Executive Summary

The dollar appreciated versus most currencies in the second half of last year as the sharp decline in the price of oil caused the current account deficit to narrow significantly. Moreover, the greenback was helped by net sales of foreign assets by U.S. investors and by very strong purchases of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign central banks and investors.

The dollar’s fate going forward will be determined by the interplay of the current account deficit and net capital inflows. In that regard, we forecast that the dollar’s strength has further to run, at least in the near term. For starters, the U.S. current account deficit this year should be significantly smaller than it was in 2008, which will apply less downward pressure on the greenback. In addition, risk aversion probably won’t subside anytime soon, which will keep foreign investors interested in the safety and liquidity of U.S. Treasury securities. Furthermore, U.S. investors could continue to unload their holdings of foreign securities.

However, we do not look for the dollar to strengthen ad infinitum. Sooner or later, investors should begin to anticipate eventual recovery in the global economy, which will cause low-yielding U.S. Treasury securities to lose their appeal. In addition, rates of return in the United States should remain relatively low due to what we believe will be a sluggish recovery. Inflows of direct investment should weaken over the next year or two, and new issuance of structured fixed-income securities in the United States will probably remain anemic for the foreseeable future. Therefore, net capital inflows may be subdued next year, which should lead to stabilization and perhaps some modest depreciation of the greenback over the course of 2010.