http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-02-01.htmlTwo Steps Forward, One Step Backward There has been a great deal of excitement surrounding the housing outlook for 2012. Last year ended on a fairly solid note, with sales appearing to improve, inventories apparently declining and builder optimism posting four increases in a row. The latest data, however, are a little less heartening. New home sales for December showed sales weakening somewhat, and the latest reading for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a larger-than-expectedWed, 01 Feb 2012 08:36:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-02-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-31.htmlThe recent drop in the unemployment rate to 8.5 percent in December came as a pleasant and somewhat unexpected surprise. The drop in the jobless rate, which fell 0.9 percentage points over the past year, seems at odds with most other broad measures of economic activity. Indeed, real GDP grew by only 1.6 percent over the same period. The drop in the unemployment rate relative to the economy’s overall growth appears to mark a sharp break from recent history. With last week’s release ofTue, 31 Jan 2012 14:05:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-20.htmlThe recent string of positive reports on the housing market has raised hopes that 2012 might finally be the year in which the housing recovery truly begins. Unfortunately, we believe these hopes are a bit premature. A true national recovery in home sales and new home construction will not begin until a significant portion of the excess supply of housing is cleared from the market. As such, the key to forecasting when a self-sustaining housing recovery will begin is to understand how much longerFri, 20 Jan 2012 09:13:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-16.htmlThe European sovereign debt crisis has been festering for nearly three years, and some observers wonder whether the credit default swaps (CDS) that have been written on the government bonds of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain represent another source of risk for the world’s major financial institutions. In our view, observers should not focus on CDS in isolation. Rather, their attention should be riveted to the solvency of those European governments. After all, a “credit event,” whichMon, 16 Jan 2012 09:04:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-13.v03.htmlRecent experiences in fiscal policy in Europe and the United States have highlighted the debate over the effect of fiscal policy on aggregate demand in a traditional model of the macroeconomy. The predominant view, at least prior to recent experiences, was that increased federal spending and/or lower taxes would tend to raise gross domestic product (GDP) in the economy. Yet, this view has fallen on hard times as fiscal stimulus in the United States has produced very poor results compared toFri, 13 Jan 2012 17:12:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-13.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-13.v02.htmlAmid the whirlwind of news regarding the sovereign debt crisis and the fate of the euro emanating out of Western European countries over the past several months, trouble has been brewing on the other side of the continent. While Greece and Italy were replacing their political leaders and rushing to push through austerity measures to reduce their debt and calm financial markets, currencies in Poland, Turkey and Russia have nosedived as risk aversion has intensified. This has led to mountingFri, 13 Jan 2012 15:11:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-13.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-13.htmlGlobal Expansion Should Continue, but Risks Abound Global growth slowed over the course of 2011, and it appears that the global economy entered the new year on a weak note. Real GDP growth in the United States likely strengthened in the fourth quarter, but most other major economies appear to have downshifted in the last three months of the year. The Eurozone appears to have entered a mild recession again due to fiscal tightening in some countries and to the erosion in confidence across theFri, 13 Jan 2012 08:53:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-11.htmlBank credit, through C&I loans and securities, is following a typical cycle contrary to some commentary. What is unusual is the depth of the correction in real estate lending—a product of perceived home values. Business Lending and Inventories Inventory finance is a staple of short-term bank lending and the link to inventory building is clearly evident in the top graph. As firms build inventories during periods such as 1995, 2002-2004 and now 2010-2011, these firms seek bank financing and,Wed, 11 Jan 2012 20:06:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2012-01-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-30.v02.htmlExecutive Summary If 2011 was a wild year for energy and commodity prices, our expectation is that 2012 will be no different, as the news coming from Europe and other parts of the world should remain unsettling. One of the few exceptions to this environment will likely be that U.S. economic conditions will continue to improve and this should temper some of the volatility brought on by other economies around the world. Recall that in early 2011 the world energy markets were shocked by theFri, 30 Dec 2011 21:55:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-30.