Greek crisisThis may just be the eye of the storm, but it appears that the markets have changed their mind, at least for the time being, about what at first was widely viewed as only a vague political commitment by the European Union to help Greece "if needed" with its enormous debt burden.

The euro's free fall versus the dollar to reach an eight-month low on February 12 has so far been halted, and the euro/dollar pair even managed to rally upwards to a two-week high after a meeting of EU finance ministers came to a close on February 16 leaving Greece with a long to-do list to get its house in order over the coming months.

Even so, debt concerns over Greece and other EU members such as Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy have not gone away and point to a long-term problem for the Euro-Zone's common currency.

At first glance, it may seem contradictory, but the euro has received some relief despite the fact that the EU did not come to Greece's immediate rescue with a bailout package. Instead, the Hellenic Republic has been left to clean up its own mess with the European Central Bank looking over its shoulder.

However, to complement this tough-love strategy, EU leaders have made repeated pledges to help Greece if it can not steady the bond markets with its own austerity plans.

Investors have been somewhat tamed at the present moment by the EU's double-tier plan of forcing Athens to do what it takes combined with the possibility of a back-up plan in the form of some financial help coming from Brussels if need be. The logic may lie in the fact that an immediate bail-out plan would only spread the bad debt to other EU countries and set a precedent to help other debt-plagued Euro-Zone members, a scenario which would arguably cause more harm to the common currency and the Euro-Zone in the long run.

The finance ministers issued a statement saying that Greece will have to "implement specific budgetary consolidation measures, including those presented in its stability programme".

Greece's first deadline is March 16 when it will have show it has established a schedule for implementing measures to get its 12.7% deficit down to an acceptable 3.0% by 2012.

After that, the finance ministers said the Mediterranean nation will have to take "urgent measures [...] by 15 May 2010; supporting measures to safeguard budgetary targets for 2010; other measures to be adopted by the end of 2010; and other measures to be adopted by 2012" including "specific measures covering wages, pension reform, healthcare reforms, public administrations [...] and employment growth."

After suffering a massive free fall versus the US dollar, the euro has only begun to show signs of treading water as a possible bailout coming from Europe has somewhat calmed the market. Nevertheless, the euro's value has taken a serious blow and its mid- to long-term health is hanging in the balance, subject to how the EU and Greece deal with the toughest challenge the Euro-Zone has yet to face.

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Analysts Comments

  • Paul De Grauwe, Professor of Economics at Leuven University:
    "The role of Greece can be summarised in just a few sentences. Mismanagement and deception by the Greek authorities made the crisis possible. The Greek government now struggles with a huge credibility problem, which makes the resolution of the crisis difficult, because “nobody trusts these guys anymore”. Any announcement by the Greek government about its intention to redress the budgetary situation will be met by great scepticism for years to come." - Business Spectator
  • Henrik R Clausen, analyst at EuropeNews:
    "Since the other eurozone leaders are setting the rules, no credible threat of kicking Greece from the euro will be made. The expediency of lenience can be expected to dominate over strict consequences, the money supply of the euro will be permitted to expand, and the fundamental problems of competitiveness and mounting tension will remain, all while the eurozone economies will continue to falter." - EuropeNews
  • Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize-winning economist:
    "No, the real story behind the euromess lies not in the profligacy of politicians but in the arrogance of elites — specifically, the policy elites who pushed Europe into adopting a single currency well before the continent was ready for such an experiment." - NY Times
  • Anatole Kaletsky, commentator at The Times:
    "The single currency will survive this test. And if the conditions that it faces in the Club Med countries continue to deteriorate, the euro’s near-death experience will, if anything, accelerate the march towards a fully federalist United States of Europe." - Times Online
  • Larry Elliott, economics editor at The Guardian:
    "Greece would dearly love taxpayers in the rest of Europe to help shoulder the burden of adjustment, but it is not going to happen. Fiscal autonomy means Greece is on its own." - The Guardian