an important role in defining the business cycle and exert significant influence on perceptions of prosperity as measured by the national income accounts. As Chairman Bernanke noted in his recent testimony before Congress, inventories will be an important part of the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy.1 In the first quarter inventories fell by $103.7B, which subtracted 2.79 percentage points from real gross domestic product (GDP), almost half of the overall decline (FigureFri, 15 May 2009 09:26:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-12.htmlReal nonresidential construction tumbled at a record 44 percent annual rate during the first quarter, subtracting over two percentage points from real GDP. A large portion of the drop was due to a pullback in oil & gas drilling and exploration. Building activity is also winding down, particularly in office and commercial construction which includes multi-tenant retail space. The economic downturn and tight credit conditions should continue to put downward pressure on nonresidentialTue, 12 May 2009 15:58:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-05.v02.html"These stages are the fundamental principles of the universal process. Each is again, within itself, a process of its own formulation." Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel Financial Green Shoots Public policy seeks to resolve certain economic conflicts but such a resolution sets up another set of issues. In the post-WWII period this has been made most obvious by the use of Keynesian stimulus in the 1960s and 1970s which led to stagflation. The latest installation of this story is the mid-1990sTue, 05 May 2009 10:33:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-05.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-01.htmlEarlier this week I was asked if I believed in the old adage that what is good for the motor vehicle industry is good for America. If so, what does that say about our nation’s economic prospects? The question itself is a spin on former GM’s president Charles Erwin Wilson’s statement back in the early 1950s at his confirmation hearing to be President Eisenhower’s Secretary of Defense. Wilson was asked if, as Defense Secretary, he could remain independent if he had to make a decision that wouldFri, 01 May 2009 15:02:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-05-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-28.htmlExecutive Summary The swine flu epidemic has become front page news this week. Mexico is the epicenter of the outbreak and thousands of cases have been reported in that country. However, scores of cases have been confirmed in the United States, and countries as far afield as Israel and New Zealand have hospitalized people with symptoms that resemble swine flu. Not only have the Mexican stock market and currency been hammered over the past few days, but financial markets in most other countriesTue, 28 Apr 2009 16:55:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-23.htmlExecutive Summary The global economy fell off a cliff late last year as the credit crunch brought economic activity to a standstill, and most major economies appear to have contracted at a sharp rate in the first quarter as well. Although recent data suggest that the bottom has probably not been reached yet, rates of decline may be starting to slow. Eventually, however, the global economy will begin to recover. Will major economies rise from the ashes at the same time and pace, or will certainThu, 23 Apr 2009 12:34:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-21.htmlIf something cannot go on forever, it will stop. Such simple truths can often be elusive. Unsustainable systems by definition cannot persist, a notion which will hopefully impart patience unto those who wish to overhaul entire systems in one drastic action.2 Healthcare is but one example of a system subject to overwhelming criticism. In fact, more than 80 percent of U.S. adults believe the health system needs either “fundamental changes” or “a complete rebuild.”3 Because each person isTue, 21 Apr 2009 09:43:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-16.htmlOften the biggest misses in bank strategy have little to do with the day-to-day management of the bank. Instead, these miscues often reflect the difference between actual and expected economic outcomes which drive the underlying success of our customers. Five aspects of the economy provide the strategic input to any tactical banking outlook. We will review each of these factors in turn with the goal of highlighting useful benchmarks to track actual and expected economic performance. These fiveThu, 16 Apr 2009 14:45:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-09.htmlState of the Global Economy: The Intersection of Economy and Credit I. “What is the current state of the global economy?” Global economic growth averaged nearly five percent per annum from 2004 to 2007, the strongest four-year period of growth in decades (Figure 1). However, real GDP growth rates slowed in most countries in the first half of 2008, and it appears that many major economies have now slipped into recession due in part to the effects of the global credit crunch. IndustrialThu, 09 Apr 2009 12:29:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-08.v02.htmlExecutive Summary The dollar appreciated versus most currencies in the second half of last year as the sharp decline in the price of oil caused the current account deficit to narrow significantly. Moreover, the greenback was helped by net sales of foreign assets by U.S. investors and by very strong purchases of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign central banks and investors. The dollar’s fate going forward will be determined by the interplay of the current account deficit and net capitalWed, 08 Apr 2009 10:17:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-08.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-08.htmlClosing in on a Bottom in 2009 Signs are beginning to emerge that suggest sales of new and existing homes are moving toward a bottom. Actual sales figures took a positive turn in February and mortgage applications for the purchase of a home have increased in recent weeks as mortgage rates have tumbled. We expect sales to bottom this summer and look for some modest improvement during the second half of the year. Such a turn of events would be consistent with past recessions, which saw homeWed, 08 Apr 2009 07:28:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2009-04-08.html