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-30.htmlBetter News Is Raising Hopes for the New Year Most of the economic reports dealing with housing have shown a little more strength recently. New home sales rose 1.6 percent in November and sales of existing homes climbed 4.0 percent. New home construction also improved, with housing starts rising 9.3 percent in November. Low mortgage rates, an improving job market, and some reported easing in mortgage underwriting standards has raised hopes that the momentum will carry over into 2012. DemandFri, 30 Dec 2011 18:36:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-22.v03.htmlThe passage of the Korean and U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) is an important enough milestone for South Korea’s economy and trade policy that it deserves a special report of its own. South Korea is now the first Asian country to have signed FTAs with both the European Union and United States. With global growth slowing, more and more countries are turning to protectionist trade policies to shield their domestic industries and support their export sectors. The recent tit-for-tat betweenThu, 22 Dec 2011 22:41:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-22.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-22.v02.htmlExecutive Summary Our last report on India was titled “Indian Economy: Some Deterioration at the Margin,” and many of the themes that we highlighted then remain in force six months later.1 Specifically, inflation has remained elevated despite further deceleration in economic activity, and the composition of capital inflows, which are needed to finance the current account deficit, remain skewed toward portfolio investment. Consequently, capital inflows have weakened in the past few months asThu, 22 Dec 2011 09:17:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-22.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-22.htmlGeorgia Repositions Its Economy for a New Century Georgia’s painstakingly slow recovery continues to show few signs of shifting into higher gear, at least if you look at the most recent economic data. Georgia’s unemployment rate has stubbornly remained near 1o percent through much of 2011, and the latest nonfarm employment numbers show payrolls declining 0.5 percent over the past year, producing a net loss of nearly 20,000 jobs. Long-running problems in the housing market and the financialThu, 22 Dec 2011 08:56:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-20.v03.htmlGlobal Speed Bump Hits South Korea’s Economy South Korea’s economic outlook is in flux. China’s sharp economic deceleration and the worsening financial and economic crisis in Europe are bound to have a detrimental impact on South Korea’s economic outlook for 2012. International organizations from the International Monetary Fund to OECD have been busy decreasing their GDP growth forecasts for South Korea in recent months. The Bank of Korea also acknowledged the intensifying headwinds last monthTue, 20 Dec 2011 16:12:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-20.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-20.v02.htmlAs the old adage goes, “A picture is worth a thousand words.” There is another quote sometimes attributed to Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte, who said "Un bon croquis vaut mieux qu'un long discours," roughly translated, "A good sketch is better than a long speech." Perhaps in no other field is this more true than in Economics. While some of our subscribers could devour data and statistics all day, the fact of the matter is that many of our other readers are looking to us to “bottom-line it” forTue, 20 Dec 2011 09:35:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-20.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-20.htmlAccording to the popular narrative, the European sovereign debt crisis was caused by runaway government spending in peripheral European countries. However, this narrative is somewhat of an oversimplification. Although Greece, Portugal and Italy all entered the current crisis with budget deficits and elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, Spain and Ireland had exemplary fiscal records. We readily acknowledge that governments need to balance their budgets over the economic cycle, but we believe thatTue, 20 Dec 2011 08:53:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-15.htmlRussia’s economic fortunes have historically been tied to oil, otherwise known as black gold. But when the financial crisis and subsequent global economic downturn hit, the country’s lack of economic diversity sent it into the worst economic tailspin among the major emerging economies. However, while the economy quickly rebounded on improved demand for oil, economic growth remains below rates seen before the global turmoil of 2007-2009 and well below that of its BRIC brethren. The sense amongThu, 15 Dec 2011 08:53:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-14.htmlNew Jersey’s economy continues to grow at a moderate pace along with the nation. Real GDP data show economic activity in the Garden State grew 2.5 percent in 2010. By comparison, the U.S. economy grew 2.6 percent in 2010. In the context of slow economic growth, all three rating agencies—Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s—have downgraded the state’s general obligation debt this year, noting budgetary pressure due to the state’s mounting pension and otherWed, 14 Dec 2011 15:45:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-13.htmlDespite the challenges of the past few years, economic growth in Australia has been remarkably immune to the economic weakness that has characterized the recoveries across the rest of the developed world. In fact, Australia can claim the title of the strongest developed economy in the world over the past six years or so, as measured by GDP growth. While part of Australia’s economic success story has to do with a less-levered fiscal situation and resilient domestic demand, a major driver ofTue, 13 Dec 2011 08:54:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-08.htmlAlthough most measures of credit quality saw further improvement in the third quarter, some concerns have arisen. According to the Federal Reserve, loan delinquency rates fell across the board in the third quarter on both a quarter-ago and year-ago basis. The overall loan delinquency rate continues to fall and is now below the peak of the 1990-1991 recession. On a year-ago basis, the biggest improvement was seen in commercial real estate loans, with