Regional Economic Commentary
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New Jersey Outlook
Wed, Jul 1 2009, 09:50 GMT
by Anika Khan, Mark Vitner
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
The Garden State’s Economic Outlook is not so Rosy
New Jersey’s economy continues to falter under the weight of the current recession and financial crisis. Nonfarm employment has dropped substantially, with the biggest declines in professional & business services and manufacturing. Mergers and acquisitions in the state’s pharmaceutical and financial services industries will likely continue to weigh on employment in coming quarters. Housing markets have stumbled with home prices down 6.3 percent from its peak.
Economic Activity in New Jersey
While economic growth slowed significantly in New Jersey last year, at least there was growth. States like Florida, Michigan, Delaware and Alaska were not as fortunate with state gross domestic product posting large declines in 2008. Real gross domestic product in New Jersey eked out a modest gain of 0.6 percent despite the recession and current struggles with the state budget. However, similar to many states in the rest of the nation, manufacturing and construction were drags on the Garden State’s economic growth, shaving off 0.5 percentage points from the state’s real GDP last year. Moreover, due to New Jersey’s close proximity to New York and heavy concentration of back office financial services, real GDP for New Jersey’s finance and insurance sector fell 1.0 percent year-over-year. Output also declined in wholesale trade, retailing and transportation & warehousing.
The notable bright spot in 2008 was professional, scientific & technical services which posted a year-over-year increase of 8.6 percent, the largest gain since 1998. The gain was mostly driven by pharmaceutical scientific research & development, but we do not expect the industry to remain the pillar of strength as in recent years. Consolidations and structural changes in the pharmaceutical industry will likely begin to be a drag on the Garden State’s output. Moreover, firms related to the financial services industry, such as legal and accounting, will likely continue to struggle due to the financial crisis as they downsize and seek cost-efficient measures.
Since around 2002, economic growth in New Jersey has generally lagged behind that of the nation. With the state’s primary drivers of economic growth weighed down by the recession and credit markets, output in the Garden State will likely contract this year, but will likely not be as severe as in the overall national economy.
Published on
Wed, Jul 1 2009, 09:50 GMT

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Florida Economic Outlook
Fri, Jun 12 2009, 08:05 GMT
by Mark Vitner
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Florida Faces a More Difficult Road to Recovery
U.S. economic conditions deteriorated significantly late last year, after the financial crisis intensified. Real GDP fell at a 5.7 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2009, following a 6.3 percent annual rate decline in the fourth quarter. Output has fallen 2.5 percent over the past year, marking the sharpest drop in output since the third quarter of 1982. Weakness is extraordinarily broad-based throughout the economy, with even the historically recession-resistant education, healthcare and government sectors seeing signs of strain.
We believe the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2009 will mark the darkest hours of this recession. Successive quarters should see conditions gradually improve. The recession, however, will likely drag on through this summer, but the worst has likely passed. This means the current recession will be the longest and deepest since the 1930s. Afterward, we expect a recovery to gradually build momentum. Many of the hardest-hit sectors, including housing, financial services and commercial real estate, will take longer to recover to historically healthy levels, but the recovery will eventually reach every corner of the economy.
Florida faces an even more difficult road to recovery. The Sunshine State went into recession a full nine months ahead of the nation, and excesses in housing and commercial real estate are considerably worse than the nation as a whole. Nonfarm employment is on pace to decline by nearly nine percent peak-to-trough, producing an aggregate loss of close to 720,000 jobs, including a net loss of 430,000 jobs this year. The unemployment rate is expected to top out at around 11 percent and would rise even further if not for the significant out-migration of prime working-age adults to neighboring states and Texas.
Housing Remains Front and Center
The housing bust is clearly Florida’s largest immediate problem. Single-family housing is extremely overbuilt, particularly along Florida’s central Atlantic coast, in southwestern Florida, in central Florida, in the outlying areas around Orlando and in many other of the outlying areas around the state’s other major employment centers. Permits for new single-family homes have tumbled 90 percent from their peaks nearly four years ago and the inventory of vacant, developed lots remains excessive throughout much of the state. Condominium development also got considerably out of balance, with far too many high-end units built in Miami, the Florida panhandle and many other metropolitan areas.
Published on
Fri, Jun 12 2009, 08:05 GMT

