Housing Is Nearing a Bottom but Not a Recovery

The U.S. economy appears set to begin a recovery before the housing market does. Our latest forecast has real GDP moving back into positive territory during the third quarter, and we now expect the recession to end at some point this summer. Home sales and new home construction should bottom out at around the same time as the overall economy. A recovery in home sales and new home construction still appears to be a long way off, however, as the unwinding from the housing boom still has not entirely played out. Foreclosures are still rising, prices are still falling and a large proportion of recent home sales have been foreclosures sales, short sales or some other type of distressed transaction.

There are formidable hurdles to a sustained recovery in home sales and residential construction. First and foremost, consumers appear to be in no mood to buy a new home. While there is some evidence suggesting that layoffs are slowing, there is no sign that hiring is increasing. The economy is still losing jobs at a rapid clip and the unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in more than a quarter of a century. We expect the jobless rate to top out about a year from now somewhere between 10.5 and 11 percent.

The continued rise in the unemployment rate means foreclosures will likely remain problematic well into 2010. Past experience has shown that foreclosures tend to peak about six months after the unemployment rate tops out. This means that at a minimum foreclosures will remain high, which will keep pressure on housing prices.

Rising unemployment and high foreclosures also mean the underlying demand for housing will remain soft. Household formations tend to pick up about one year after employment bottoms out. Our forecast has employment bottoming out in the first half of 2010, which means household formations should begin to pick up in 2011.

Unfortunately, household formations will likely fall further before they begin to pick up again. The high level of foreclosures and decline in the homeownership rate, particularly among young persons, suggests that household formations are declining. This may help explain the continued rise in the number of vacant homes for sale and for rent. This series is currently running just under 2 million units above the level that persisted before the housing boom and is consistent with our estimate of the current excess supply of housing. With household formations declining, the number of vacant homes for sale and for rent will likely increase even further, which means a recovery in housing starts is still quite a way off.