http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2012-02-08.htmlU.S. Overview Domestic Expansion in the Face of Global Risks Real economic growth of 2 to 2.5 percent, with moderate inflation, characterizes the expansion as has been the story for some time. One result of this outlook is our expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue with its low federal fund rate benchmark for this year. Long-term benchmark rates are expected to rise, as the risk-on trade increases with fewer expectations for a double-dip recession in the United States and aWed, 08 Feb 2012 10:09:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2012-02-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2012-01-11.htmlU.S. Overview After Years of Hard Work, a Better U.S. Outlook As we transition into 2012, our growth outlook reflects more of the same for the year ahead. We expect the economy to expand at around 2.1 percent for the year ahead driven by many of its components as opposed to a major contribution from one segment. Consumer spending should continue to add to economic growth as real income gains benefit from slower inflation and steady gains in employment. Business fixed investment most likelyWed, 11 Jan 2012 09:15:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2012-01-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-11-09.htmlU.S. Overview Strong Headwinds Remain in Place Fears about a double-dip recession have given way to the begrudging realization that economic growth will remain sluggish for quite some time. Growth in the fourth quarter appears to be on pace to match the third quarter's 2.5 percent pace, with solid gains in consumer spending and business fixed investment. Moreover, the recent slowdown in business inventory growth should provide some downside protection to the manufacturing sector and mayWed, 09 Nov 2011 08:48:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-10-12.htmlUS Overview Slow Sailing Through a Narrow Passage Neither recession nor boom, but a disappointing middling growth outlook demands that investors and decision makers choose economic policies carefully. This theme has been our view since early this year and we realize that such is very unsatisfying relative to the experience of prior business cycles. Hiring continues to be cautious, orders have continued to slow. In addition, profit growth will continue to decelerate as real final sales alsoWed, 12 Oct 2011 08:43:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-09-07.htmlUS Overview  Same Song—Just Another Verse Neither recession nor boom, but a disappointing middling growth outlook demands that investors and decision makers choose economic policies carefully. Hiring will be cautious, orders will be slow. Profit growth will be constrained. Our outlook remains for moderate, subpar growth accompanied by modest inflation pressures and no change in the Federal Reserve policy on the federal funds rate. For the next six months we anticipate growth will reflectWed, 07 Sep 2011 08:45:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-09-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-08-10.htmlUS Overview  Repetition not Repudiation: The MacGyver Economy We share your frustration, but our outlook remains for moderate, subpar growth accompanied by rising inflation pressures and no change in Federal Reserve policy on the federal funds rate. Within this environment, growth is expected to continue to generate opportunity in modest consumer spending, gains in equipment and software spending and modest improvement in residential construction (remodeling). It is neither recession norWed, 10 Aug 2011 08:19:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-08-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-07-13.htmlUS Overview  “Nuts”   That was General Anthony McAuliffe’s much celebrated response to the German commander’s request for the surrender of Bastogne during the Battle of the Bulge. Today, the U.S. economy appears to be surrounded and unable to break out through the enemy lines. Slow job growth, high energy prices, fiscal policy uncertainty here and in Europe and the end, at least temporarily, of monetary policy stimulus: Where will the economy find opportunity? Our outlookWed, 13 Jul 2011 08:28:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-07-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-06-09.htmlU.S. Overview Growth Disappoints in Q2, Better Q3 Higher gas prices, severe weather events and Japanese supply chain disruptions appear to have had a substantial negative impact on growth in the short run. Payroll growth has also moderated so far in the current period, while the unemployment rate has reversed course and ticked back up to more than 9 percent. Due to these concerns, consumer confidence and spending has also pulled back. Even the singular point of strength in this recovery,Thu, 09 Jun 2011 08:28:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-06-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-05-11.htmlU.S. Overview Private Final Demand Is Robust, Despite Slow Start Economic activity remains stuck in low gear, with real GDP climbing at just a 1.8 percent pace in the first quarter and expected to grow at just a 2.0 percent pace in the current quarter. Overall growth continues to be restrained by cutbacks in government spending as well as the ongoing struggles in the housing market. The fallout from the Japanese earthquake is also expected to restrain output in the near term as parts shortagesWed, 11 May 2011 08:03:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-05-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-04-06.htmlU.S. Overview Global Turmoil Cuts into First-Half Economic Growth Our forecast for economic growth during the first half of 2011 has been scaled back significantly, reflecting weaker data on consumer spending and business investment as well as a widening trade deficit. Real GDP growth in the first quarter is now expected to be just 2.0 percent and second-quarter growth is pegged at 2.3 percent. The slower pace reflects sharply higher gasoline prices and the toll those higher prices are takingWed, 06 Apr 2011 12:12:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-04-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-03-09.htmlU.S. Overview Hopes and