Cyclical Waves, Secular Undercurrents

Movements in employment reflect the influence of both cyclical and secular forces in the labor market. In the current recessionary environment both of these forces are likely to generate job losses that exceed the past two recessions and will reduce employment across most sectors.

Job losses are typical of every recession period, and more cyclical sectors such as construction and manufacturing experience employment swings of a greater magnitude (page 3). In this way the current recession is similar to earlier recessions. The employment pattern of 2008 follows the 2001 recession and suggests we can expect continued job losses through 2009. We estimate these losses will be more than 100,000 per month through next summer.