The Dust Hasn’t Settled Just Yet
Despite robust economic growth in the second half of last year and a more upbeat assessment for economic activity during the first part of 2010, the outlook for commercial real estate has not materially improved. Credit quality is still deteriorating as delinquencies and defaults increase. Operating fundamentals continue to decline. Vacancy rates across all property types have either already risen to record highs or appear set to. Lending standards remain exceptionally tight, and there has been very little progress made at clearing up the logjam of properties with maturing loans in the next few years, many of which are underwater or have seen loan-to-value (LTV) ratios skyrocket to levels that are difficult to refinance.This list of problems is nothing new. There has been a persistent chatter about the impending dislocations that will unfold when large numbers of borrowers are unable to refinance commercial real estate loans coming due over the next two to three years. Many of these loans were made at the height of the real estate bubble, between 2005 and mid-2007, when valuations were stretched to the max. Economic conditions have proven to be much more difficult than the operating assumptions many of these projects expected, which means occupancy rates and rents never reached the levels needed to adequately service debt payments. As a result, values have tumbled and many properties are now worth less than the balance due on their loans.
The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) is currently down 42 percent from its 2007 peak. Values have fallen in every region, but appear to be most problematic in the South and West where there was a great deal of construction activity during the past decade. Declines are expected to continue and we expect the Moody’s/REAL CPPI to ultimately fall by 50 percent.







