Executive Summary

 Gold prices have surged in recent months, which some observers claim is a clear warning that inflation will soon turn sharply higher as it did in the late 1970s. However, other forward-looking market-based inflation indicators do not support this hypothesis. Inflation indicators such as bond yields, consumer expectations and TIPS spreads have been running at fairly depressed levels, which suggest inflation will likely remain benign.1 If the spike in gold prices is not a sign of looming inflation, why are gold prices at a record high?
It appears that foreign central banks may be playing a role in driving gold prices higher. After two decades of reducing their holdings of gold, central bank purchases of the precious metal set a record in July and anecdotal evidence suggests they have continued to buy more recently. In addition, the increase in futures contracts outstanding indicates that speculative activity is also picking up.


 Does the apparent attempt of foreign central banks to build up their holdings of gold indicate that they have “lost confidence” in the dollar? Probably not, at least not yet. Foreign central banks appear to be diversifying on a flow basis only because they remain net buyers of U.S. Treasury securities. If foreign central banks had indeed “lost confidence” in the greenback, we think they would be reducing their holdings of Treasury securities. However, indications that the United States is not serious about addressing its long-run fiscal challenges could eventually lead foreign central banks to reassess their willingness to continue financing U.S. government obligations.