commercial and industrial loans close behind.Thu, 08 Dec 2011 16:32:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-01.htmlResidential construction continues to struggle across much of the country amid a glut of excess single-family homes and condominiums. Starts of single-family homes are expected to hit a modern era low of 420,000 units in 2011 and improve only modestly during the coming year, rising around 8 percent to 455,000 units. Overall starts were down less dramatically in 2011, thanks to a 35 percent rise in multi-family starts. Most of that increase was in apartments, where demand has been outpacingThu, 01 Dec 2011 10:10:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-12-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-30.v02.htmlThis morning, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank announced a coordinated action that is designed to improve liquidity in interbank funding markets. As we describe in further detail below, the ultimate aim of the action is to reduce borrowing costs for households and businesses. Specifically, the central banks have agreed to reduce the interest rate that they charge each other for U.S.Wed, 30 Nov 2011 21:34:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-30.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-30.htmlCalifornia Creating More Jobs, But Risks Remain California’s labor market has shown some encouraging signs of improvement over the past three months, though job creation for much of the year has been a hit-or-miss venture. California nonfarm payrolls have increased at a moderate pace for three consecutive months now through October. According to the state’s department of labor, California added a net 25,700 jobs in October, and the September jobs data were revised higher to a solid 39,200Wed, 30 Nov 2011 12:53:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-23.htmlExecutive Summary Many Mexico analysts have been calling attention to Mexico’s current economic environment and comparing it to the run-up to the 2008 crisis. They are pointing to the improvements in the country’s position to sustain or to survive an implosion coming from today’s crisis-prone developed countries. Many analysts are using this same argument when referring to U.S. consumers and firms, who are, today, awash in cash and decreasing their leverage levels. To their credit, it is trueWed, 23 Nov 2011 17:12:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-22.v02.htmlThe announcement this week of the failure of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction has left many wondering how the inaction of Congress will affect the U.S. economy. The committee, tasked with finding a way to reduce the U.S. budget deficit by at least $1.2 trillion, announced its failure to come to an agreement on Monday afternoon. While this “Super Committee” was unable to come to a consensus on how to reduce the long-term deficit, its mission was a successful failure in thatTue, 22 Nov 2011 21:40:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-22.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-22.htmlIn the wake of the biggest financial disruption since the Great Depression, retailers have had to improvise and adapt, as cash-strapped consumers spend their dollars much more cautiously than they did during the previous expansion. Consumers are not going into the holiday season in a particularly cheery mood either. Consumers’ views on overall economic conditions and their own job and income prospects remain near recession lows, and the unemployment rate is still above 9 percent. In addition,Tue, 22 Nov 2011 12:36:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-17.htmlOptimism Is Giving Way to Reality The year began with a great deal of optimism that the economic recovery would gradually build momentum and that operating fundamentals for commercial real estate would continue to improve. Much has changed, however. Renewed worries about European sovereign debt, growing concerns about tackling U.S. budget deficits and a sharp deterioration in consumer confidence that coincides with an unsettling slowdown in real income growth has altered the landscape forThu, 17 Nov 2011 08:45:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-16.htmlGlobal Expansion Should Continue, but Risks Abound After growing at a strong rate in 2010, global growth has slowed significantly this year. Specifically, we estimate that global GDP will expand 3.5 percent in 2011 after posting a growth rate close to 5 percent last year. Indeed, growth in industrial production (IP) in the countries comprising the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which are essentially the 34 most advanced economies in the world, has slowed markedlyWed, 16 Nov 2011 09:36:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-15.htmlIt is undeniable that there is a growing income gap between the ultra-rich and the rest of America. Indeed, a recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) makes it clear that from 1979 to 2007, the income gap between top income earners and everybody else grew ever more lopsided. This disparity in the American economic experience over the past generation is among the primary catalysts for the various “Occupy” movements across the country. In our view, this issue of income inequalityTue, 15 Nov 2011 14:20:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-14.htmlThe growing financial turmoil in Europe has raised questions about how the U.S. economy is likely to be affected. Our October monthly outlook noted that we believe Europe is sliding into at least a mild recession.1 While much of the immediate concern has dealt with the potential effect on the U.S. financial markets and broader economy, this report goes a step further by investigating the potential effect on specific states within the United States. Our findings suggest that while the effect ofMon, 14 Nov 2011 21:08:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-03.htmlThe manufacturing sector has played an important role in