Executive Summary
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) swept to power in parliamentary elections this weekend, unseating the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan for almost the entire post-World War II era. The DPJ’s policy platform tends to favor consumers over business interests, and the Japanese economy could get a bit of a boost in the short run as handouts to consumers rise. However, the longer-run effect on the economy is more open to question. Indeed, long-term growth prospects could be affected negatively if larger government deficits cause long-term interest rates to rise. In theory, the DPJ would be less inclined than the LDP to intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent the yen from strengthening.
Landside Victory for the DPJ
The DPJ won a landside victory in parliamentary elections this weekend, capturing 308 seats in the 480-seat lower house of the Japanese Diet. Therefore, the DPJ will not need to rely on coalition partners to advance its policy agenda. Yukio Hatayama, the leader of the DPJ, is set to become the country’s next prime minister, replacing Taro Aso, whose popularity sank along with the Japanese economy, which has experienced its deepest recession since the end of the Second World War (Figure 1). In a complete reversal of fortune, the LDP saw its seat total plunge from 303 to 119. Except for a 10-month stint in 1993, the LDP has governed the country nonstop since the early 1950s.
Economic Policies Should Favor the Consumer
The DPJ’s landside victory is certainly historic from a political perspective, but does it have any implications for the Japanese economy? In our view, the effects on the macro-economy could be marginally positive, at least in the short run. The economic policies of the LDP over the past few decades have tended to put the interests of big business ahead of the consumer. For example, the LDP has implemented massive public works spending over the past few decades, which has benefitted large construction companies. In addition, the prevalence of tariff and nontariff barriers helps to shield Japanese businesses from foreign competition, and the LDP has historically favored a weaker yen in order to boost Japanese exports, which has been a boon to large manufacturers.







