State of the Global Economy: The Intersection of Economy and Credit

I. “What is the current state of the global economy?”

Global economic growth averaged nearly five percent per annum from 2004 to 2007, the strongest four-year period of growth in decades (Figure 1). However, real GDP growth rates slowed in most countries in the first half of 2008, and it appears that many major economies have now slipped into recession due in part to the effects of the global credit crunch. Industrial production in the OECD has dropped off sharply (Figure 2). Economic growth in the developing world has also slowed this year.

Recession continues to be the theme for the U.S. economy as well. Coincident indicators such as employment and industrial production have fallen steeply since last autumn, and the unemployment rate has moved up over eight percent. The deteriorating job market, considerable losses of equity and housing wealth, and tight lending conditions have weighed down consumer sentiment and spending. In addition, businesses have cut back capital outlays in response to the softening outlook for sales as well as the difficulty of obtaining credit.