Concerns Equally Increase Good news on the employment front has been tempered somewhat by the increased uncertainty emanating out of the Middle East and North Africa and the recent spike in oil prices. Declining weekly first-time unemployment claims have finally been matched by increased hiring. The magnitude and breadth of the increase combined with improvement in a whole host of leading indicators suggests the healthier hiring trend will continue, helping to generateWed, 09 Mar 2011 08:52:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-03-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-02-09.htmlU.S. Overview Sustained Growth, but Not Without Some Risks Domestic demand continues to flow from better consumer spending, solid equipment and software spending and a turnaround in nonresidential construction. This is our traditional cyclical recovery. What continues to distinguish this recovery is the weakness in residential construction and municipal government spending. These are our structural impediments. In this way, we can see how one could characterize this period as a period ofWed, 09 Feb 2011 09:06:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-02-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-01-12.htmlU.S. Overview Improving in Fits and Starts The optimism that swept through the financial markets late last year has been tapered a bit by the realization that job growth remains sluggish and housing is still years away from a meaningful recovery. The strong start to the holiday shopping season also appears to have given way toward the end of the season and a series of winter storms likely took an additional toll on consumer spending in early 2011. Exports and business fixed investment remainWed, 12 Jan 2011 12:59:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2011-01-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-11-10.htmlU.S. Overview The Economy Picks Up Steam Economic recovery is again proving surprisingly resilient and has disappointed pessimists as growth expectations have improved. Better ISM reports and stronger-than-expected employment gains in October, along with upward revisions to previously published data, suggest income and spending should hold up well going into the key holiday shopping season and the New Year. Moreover, export data from the ISM report shows export demand strengthening, whichWed, 10 Nov 2010 11:34:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-11-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-10-13.htmlU.S. Overview The WYSIWYG Economy You are entering the no-hype zone: What You See Is What You Get (WYSIWYG). There is no double-dip or V-shaped recovery. Every economic recovery is a new-normal—the 1960s were very different than the 1970s, the 1970s were very different than the 1980s, and so on... The new normal is not anything new—it happens every economic cycle. In contrast, what we see is what we have to deal with: moderate economic growth, fiscal deficits, low inflation and a central bankWed, 13 Oct 2010 08:06:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-09-08.htmlU.S. Overview Fears of a Double Dip Subside The U.S. economy is proving more resilient than many had feared, even following the massive downward revision to second-quarter real GDP to just a 1.6 percent pace. Worries that real GDP growth would slow even further and possibly slip into negative territory have subsided now that much of the July and early August data show modest economic gains. Moreover, private final demand actually looks a bit stronger and should grow enough to offset theWed, 08 Sep 2010 17:30:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-09-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-08-11.htmlU.S. Overview Economic Outlook: The No-Hype Forecast Our outlook has no double-dip, no V-shaped recovery, no hyper-inflation in response to the Fed’s enlarged balance sheet, and no deflation in response to the Fed’s failure to increase the balance sheet even more. Instead, our outlook is for moderate, subpar growth during the second half of this year, low inflation and steady short-term interest rates. Such an outlook remains a challenge to public and private decision-makers. There is no “easyWed, 11 Aug 2010 12:17:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-08-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-07-07.htmlU.S. Overview Slower Growth but No Double-Dip The wave of disappointing economic reports this past month combined with the inability of the Administration to push additional stimulus through an election-wary Congress has reawakened fears about a double-dip. We continue to believe such fears are overblown. We remain concerned that so much stimulus is ending in such a short period of time but expect growth to continue. Real GDP is expected to rise at a 1.6 percent pace in the third quarter andWed, 07 Jul 2010 21:33:59 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-07-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-06-09.htmlU.S. Overview Second-Half Slowdown or Something More Sinister? Our forecast continues to incorporate a significant slowdown during the second half of the year. After likely expanding at a 3.4 percent pace during the current quarter, real GDP is expected to slow to a mere 2 percent pace during the second half of 2010. Conditions over the past month have reinforced our view. Indeed, the financial markets are providing a clear signal that there is danger ahead on the road to recovery. The tragicWed, 09 Jun 2010 07:44:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-06-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-05-12.htmlU.S. Overview U.S. Economy Continues to Chug Along, for Now Most major economic indicators, including employment, retail sales and industrial production, improved notably over the past month, which raises the upside risks to our forecast. We continue to believe economic growth will moderate during the second half of the year, as the boost from inventory restocking fades and various stimulus programs wind down. Consumer spending may also be poised for a bit of a correction, as recent gains haveWed, 12 May 2010 12:28:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-05-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-04-07.htmlU.S. Overview The Recovery Begins to Take Shape Nonfarm employment finally moved back into positive territory in a convincing manner in March, further bolstering the view that a sustainable recovery has taken hold. