U.S. Overview
Growth Is Not Nearly as Strong Beneath the Surface
Expectations for near-term growth have been ratcheted up, following the fourth quarter’s robust 5.7 percent real GDP growth. While that number came in almost precisely in line with our forecast, we have raised our estimate for first quarter growth and slightly reduced our expectations for growth during the second and third quarters. The adjustments were necessary because inventories are correcting much more quickly than originally thought. Inventories added 3.4 percentage points to fourth quarter GDP growth and are expected to add another 1.2 percentage points to growth during the first quarter.
Consumer spending is also packing a little more punch. Real personal consumption expenditures ended the year well above their fourth quarter average. Spending looks set to rise at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Colder than usual temperatures are boosting utility usage and an early Easter should boost goods purchases in March. Toyota’s huge recalls are expected to weigh on motor vehicle purchases during the quarter and might also add to inventories. Spending is expected to grow more modestly during the balance of the year.
Business fixed investment modestly increased in the fourth quarter, with spending on computers and related equipment posting an astonishing rise. Much of that gain was in portable devices and equipment that drives the infrastructure supporting them. Residential investment pulled back toward the end of the year, reflecting a payback from the burst in starts tied to the first-time home buyers’ tax credit.
International Overview
Sovereign Debt Concerns in Southern Europe
In response to market concerns over its indebtedness, the Greek government has proposed an ambitious fiscal adjustment plan over the next few years. In order to help stabilize the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio, however, nominal GDP growth in Greece needs to rebound. But the common currency that Greece shares with the other members of the euro area precludes strong export growth via real exchange rate depreciation, which will hamper its ability to achieve strong growth in nominal GDP. In our view, there is a significant probability that Greece will need financial support from the European Union (EU) and/or the IMF to help the government smooth out its fiscal adjustment. The fiscal situations in both Portugal and Spain are not as dire as they are in the Hellenic Republic, but these two countries may also need financial support if investors remain spooked.
The fiscal adjustment that will need to take place in Southern Europe will restrain economic growth in those countries over the next few years. Although these Mediterranean countries are not the largest economies in the euro area, they accounted for more than their share of overall GDP growth in the Euro-zone during the last expansion. Therefore, we expect that economic growth in the overall euro area likely will be sluggish as well for the foreseeable future. In our view, the combination of slow economic growth and benign inflation will lead the European Central Bank to keep its policy rate at 1.00 percent, where it has been maintained since last May, until early next year.







