Two Steps Forward, One Step Backward
There has been a great deal of excitement surrounding the housing outlook for 2012. Last year ended on a fairly solid note, with sales appearing to improve, inventories apparently declining and builder optimism posting four increases in a row. The latest data, however, are a little less heartening. New home sales for December showed sales weakening somewhat, and the latest reading for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a larger-than-expected decline in November. We remain somewhat optimistic about the outlook for 2012, but we generally see less improvement than does the consensus. Sales of both new and existing homes will improve this year, and new home construction will post its first meaningful gain since the home-buyer tax credit frenzy. Unfortunately, there is still much work to be completed before a self-sustaining recovery in housing can take place.One of the most encouraging aspects of the housing outlook is that the policy environment is turning more favorable. The Federal Reserve and the Obama Administration both realize that the U.S. economic recovery is not likely to strengthen appreciably until residential construction recovers. To that end, we expect a whole host of policy initiatives to be thrown at the housing market in 2012. One of the most important developments is that there appears to be real progress being made at a final agreement between the state attorneys general and five large mortgage servicers. If a deal can be reached, we believe we will begin to make meaningful progress at clearing out some of the shadow inventory that is hanging over the market. While it will likely take years to clear out all of the excesses, just being able to clarify the size of the problem and clearing some of the inventory will go a long way toward helping normalize the unusually conservative appraisal process and helping loosen some of the more tight lending requirements in place today.