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Pennsylvania Outlook
Fri, Jun 5 2009, 06:22 GMT
by Jay Bryson, Tim Quinlan
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Executive Summary
Pennsylvania is relatively more dependent on manufacturing activity than the nation at large, and strong growth in exports helped to support the economy in the state through the middle of last year. However, the global recession and the sharp decline in capital spending among American businesses have hit Pennsylvania’s manufacturers very hard since last autumn. Most cities in the Keystone State have seen their unemployment rates spike up sharply in recent months. Unlike the deep recession of the early 1980s, however, the state’s unemployment rate has managed to remain below the overall national rate thus far into the current downturn.
Due to proximity to major metropolitan areas, some areas of the state, notably the Lehigh Valley, Reading and York experienced decent increases in house prices in the middle years of the decade. That said, house prices in Pennsylvania generally did not become overly inflated. Although house prices are now starting to decline in most Pennsylvania cities, the state has escaped the horrors of the housing bust that has ravaged states such as Arizona, California and Florida. Everything else equal, personal wealth in Pennsylvania hasn’t been hit as hard as many other parts of the country.
The population of Pennsylvania is among the oldest in the nation, and population growth in the Keystone State has lagged well below the overall national rate for decades. If the trend of relatively slow population growth continues, long-run economic growth in Pennsylvania likely will fall short of the overall national rate.
Economic Activity in Pennsylvania Has Deteriorated Rapidly
Pennsylvania’s economy was performing reasonably well last year at this time. The Keystone State never experienced much of a housing boom in the earlier years of this decade, at least not by the standards of Arizona, California and Florida, so the fallout from the subsequent housing bust had a limited effect on Pennsylvania. In addition, many parts of the state, especially the counties that are far removed from the major metro centers of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, are more dependent on manufacturing than is the overall national economy.1 The sharp rise in exports through the first half of 2008, which was driven by strong growth in the rest of the world and the weak dollar, helped to keep the good times rolling in Pennsylvania even though many other states were struggling (Figure 1).
However, the wheels have come off Pennsylvania’s economy over the past few quarters. Employment started to contract sharply at the end of 2008, and the downturn in nonfarm payrolls has continued this year (Figure 2). Consequently, unemployment in the state has shot up to a rate that was last seen in the early 1990s (Figure 3). Although the labor market in the Keystone State has not deteriorated as much as the overall national jobs market, Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate probably will continue to climb throughout the rest of this year and possibly into 2010.
Published on
Fri, Jun 5 2009, 06:22 GMT

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North Carolina Outlook
Thu, Apr 30 2009, 09:54 GMT
by Adam York, John Silvia
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Momentum Slows in the Tar Heel State
Twin forces of structural and cyclical adjustment have stalled economic momentum in North Carolina. For the last twenty years the state has been evolving toward a trade, transportation and professional services economy. Such evolution has been stalled, but not stopped.
Manufacturing Base: Evolving Toward Higher Value Added
For some time higher value-added manufacturing—transportation goods for example—has been comprising a greater share of North Carolina's manufacturing base. Unfortunately, many of the jobs in manufacturing that provide a living are mid-skill level jobs that are increasingly under pressure. Over the last two years, and for the forecast period ahead, we expect further job losses in this sector. This will put downward pressure on income growth and consumer spending in the year ahead.
Published on
Thu, Apr 30 2009, 09:54 GMT

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USA − State Employment: December 2008
Thu, Jan 29 2009, 08:46 GMT
by Adam York, Mark Vitner
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
The national economic collapse has hit the labor market hard over the last few months. While revised figures will not be out until the end of next week, it has become quite clear that 2008 will be one of the worst years for the labor market in quite some time. The fourth quarter turned out to be the worst quarter for job losses (more than 1.5 million) across the nation since the aftermath of World War II. As a result of the massive job losses and continued gains in population the unemployment rate has soared nationwide, up 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2007.
Published on
Thu, Jan 29 2009, 08:46 GMT

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Florida's Labor Market Takes it on the Chin
Mon, Jan 26 2009, 11:31 GMT
by Adam York, Mark Vitner
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Job Losses Top a Quarter Million in 2008
Florida’s economy continues to lose momentum, as more than a quarter million jobs were lost in 2008 and the unemployment rate surged to its highest level in more than 16 years. The state’s unemployment rate rose 0.7 percentage points in December and now sits at 8.1 percent. Nearly 340,000 people have been added to the Sunshine State’s unemployment roles during the past year, reflecting the ongoing fallout from the housing bust and the deteriorating situation in the overall U.S. economy.
Nonfarm employment has fallen 3.2 percent over the past year, producing a net loss of 255,200 jobs. While construction and manufacturing continue to account for the largest proportion of job losses, layoffs are evident in nearly every industry. Moreover, the pace of job losses has accelerated in recent months and layoffs are much more broadly based today than in any other time in the past quarter-century. The current recession looks as though it will eclipse the 1973-75 downturn, which was by far the worst recession for Florida in the modern era.
Published on
Mon, Jan 26 2009, 11:31 GMT
Archive
- New Jersey Outlook
Published On Wed, Jul 1 2009, 09:50 GMT
- Florida Economic Outlook
Published On Fri, Jun 12 2009, 08:05 GMT
- Pennsylvania Outlook
Published On Fri, Jun 5 2009, 06:22 GMT
- North Carolina Outlook
Published On Thu, Apr 30 2009, 09:54 GMT
- USA - State Employment: December 2008
Published On Thu, Jan 29 2009, 08:46 GMT
[ View All ]
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
| P.O. Box 025383 Miami, FL 33102-5383
https://www.wellsfargo.com/ | sam.bullard@wachovia.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks.
If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets.
Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues
The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement.
Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account.
Fast Markets
A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system.
In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors.
Potential Risks in a Fast Market
"Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate
Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive.
Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead
In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading.
Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile
IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price.
Large Orders in Fast Markets
Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5.
In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees.
This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted.
Online Trading and Duplicate Orders
Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed.
Limit Orders Can Limit Risk
A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected.
Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets
During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent.
Freeriding is Prohibited
Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security.
Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days.
Stop and Stop Limit Orders
A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better.
Glossary
All or None (AON)
A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed.
Day Order
A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session.
Fill or Kill
An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled.
Good Til Canceled (GTC)
An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order).
Immediate or Cancel
An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled.
Limit Order
An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases).
Maintenance Call
A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity.
Margin Requirement
Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales.
Market Makers
NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds.
Market Order
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace.
Specialists
Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy.
Stop
An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price.
Stop Limit
An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order.
These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
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