Executive Summary

Most economies in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) appear to be in the midst of their deepest recessions in decades. However, policymakers in Greece, Italy and Spain, so-called “Club Med” countries, are hamstrung. Monetary policy is the domain of the politically independent European Central Bank (ECB), and high government debt-to-GDP ratios constrain the ability to engage in countercyclical fiscal policy. In addition, exchange rate depreciation versus other EMU countries, with which the “Club Med” countries have extensive trade ties, is out of the question due to the common use of the euro.

Greece, Italy and Spain all have sizeable current account deficits at present, a byproduct of their overvalued real exchange rates. With nominal exchange rate depreciation vis-à-vis other EMU countries impossible, unit labor costs will need to decline in the “Club Med” countries relative to major trading partners. Either productivity needs to accelerate, which is an uncertain prospect, or relative wages need to decline. In other words, Greece, Italy and Spain could be in for a long period of sub-par growth until their real exchange rates depreciate to more sustainable levels.

Some investors believe that a “Club Med” country could decide to abandon the euro between now and the end of next year, but there does not appear to be much political support for such a radical step at present. If, however, the Greek, Italian and Spanish economies remain stagnant for a number of years, then political momentum could begin to build for a re-introduction of national currencies. Ditching the euro may be unlikely, but it is no longer unthinkable.

The Euro Has Not Yet Provided Much Stimulus for EMU Countries

Most EMU countries appear to be in the midst of their deepest recessions in decades. For example, real GDP in Germany plunged at an annualized rate of 8.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 relative to the previous quarter, and France and Italy fared nearly as badly. Output in the former was down 5.3 percent and real GDP in the latter contracted 7.5 percent.