“Ain’t No Sunshine When Stimulus Is Gone”
Even with the recovery finally taking hold, the outlook for state finances remains bleak. The exceptionally weak labor market, with high and unusually long-term unemployment, continues to restrain personal income tax receipts, while falling home prices and disappointing retail sales are hitting property and sales tax collections. State lawmakers already closed a cumulative budget gap of $158.5 billion earlier in fiscal year 2010, but new gaps have emerged as revenues have failed to keep pace with spending. Midyear budget gaps bring the total shortfall for fiscal 2010 to $196.2 billion.1
Revenues are expected to decline further as state tax collections traditionally lag trends in the overall economic recovery. In the previous recession, tax revenues lagged nearly a year following the end of the recession. The extended drag on revenues is due to the weak labor market, which weighs on personal income, consumption and corporate profits growth.
Many states have already projected huge budget gaps for fiscal 2011 with estimates of $103.5 billion.2 Provisions in the proposed federal budget for fiscal 2011, however, will likely not be enough to offset growing budget concerns. With many states having already scaled back many nonessential services and boosted taxes and user fees, there are few easy alternatives left. The drag from state and local government will continue to shave a few points off GDP growth, further slowing an already modest economic recovery.