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 jobs and manufacturing employment rose for the third straight month. The March employment report provides some key insights into how the economic recovery will likely unfold. Manufacturing is playing a larger role, as firms begin to rebuildWed, 07 Apr 2010 12:10:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-04-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-03-10.htmlU.S. Overview The Recovery Looks More Durable But Not Stronger Recent economic reports have cast doubts about the strength and durability of the recovery. Many concerns center on disappointing reports from the nation’s beleaguered housing sector, which has seen home sales tumble following a spurt fueled by the tax incentives. Sales of new and existing homes have fallen sharply in recent months, and pending home sales data suggest sales weakened further in February. While data on the housingWed, 10 Mar 2010 09:15:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-03-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-02-10.htmlU.S. Overview Growth Is Not Nearly as Strong Beneath the Surface Expectations for near-term growth have been ratcheted up, following the fourth quarter’s robust 5.7 percent real GDP growth. While that number came in almost precisely in line with our forecast, we have raised our estimate for first quarter growth and slightly reduced our expectations for growth during the second and third quarters. The adjustments were necessary because inventories are correcting much more quickly thanWed, 10 Feb 2010 09:30:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-02-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-01-13.htmlU.S. Overview A Five-Handle for Fourth Quarter Real GDP? Our estimate for fourth quarter real GDP has been raised significantly as a result of October and November’s stronger inventory numbers. We are still expecting a $20 billion drop in inventories, so there is some upside risk. The slower pace of inventory liquidations is expected to add around 4 percentage points to real GDP growth during the fourth quarter, which should send the headline GDP number up at a 5.6 percent pace. Fourth quarterWed, 13 Jan 2010 10:02:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2010-01-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-11-11.htmlU.S. Overview The Recovery Shapes up but not Quite as Expected The return of economic growth during the third quarter has done little to quell the debate among economic forecasters as to what letter the economic recovery will most likely resemble. Will it be a U, V, L, W or some exotic letter from a language long gone? Our vote is for a little v, with most of the rebound in year-to-year real GDP growth occurring below the zero line. We are not expecting a double dip but do expect growth toWed, 11 Nov 2009 16:54:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-10-07.htmlU.S. Overview “The Recovery Will Be Agonizingly Slow” So it indeed has been. As this short quote from the Executive Summary of our 2009 Annual Outlook (published in December 2008) neatly summarized, the economic recovery faces a number of secular challenges that will alter the pace and composition of growth. For many decision-makers, the outlook for 2010 suggests continued change and adjustment to an altered reality of more government/less private sector contributions to growth, greaterWed, 07 Oct 2009 07:26:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-09-09.htmlU.S. Overview The Recovery Will Take Time to Build Momentum Forecasts for economic growth during the second half of this year and 2010 have been steadily ratcheted up as most of the monthly economic indicators have come in better than expected. We have raised our own estimate modestly. We now see real GDP rising at a 3.7 percent annual rate, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than one month ago. Estimates for real GDP growth during the fourth quarter and 2010 are essentially the same asWed, 09 Sep 2009 09:06:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-09-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-08-12.htmlU.S. Overview The Recovery Is Beginning to Take Shape We believe the recession ended around the middle of this year and that a recovery has begun to take hold. Real GDP is expected to rise at a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter and average a 3.0 percent pace for the second half of this year. The improved outlook reflects recent revisions to the underlying GDP data and a sharp reduction in inventories. The initial success of the cash for clunkers trade-in program has also bolstered ourWed, 12 Aug 2009 11:50:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-08-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-07-08.htmlU.S. Overview Not Out of the Woods Yet Optimism about the apparent ending of the recession has been tempered by the reality of substantial further deterioration in employment conditions and ongoing struggles with state and local government budgets. Real GDP is expected to rise slightly during the third quarter as inventory liquidations slow dramatically and consumer spending is revived. The ending of the recession, however, does not mark the end of the economy’s troubles. Economic activityWed, 08 Jul 2009 07:07:10 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-07-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-06-10.htmlU.S. Overview Despite Severe Headwinds, a Recovery is Near Our forecast incorporates the improved tone of recent economic reports as well as the anticipated bounce-back in motor vehicle production from the current severely depressed levels in the third quarter. We now expect third quarter GDP to be solidly positive, which means the recession will likely end this summer. While the recession may be finally coming to an end, significant challenges remain. The housing bust is still playing out,Wed, 10 Jun 2009 06:52:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-06-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-05-13.htmlU.S. Overview Economic Recovery: Unusual Shape, Unusual Style Despite the