http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-11-13.htmlRecent market developments Although economic data are no longer surprising as strongly on the upside as previously, they have generally pointed towards continued recovery in the world economy and accelerating growth rates towards the end of the year, as witnessed by the strong reporting season. Equity prices have almost rebounded to their 2009 highs, following a negative correction a couple of weeks ago. The recovery in credit markets has lost momentum, but this is not a matter of concern,Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:49:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-11-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-10-15.v02.htmlRecent market developments  Although economic data has been more mixed of lately the picture have on balance continued to improve. In the financial markets equity markets have reached new year-highs and a credit and money markets have improved further. Even so, bond yields have continued to drift lower on a mix of unusual conditions. Firstly, central banks remain very dovish and does not signal any imminent rate hikes. Secondly, although there are signs, that the recovery has got moreThu, 15 Oct 2009 21:15:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-10-15.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-09-15.htmlRecent market developments Despite the continuing stream of good economic news, yields have continued to fall in the past month. There are three main reasons: 1. Central bank rhetoric remains very soft, and certainly does not signal imminent interest rate hikes at the moment. 2. It is the “wrong” economic data that are surprising. Many still have the opinion that the current economic recovery will not lead to a sustained upswing – and as long as there is no decent growth in US jobs andTue, 15 Sep 2009 13:10:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-08-14.htmlRecent market developments Yields have climbed over the summer months after falling in the latter half of June and they are now running close to their 2009 highs. Economic data have continued to surprise on the upside and a number of major European economies, as well as the US, have now put the recession behind them. Meanwhile, the financial markets have continued to recover. Stock markets have surged to record highs for 2009 and credit spreads in many markets have narrowed to levels seenFri, 14 Aug 2009 14:23:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-08-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-06-15.htmlRecent market developments Long yields in both the US and Germany have moved up sharply over the past month. Economic news has surprised on the upside, and it is becoming increasingly evident that the worst of the economic downturn is probably behind us. Meanwhile, stock markets have risen and so has risk appetite on financial markets. Most recently, there has been speculation about potential rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) over the coming quarters. The market currently expects theMon, 15 Jun 2009 12:46:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-06-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-05-15.htmlRecent market developments Long yields in both the US and Germany have moved upward over the past month. Economic news has been encouraging, with clear bright spots – especially in Asia, but also in the US and the eurozone. We may have put the worst of the economic downturn behind us. Meanwhile, stock markets have increased, so the failure of the Federal Reserve to announce any new measures at its latest policy meeting prepared the ground for higher yields. US long yields are now running wellFri, 15 May 2009 10:28:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-05-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-04-15.htmlRecent market developments Long yields in both the US and Germany are more or less unchanged from a month ago, but they have certainly not been stable during the past month. The US central bank, the Fed, prompted a sharp downturn in yields when it announced, at its policy meeting on 18 March, that it would be buying Treasuries. However, US long yields have almost recouped the lost ground since then on a combination of good economic news, positive statements from the financial industry,Wed, 15 Apr 2009 12:10:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-04-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-03-13.htmlRecent market developments: US long-term yields are broadly unchanged from last month, while yields in the eurozone have declined. Renewed fears about the difficulties facing the financial industry and, not least, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have further dented risk appetite. In US fixed income markets, this has been offset by concern about the very large supply of Treasuries. Meanwhile, the ECB has continued easing monetary policy in the eurozone, which, together with the eurozone'sFri, 13 Mar 2009 10:58:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-03-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-02-13.htmlRecent market developments: Sentiment has changed in the direction of higher rates and yields in recent weeks. The main reasons are (1) the weakening of leading economic indicators has ended; (2) fiscal policies are very expansionary - not least, in the US; (3) a massive supply of government bonds is on the cards; and (4) the Federal Reserve did not step up its quantitative easing measures at the January policy meeting. The last point was broadly viewed as the Fed's implicit acceptance ofFri, 13 Feb 2009 15:28:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-02-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-01-16.htmlLatest market developments : After a brief period of post-Christmas cheer, gloom has once again de-scended on equity markets. This together with a steady stream of bad news and falling inflation has sent both US and European yields down once more. Macro outlook : The US economy is still in free-fall. The breakdown of the credit market, tumbling equities and still falling house prices combined with rapidly rising unemployment have send the economy spiralling down. GDP fell sharply in Q4 08, andFri, 16 Jan 2009 