Closing in on a Bottom in 2009

Signs are beginning to emerge that suggest sales of new and existing homes are moving toward a bottom. Actual sales figures took a positive turn in February and mortgage applications for the purchase of a home have increased in recent weeks as mortgage rates have tumbled. We expect sales to bottom this summer and look for some modest improvement during the second half of the year. Such a turn of events would be consistent with past recessions, which saw home sales turn around approximately six months before the broader economy did.

Home sales have turned up around the country, particularly in the hardest hit markets, where short sales and foreclosure sales account for a large proportion of transactions. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) estimates that distressed sales have accounted for 45 percent of existing home sales in recent months, which is one reason why prices have fallen so sharply. The combination of falling home prices and lower mortgage rates has made home ownership much more affordable. The NAR Housing Affordability Index has surged more than 50 points over the past 6 months and is at an all-time high.