volatility of monthly economic releases and policy prescriptions, surprisingly little in the outlook has deviated from the pattern of the recovery as outlined in our annual outlook published last December. Economic recovery is expected to start later this year. Weakness in consumer spending has begun to give way to gradual improvement. Business spending continues to decline. Housing remains weak. A significant inventoryWed, 13 May 2009 10:24:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-05-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-04-08.htmlU.S. Overview Recovery is in the Mind of the Beholder We continue to expect the economic recovery to start late this year. Yet we see the recovery as being different in both character (less diversified) and strength (weaker) relative to past recoveries. Therefore, we believe the recovery will be disappointing to both citizens and policymakers. Such disappointment means more difficult decisions in the next three years. Economics is the science of choices and tradeoffs. Our outlook suggests thatWed, 08 Apr 2009 07:46:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-04-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-03-11.htmlU.S. Overview Yes We Can Recover! We continue to believe the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 will mark the darkest hours of this recession. Output, employment and consumer spending will likely remain under pressure for all of this year and possibly into the early part of next year. The recession will eventually end and we see the bottom occurring in either the fourth quarter of 2009 or first quarter of 2010. The end of the recession, however, will not mark the end of theWed, 11 Mar 2009 17:44:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-03-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-02-13.htmlU.S. Overview We Have Seen This Movie Before Throughout this financial crisis there have been endless comparisons between today’s environment and the 1930s. We feel a more apt comparison is the deep 1973-75 recession, a period that also dealt with an oil price shock, a housing collapse and a banking crisis. Even then these problems were global, with housing slumping not only in America but in Europe and parts of the developing world. The early 1970s economic and geopolitical environment wasFri, 13 Feb 2009 10:57:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-02-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-01-14.htmlU.S. Overview Worst May be Over, but We Have Long Way to Go Real economic activity fell off a cliff during the fourth quarter, producing a sharp drop in employment, output and spending. More than 1.5 million jobs were lost during the period and total hours worked plummeted at a 7.7 percent annual rate. Real GDP did not likely decline that much, as faltering demand in the U.S. cut demand for imports and thus exported a good part of U.S. weakness. We currently expect real GDP to decline at a 5.3Wed, 14 Jan 2009 09:28:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2009-01-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-11-13.htmlU.S. Overview A Serious Recession Has Set In While the NBER will not likely get around to declaring when a recession began until late January or early February, there is little doubt a serious recession has set in. Real GDP declined at a modest 0.3 percent pace in the third quarter and more recent data have been decidedly more negative. Nonfarm payrolls fell 240,000 in October, following a much larger-than-initially-reported 279,000 job loss in September. Not only has the pace of economicThu, 13 Nov 2008 08:11:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-11-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-10-09.htmlU.S. Overview The Only Certainty Today Is Uncertainty The incredible volatility in the financial markets is not only dominating the headlines but also dramatically reshaping the economic outlook. Capital is much harder to come by today for even the strongest of credits and this is already having a debilitating impact on consumer spending, business fixed investment and employment. Our near-term forecast has been slashed and a recession is now underway. We expect three consecutive quarters ofThu, 09 Oct 2008 09:12:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-10-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-09-10.htmlU.S. Overview The next few quarters will be the most trying time for the U.S. economy in the past two decades. Our forecast has real GDP rising at a 1.9 percent pace over the next year and real final sales to domestic purchasers rising at just a 0.6 percent pace. Conditions will feel even weaker than this. Overall consumer spending is expected to decline in both the third and fourth quarters, while spending on goods should drop in three of the next four quarters. Consumer spending is beingWed, 10 Sep 2008 10:08:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-09-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-08-06.htmlU.S. Overview Has The U.S. Come Down With German Disease? Much of the benefit from the economic stimulus checks was siphoned away by higher energy prices during the early summer months. As a result, most of the benefit from the rebate checks showed up in the May consumer spending figures. Spending weakened in June, particularly for big-ticket discretionary items. Motor vehicle sales declined even further in July, hitting their lowest level in 15 years. The net result should be an outrightWed, 06 Aug 2008 16:37:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-08-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-07-10.htmlU.S. Overview Sub-Par Growth: Economic Workout Continues Once again, we are faced with the hard reality that the economic workout continues, keeping pressure on profits and household incomes. There is no easy-out for the economy. We expect continued weakness in consumer spending, residential investment and capital spending in the second half of this year. In contrast, government spending and net exports should maintain positive momentum. Overall, our expectation is that real final sales willThu, 10 Jul 2008 08:14:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC)http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/monthly-economic-outlook/2008-07-10.html