Executive Summary
Chinese New Year will be celebrated on Feb. 14, and 2010 will be the Year of the Tiger. The sharp increase in Asian equity markets last year and, in some cases, in property markets has some investors wondering whether 2010 will turn out to be the year of the Asian asset bubble. Are bubbles starting to inflate in Asia?
Probably not, at least not yet in our view. Yes, some equity markets posted spectacular gains in 2009, but the increases only offset some of the outsized losses that were registered during the preceding year. Indeed, most Asian stock indexes remain well below peaks that were reached in 2007. Although forward-looking P/E ratios in Asia may be a bit rich now, they are not at levels yet that most observers would associate with bubbles.
Similarly, some property markets (e.g., Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai) have experienced significant price increases over the past year. Again, however, prices in most markets are not yet back to levels that prevailed a few years ago. China has experienced the largest net increase in house prices, about 75 percent on a national basis over the past 10 years. Even if house prices were to decline over the next few years, the low leverage ratio of the average Chinese household makes a vicious cycle of foreclosures/further downward pressure on house prices unlikely. Indeed, Asian economies, which experienced their own financial crises a decade ago, are not overly leveraged at present. In our view, asset prices in Asia have further room to rise over the next few years as the region releverages.
Do Recent Sharp Increases in Asset Prices Portend a Bubble?
Asia did not escape unscathed from the financial market turbulence of the past few years. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged more than 70 percent between its peak in October 2007 and November 2008. The carnage in Singapore and Indonesia was nearly as bad as the Straights Times Index and the Jakarta Composite Index each experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 60 percent between late 2007 and early 2009. Residential real estate also took a hit. For example, house prices in Hong Kong and Singapore tumbled 25 percent as equity markets were swooning.As with policymakers in the West, authorities in Asia responded to the global financial meltdown by aggressively cutting interest rates and enacting sizable fiscal stimulus packages. Consequently, economic growth has rebounded sharply in Asia, and the turnaround in asset markets has been nothing short of breathtaking. The value of major stock indexes in China, India and Indonesia doubled in 2009, and house prices in some high-profile parts of the region are nearing previous highs. Although stock markets in Asia have sold off somewhat recently due to concerns about monetary tightening in China, the word “bubble” is increasingly used to describe many Asian asset markets. According to the Chinese calendar, 2010 is the Year of the Tiger. Could it also be the year of the Asian asset bubble?







