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US: Taking stock of the bear market
Wed, Jul 30 2008, 07:27 GMT
by Peter Possing Andersen
- • Over the past year, equity markets have been declining as problems in the financial sector have fuelled risk aversion and the earnings outlook has deteriorated. In the US, the equity market is now flirting with bear market territory.
- • The plunge in equity wealth - in the US as well as globally - adds another headwind to the economy on top of the housing market correction, tighter credit, and rising commodity prices. However, for a number of reasons the economy is currently less sensitive to equity market swings than during the previous downturn in 2000-2003. Firstly, household equity holdings now account for a smaller share of household balance sheets and are smaller relative to disposable income. Secondly, corporate imbalances are smaller this time around.
- • During this expansion, equity markets have been much less important for GDP growth than in the previous expansion. Over the past four quarters, the stock market has turned from adding a modest ½pp to GDP growth to subtracting a modest ¼pp from growth. Unless equity markets weaken significantly further, this headwind is not set to intensify much.
Published on Wed, Jul 30 2008, 07:31 GMT
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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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