Executive Summary

Most observers look for a sluggish U.S. economic recovery as American consumers delever after years of building up debt. However, British consumers are even more geared than their American counterparts. Isn’t the outlook for consumer spending in the United Kingdom even bleaker than it is on the other side of the Atlantic?

Although we do not expect a vigorous upturn in personal consumption expenditures in the United Kingdom, the outlook for British consumer spending may not be quite as grim as some observers expect. First, aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England feed quickly into lower mortgage payments, which give consumers more purchasing power. In addition, consumer spending appears to be responsive to changes in household wealth, and recent increases in house prices can help to shore up consumer spending. Private consumption expenditures likely won’t be the millstone, which some observers fear it will be, that pulls the British economy even further underwater.