Executive Summary

Housing and Finance: Two Markets, One Search

Two characteristics distinguish the current cycle from traditional cycles. First, the 21st century housing/credit cycle is a dynamic system that, when shocked, moved to a new equilibrium that is quite different from what would have been expected and has not returned to its prior equilibrium. The housing/credit balance of 2004-2007 was an unstable equilibrium that when shocked, has collapsed to the downside.1 Moreover, the mere movement from the initial state to the new equilibrium has been very volatile and, at times, very uncertain. A second characteristic is that the current cycle reflects the interplay of two distinct sectors, housing and credit, which are related but are each seeking a path to a new equilibrium. In today’s world we see that the housing market is characterized by excess supply and yet the credit market is characterized by excess demand. Unfortunately, traditional price changes alone did not generate a new equilibrium in either market once both were shocked. Extra-market public policy has intervened to reach a stable equilibrium—which has not yet been achieved.

Disequilibrium in both markets is easily represented in Figure 1 which we published in Business Economics.2 Home prices, represented by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA, formerly OFHEO), continue to decline. This is consistent with an excess supply situation. Meanwhile, mortgage loan delinquencies continue to rise prompting lenders to tighten credit standards and thereby leading to a shortage of credit. Housing firmly remains in a state of significant disequilibrium, in our opinion, with an excess supply of housing and an excess demand (shortage of supply) for credit. Two markets, both in disequilibrium, in search of a new equilibrium.