What Do Previous Recessions Tell Us About theCurrent Recession and the Path to Recovery?
One of the most dangerous phrases one can mutter in the current economic environment is that “this time the business cycle is different.” In one sense this is always true, as no two business cycles are truly alike. However, a closer look at past recessions shows the severity of the recession and the shape of the recovery were largely influenced by the external shock or policy change that preceded the recession. This idea proposed in a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) paper adds additional color to the traditional rule of thumb first proposed by Victor Zarnowitz who noted that deep recessions are almost always followed by steep recoveries.1 The “almost” in this rule of thumb likely refers to recessions associated with both a financial crisis and global economic downturn. Those circumstances, which mirror the current environment, have been far more troublesome.
According to the IMF, recessions associated with a financial crisis have been more severe and lasted longer than downturns associated with other shocks. Further, recessions that have spread throughout the world have been longer and deeper than those confined to one region. This explanation is consistent with the current downturn, which has been unusually severe and suggests this downturn will be followed by a sluggish recovery. With the current recession already exceeding the duration of the most severe post-War recessions in the United States, it is worth revisiting the causes of earlier post-War downturns and the Great Depression to garner lessons.
- I. What Causes Recessions?
- II. Causes of Earlier United States Downturns
- III. The Great Depression
- IV. Early United States Post-War Recessions: 1950–1970
- V. United States Post-War Recessions: 1973-1991
- VI. The Great Moderation and Current Recession
- VII. Conclusion







