The Household Balance Sheet
America’s worst economic downturn in a half century has changed the household savings ethos, at least temporarily. The personal saving rate has leapt higher over the past six months to about four percent. While the personal saving rate certainly has its flaws in capturing all the potential aspects of saving and has widely been criticized for many of them, it still gives at least one picture of consumers’ current ‘cash flows’ that is not directly impacted by rapid changes in asset values.
The personal saving rate has not been as high as it was at the start of 2009, on a sustained basis, since the 1990’s mid-cycle slowdown.1 In fact, the saving rate hovered just barely above zero percent from summer 2005 until mid-2008 at the height of the last expansion and into the first part of the downturn (Figure 1). Despite the current increase in the saving rate, our view is that America still roundly has a culture biased towards consumption, as opposed to saving, that will continue to guide us through this cycle and beyond. However, for now, consumers seem suitably spooked by the current state of the economy to increase their own personal reserves. The saving rate will likely continue to rise for the next several months driven higher by declines or weak growth in consumption as well as near-term tax relief. These will at least be partially, but not entirely, offset by weak wage & salary income growth as a result of the turmoil in the nation's labor market.







