5
0
The Outlook for U.S. Exports Yet Again
Tue, Dec 2 2008, 10:40 GMT
by Jay Bryson
Executive Summary
The intensification of the global credit crunch since mid-September has led to a significant deterioration in the outlook for global economic growth next year. Consequently, the outlook for U.S. exports, which helped to prop up U.S. GDP growth earlier this year, has darkened, and an overall decline in U.S. exports next year now seems likely.
There will be differential effects on individual companies depending on industry and export destination. Economic theory predicts and history shows that investment spending typically exhibits wide fluctuations over the cycle, so it seems reasonable to expect significant declines in capital goods exports in 2009. Exports of other cyclically sensitive goods, such as industrial supplies and materials and autos, should also weaken. However, exports of goods that are not very sensitive to the cycle, such as non-discretionary consumer goods and agricultural products, probably will fare relatively better.
Exchange rates will also play a role in determining export prospects next year. In that regard, American exports to Europe should be more at risk than exports to Asia because the dollar has generally strengthened more vis-à-vis European currencies than against Asian currencies.
Published on Tue, Dec 2 2008, 10:46 GMT
Archive
- Pass-Through Effect of Housing Weakness
Published On Wed, Jul 1 2009, 13:21 GMT - Adjustment and Rebuilding in the Financial Sector
Published On Tue, Jun 30 2009, 12:53 GMT - Labor Market Evolution: Realities and Romantics
Published On Fri, Jun 19 2009, 10:53 GMT - What Drives Consumer Delinquency Rates?
Published On Fri, Jun 19 2009, 08:02 GMT - Housing Chartbook: June 2009
Published On Fri, Jun 12 2009, 08:17 GMT
Wachovia Corporation
| P.O. Box 025383 Miami, FL 33102-5383
http://www.wachovia.com | sam.bullard@wachovia.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wachovia Corporation and its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wachovia Corporation or any of its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or any foreign exchange transaction, or as personalized investment advice. Securities and foreign exchange transactions are not FDIC-insured, are not bank-guaranteed, and may lose value.Related reports
Weekly Focus - Is it strong enough? by Danske Bank A/S
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 15:00 GMT
Weekly Market Commentary - Libor and Official Interest rates are at their narrowest by Mizuho Corporate Bank
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 14:33 GMT
London Gold Market Report by BullionVault.com
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 13:24 GMT
Your Summer Housing Market Update by Money and Markets
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 12:39 GMT
European Market Update - Spain June Services PMI: 41.2 v 39.1 prior by TradeTheNews.com
Fri, Jul 3 2009, 12:32 GMT
indicator, eurusd, us, retailsales, consumer, usdjpy
View AllRelated content
European Markets mixed, EUR rises and GBP lower
FXstreet.com | Fri, Jul 3 2009, 14:38 GMT
Forex: EUR/USD rebounds at 1.3980, back above 1.4000
FXstreet.com | Fri, Jul 3 2009, 11:46 GMT
CURRENCIES: Dollar Edges Higher In Thin Trade Ahead Of Holiday
Dow Jones | Fri, Jul 3 2009, 11:46 GMT
2nd UPDATE: UK Service Sector Grows, End Of Recession Nears
Dow Jones | Fri, Jul 3 2009, 10:15 GMT
UPDATE: UK Service Sector Grows, But Slows In June
Dow Jones | Fri, Jul 3 2009, 09:43 GMT
indicator, eurusd, us, retailsales, consumer, usdjpy
View All
Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES! Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.