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Research US
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14
2
US: Falling down
Fri, Nov 7 2008, 14:01 GMT
by Peter Possing Andersen, Signe Roed-Frederiksen
• Consumer spending has seen the worst performance since the 1992 recession with a contraction of 3.1% q/q AR in Q3. Recent data suggest that the Q4 performance could be even worse, and that a stabilisation is not within reach before next year. Hence, GDP for 2009 is now tracking somewhat below our standing forecast of 0.0%.
• Although falling energy prices are delivering a 'super boost' to consumption in Q4 and Q1, consumers are currently facing significant headwinds due to unusually tough financial conditions and negative labour market dynamics. On top of this, recessionary dynamics seem to have become selfperpetuating.
• Unfortunately, the energy boost will deliver only a one-off effect for Q4 and Q1, while financial conditions will act as a brake for much longer. Moreover, the labour market will take quite a long time to recover. Hence, consumers face an uphill battle and the outlook is for a very slow recovery and below trend growth throughout 2009.
• The risks to our forecasts are larger than usual, as the combination and force of the shocks facing US households are quite extreme. Importantly, though, risks are not only skewed to the downside. A second round of fiscal stimulus (expected to be in the range of USD 100300bn) looks increasingly likely early next year, providing some potential upside risk.
Published on Fri, Nov 7 2008, 14:05 GMT
Archive
- Job recovery ahead
Published On Thu, Sep 10 2009, 10:30 GMT - US: Gauging the potential from a turn in housing
Published On Fri, Aug 28 2009, 09:30 GMT - US: Auto sector to boost H2 growth
Published On Mon, Aug 3 2009, 09:46 GMT - US: A united rescue effort, but short on detail
Published On Wed, Feb 11 2009, 10:13 GMT - US: How much bang for the Obama buck?
Published On Wed, Jan 28 2009, 09:18 GMT
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This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
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