the evolution of the U.S. economy ever since the industrial revolution. In recent times the nation has observed a wave of outsourcing and news stories of factory closures with jobs disappearing from local communities. Some have suggested that these trends are indicative of a domestic manufacturing sector that is in decline. In this report we break down the evidence and explore the history of the U.S. manufacturing sector and contemporaryThu, 03 Nov 2011 21:54:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-01.htmlThe Housing Recovery is Going Nowhere Fast Despite renewed attention from the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve, the housing recovery appears to be going nowhere fast. Sales of new and existing homes have been range bound for the past 18 months, and home prices appear set to slide again, as the underlying demand for housing slows even further and foreclosures increase. We have lowered our near-term forecast for new home sales and single-family construction, and stretched out theTue, 01 Nov 2011 09:17:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-11-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-10-07.htmlEuropean Central Bank Remains on Hold, For Now The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on October 6 to keep its main policy rate unchanged at 1.50 percent, where it has been maintained over the past three months (Figure 1). After the recent announcement that the “flash” CPI inflation rate for September rose to 3.0 percent, which was much higher than expected, most analysts had not expected the ECB to cut rates at this policy meeting (Figure 2). In his post-meeting press conference ECBFri, 07 Oct 2011 08:09:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-10-06.htmlIn our latest Housing Chartbook, we mentioned that a definitive bottom for home prices is within sight.1 Even though nominal nationwide home prices are still about 15 percent above their long-run trend, on a trough-to-trough basis, home prices have now fallen back down to trend in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms (Figure 1 and Figure 2).2 Real home prices could certainly break through their long-run trend in the coming months—as distressed sales continue to account for a large share of totalThu, 06 Oct 2011 13:08:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-10-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-10-04.htmlExecutive Summary Although CPI inflation in the United Kingdom is currently well above the 2 percent target that the Bank of England (BoE) is mandated to achieve in the “medium term,” the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has not tightened policy. The MPC argues that CPI inflation will recede in the coming months as some temporary factors, such as the hike in the value-added tax and higher energy and commodity prices, begin to dissipate. We find the MPC’s claims to be generally valid, and weTue, 04 Oct 2011 08:21:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-10-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-30.htmlHow Sturdy Is the Floor? While we will likely have to endure a few more months of price declines, a definitive bottom in home sales and new home construction appears to have taken hold. Sales of new homes appear to have bottomed at around a 300,000-unit pace, and existing home sales have perked up a bit as lenders have become a bit more aggressive in terms of clearing out foreclosures in many parts of the country. We expect home prices to decline a bit further, as foreclosures and distressedFri, 30 Sep 2011 08:04:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-29.htmlExecutive Summary Ireland has recorded two consecutive quarters of relatively strong GDP growth. That said, the level of real GDP in Ireland remains significantly below its pre-downturn peak and growth has been driven largely by exports over the past two years, which reflects the global expansion, at least in part. Ireland has also improved the price competitiveness of its goods and services via a marked decline in unit labor costs. Not only have wages been held in check by high unemployment,Thu, 29 Sep 2011 11:30:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-27.v02.htmlExecutive Summary Ireland has recorded two consecutive quarters of relatively strong GDP growth. That said, the level of real GDP in Ireland remains significantly below its pre-downturn peak and growth has been driven largely by exports over the past two years, which reflects the global expansion, at least in part. Ireland has also improved the price competitiveness of its goods and services via a marked decline in unit labor costs. Not only have wages been held in check by high unemployment,Tue, 27 Sep 2011 20:57:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-27.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-27.htmlThe Changing Framework for U.S.–Southeast Asian Economic Interaction Prior to the Great Recession of 2007–2009, the framework for the economic relationship between the United States and Southeast Asia followed two primary themes. Economic progress in Asia was driven by export growth to the rest of the world, particularly consumer products to the United States. In turn, United States economic growth reflected credit finance for both U.S. consumer spending as well as federal and state governmentTue, 27 Sep 2011 20:51:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-26.htmlSex, race and ethnicity are always touchy subjects. However, good policy making demands we look at the reality of the differences in the employment experience if we wish to make progress on jobs. The Mancession, the Mancovery and Industry Mix As noted in our earlier pieces, the labor market woes brought on by the recession and painfully slow recovery have not been shared evenly across groups. Unemployment since the start of the recession has risen disproportionately for men, so much so thatMon, 26 Sep 2011 20:47:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/special-commentary/2011-09-26.html