09:51:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2009-01-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-12-15.htmlLatest market developments : The slide in both US and European yields has continued in the past month, although Euroland yields have mostly moved sideways in recent weeks. The decline comes in the wake of rapid deterioration in economic news, mounting credit problems and plummeting inflation. Day-to-day fluctuations remain extreme, and at the long end of the curve in particular uncertainty is high. Macro outlook: The US economy is currently in sharp recession. The growing credit crisis andMon, 15 Dec 2008 10:14:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-12-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-11-21.htmlLatest market developments: Given the very bleak economic news lately, we have decided to revise our forecast for the ECB, which is now expected to ease more aggressively in the coming months (see Flash Comment Euroland: Very weak PMI should spur ECB to cut rates dramatically). This also means new esti-mates for long yields. Movements on the equity market often set the agenda for the fixed income market, and the combination of falling equity prices and bleak economic news has added extraFri, 21 Nov 2008 15:21:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-11-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-11-14.htmlLatest market developments: The nature of the crisis has changed from fears of a systemic financial col-lapse to concern about a global recession. Yields have continued plummeting, and monetary policy has been eased. The economic outlook is bleak, with both the US and euro-zone economies mired in recession. Stock market fluctuations often set the agenda for fixed income markets at the moment. Macro outlook: The US economy has been hit by a sharp tightening of credit to both households andFri, 14 Nov 2008 09:26:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-11-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-10-15.htmlLatest market developments: Western governments have effected major rescue actions in recent weeks to ease the credit crisis and stabilise the markets. Signs are already emerging that the measures are having the desired effect, and we expect to see a significant improvement in the money and credit mar-kets in the coming months. Despite this, a recession in Europe and US now seems unavoidable, in our view. Together with the sharp fall in commodity prices, this will open the door to furtherWed, 15 Oct 2008 09:35:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-09-15.htmlRecent market developments: The financial market crisis has flared up again. Last week, the US govern-ment had to bail out mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the large US investment banks are in deep trouble. The economic outlook is still very gloomy, though the price of oil has fallen significantly. Consequently, yields have generally declined during the past week. However, market expectations on euro-zone monetary policy have remained more or less unchanged owing to the ECB'sMon, 15 Sep 2008 09:00:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-08-15.htmlRecent market developments: Over the past month, focus in the bond markets has turned from inflationary fears to concerns about the growth outlook, as commodity prices have declined and Euroland data have been surprisingly weak. Even though risk appetite has improved of late, financial markets remain fragile, and the flow of reported credit losses and write downs has continued. Going forward, high uncertainty remains attached to the oil price and the health of the financial sector. MacroFri, 15 Aug 2008 09:15:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-08-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-07-04.htmlMacro outlook • Inflation fears and financial fears are still battling for the leader’s jersey in the financial markets. Financial fears have been in the lead in recent weeks: equities have tumbled and credit spreads have widened as risk appetite has waned. This has boosted demand for government bonds. Short yields have fallen in both the US and in Euroland since the start of June. However, inflation fears could easily regain the lead if oil prices continue to rise. Hence, uncertainty is high.Fri, 04 Jul 2008 13:39:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-07-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-04-01.htmlMacro outlook • The economic outlook is still very gloomy, with the US on the brink of a recession. The housing market correction is far from over, the credit crisis means credit conditions will keep tightening, stock markets have fallen and the surge in food and energy prices has driven inflation to a high level. Also, labour mar-ket dynamics have turned around and unemployment is rising. Consumer spending is having a rough time at the moment, and GDP growth is set to be modest in the comingTue, 01 Apr 2008 12:50:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-04-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-03-03.htmlMacro outlook • The jury is still out on the recession / no recession question in the US, but there is little doubt that the outlook remains grim and the risks of a serious slowdown are high. The US consumer is under siege, tak-ing hits left and right. Se Research USA: US: Consumers under siege for more on the US consumer. • Inflation is surging on the back of higher energy, commodity and food prices. This is eating away at dis-posable income. Employment growth has ground to a halt andMon, 03 Mar 2008 13:34:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-03-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-02-04.htmlMacro outlook • Weaker growth and strong headwinds are on the cards in the US for the coming three to six months. High inflation stemming from higher energy and food prices is eroding purchasing power and hurting consumption. Credit is being tightened and the house market remains in a free fall with no bottom in sight. In spite of the recent rebound in ISM, we believe the industrial cycle has turned and ISM going to edge lower. The labour market outlook has deteriorated and unemployment is onMon, 04 Feb 2008 10:43:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/new-yield-forecasts/2008-02-04.html