• Since the onset of the recession in late 2007, US auto and light truck sales have plummeted to historical lows. However, going into H2 09, there are several good reasons to believe that motor vehicle production could be one of the main drivers of GDP growth.
  • Demand for vehicles is set to recover in H2 09 – perhaps strongly. Pent-up demand could be unleashed very quickly as the government’s CARS incentive programme is now kicking in. On top of this, healing credit markets and tax breaks should support spending power.
  • The inventory cycle dynamics are strong in this part of the economy. Just to stabilise motor vehicle inventories at the current very low level of demand, production needs to be ramped up 20-25%.
  • Inventory dynamics in the car sector alone could contribute about 0.75-1.00pp to annualised GDP growth in H2 09 while increased demand could add a further 1.0-1.5pp. In that case, the auto sector will turn a 0.50pp headwind into a 2.00- 2.25pp tailwind to GDP in H2 09, i.e. a net boost of 2.50-2.75pp.
  • There is a chance that most of the boost will be delivered in Q3. Hence, the auto sector plays an important role in our expectation that the US economy will return to 3% growth rates already in the current quarter.