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Research Euroland

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Denmark: Pro−euro majority is falling

Thu, Jun 25 2009, 07:09 GMT
by Steen Bocian

Danske Bank A/S

Danske Bank regularly surveys the opinion of Danes on adopting the euro. Our June poll showed that the Yes camp maintained a narrow lead over the No side. However, the Yes lead continued to shrink, as it has done in recent months – so our June poll does not give grounds for concluding that a majority of Danes would be certain to vote in favour of joining the euro at any future referendum. The modest Yes lead represents a return to a more normal situation following the brief Yes rally in November and December last year.

Our June poll showed that 39.9% of Danes polled would definitely vote Yes to Danish EMU participation, while 38.8% were certain No voters. Add to this the 10% of voters who are in doubt, but lean towards voting Yes and the 7.8% who would perhaps vote No – and the Yes camp has a lead of 3.3 percentage points. This is a rather modest lead, and a comparison with the polls we conducted earlier this year shows – as already mentioned – that the lead has shrunk. In any event, many Danes are still in doubt about how to vote.

The temporary momentum of the Yes side in the final months of 2008 reflected the autumn economic agenda being heavily affected by the escalating financial crisis. Due to the turmoil in financial markets, the Danish central bank, Danmarks Nationalbank (DN), had to widen the rate spread to the eurozone a couple of times during October. Meanwhile, the Danish economy slowed sharply, and many Danes began to feel the impact of rising interest payments on their budgets. This stimulated support among Danish voters for joining the euro. However, since then the foreign exchange turmoil has subsided, so opinion polls have more or less returned to normal, with a modest Yes lead that will likely make a future referendum on euro membership a very close run race.

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Published on  Thu, Jun 25 2009, 09:05 GMT