Benchmarking Trends and Cycles: a Method for all Seasons

In many banking and investment decisions we seek to corroborate our decisions based upon some independent evidence. In economics we have been using a procedure that helps break down each economic time series into two components—a trend and a cycle about that trend. For any business decision-maker, the identification of trends and cycles in any series provides key insights as to when there is a change in the risk-reward tradeoff in economic activity. For example, we can identify the trend in the price of an asset and with information about the cycle of asset prices about that trend we can identify likely points where the values of an asset are above or below its trend values.

While the polar positions of the boom and bust certainly make for colorful debate, the more subtle flows of the credit cycle are of greater significance on a regular basis for decision-makers. We really need to know when any economic series (housing prices, employment, inflation, credit spreads, or profits for example) is beginning to deviate from its trend so that we can take action before the “boom” or “bust.” Instead of talking about booms and busts, we are focused on identifying periods of acceleration and deceleration in any economic time series about a trend.