Monthly Economic Outlook

24

3
A Serious Recession Has Set In
Thu, Nov 13 2008, 08:11 GMT
by Wachovia Research Team
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
U.S. Overview
A Serious Recession Has Set In
While the NBER will not likely get around to declaring when a recession began until late January or early February, there is little doubt a serious recession has set in. Real GDP declined at a modest 0.3 percent pace in the third quarter and more recent data have been decidedly more negative. Nonfarm payrolls fell 240,000 in October, following a much larger-than-initially-reported 279,000 job loss in September.
Not only has the pace of economic decline intensified but it has also broadened considerably. Both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys fell well-below their key break-even level of 50 in October. The pace of layoff announcements has also picked up, as has the list of firms announcing earnings disappointments.
While lending among banks has improved, the credit crunch is still abundantly evident virtually everywhere else. Underwriting criteria for home mortgages and consumer loans remain exceptionally tight and terms are far less generous than they have been anytime this decade. Lending for commercial real estate has all but dried up and the list of delayed and canceled projects has skyrocketed. Even state and local governments are scaling back.
We expect policymakers to continue to work to offset this weakness, with a new stimulus package; likely to be passed during the lame duck congressional session. The Federal Reserve will also likely cut the federal funds rate another half point, bringing it to 0.50 percent by early next year.
International Overview
Economic Policies Turn Expansionary
Most major economies likely experienced modest declines in real GDP in the third quarter, and recent data suggest that the pace of contraction has probably quickened in the current quarter. In response to the deteriorating economic situation, macroeconomic policy in many countries has turned expansionary. The Fed has cut rates by 425 basis points since last September, and major central banks have recently accelerated their own pace of monetary easing. For example, the Bank of England slashed rates by 150 basis points on November 6.
Fiscal policy has also turned expansionary. Not only is the U.S. government contemplating another fiscal stimulus package, but China, Germany and Japan have each announced their own stimulus programs. Although monetary easing and fiscal stimulus have shown up too late to prevent many economies from experiencing recession in the near term, expansionary policies should help to limit the severity of the looming global downturn.
Despite the gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy, the greenback continues to appreciate. The dollar’s strength reflects the recent deterioration in foreign economic fortunes. Looking forward, the dollar should continue to trend higher as major central banks cut rates more than the Federal Reserve. In addition, the significant narrowing in the U.S. current account deficit that likely will transpire will exert fewer headwinds on the dollar.
This Recession Has Quite a Bite to It
We have lowered our expectations for fourth quarter real GDP growth and scaled back our estimates for the following two years. The recession is now expected to be deeper and longer than previously thought and will likely rival the 1973-75 and 1981-82 downturns in terms of its severity and longevity. Real GDP is now expected to decline at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and is not expected to move back into positive territory until the second half of next year.
In terms of GDP, the recession does not look all that severe. Assuming the NBER dates the start in July or August, we would have three consecutive quarterly declines producing a cumulative drop in real GDP of 1.6 percent. While that is well short of the 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions, the bite is expected to be every bit as bad. Domestic demand, as measured by final sales to domestic purchasers, is expected to fall for five consecutive quarters, a cumulative drop of 2.4 percent. Even this drop, however, likely understates the severity of the downturn. Past recessions have seen significant downward revisions to the data and we expect the same this coming year.
Households and consumer-related businesses are more heavily affected by this recession than any other downturn since the 1981-82 recession. Job losses have accelerated in recent months and, with the pace of layoff announcements increasing, are expected to remain at problematic levels well into 2009. We now expect the unemployment rate to top out at 9.0 percent in late 2010, reaching a peak about a year after the recession ends.
Rising unemployment will keep a tight lid on consumer spending for the next several quarters. Spending would be reined in significantly if consumers only had to worry about the job and income prospects. Today, however, it is only one of several concerns. Declines in home prices and equity prices are expected to shave $9 trillion in household wealth over the next several quarters. Even using a conservative assumption of the wealth effect, this loss in wealth will slice more than $300 billion off of consumer outlays. As if this were not enough, consumer credit is also harder and more expensive to get today, which means many households will have to find a way to live within their means, whether they want to or not.
Residential construction will also continue to decline well into 2009. While building activity has already plummeted to near zero levels in many of the most problematic areas, national builders have recently ratcheted down starts in many markets that had been holding up well. Apartment construction also ground to a halt in October as many developments had trouble securing financing.
Commercial construction will likely be the next area to see a dramatic slowdown. An extremely large number of projects have been delayed or postponed recently, again victims of the credit crunch. Other areas of nonresidential construction also suddenly look less attractive. The slowing economy has caused many utilities to scale back plans for new power plants and lower energy prices have led to a cut in energy exploration and development.
State and local governments have seen a dramatic slowdown in revenues in recent months and many have had to cut programs and employment. Outlays are expected to decline throughout most of 2009.
We expect policymakers to remain busy. A stimulus package, including extended unemployment benefits, aid to state and local governments, and new dollars for infrastructure development should quickly make its way through the Congress. We also expect some sort of aid to be made available for the domestic automobile industry. The Federal Reserve will likely nudge interest rates lower at both their December and late January meetings.
Published on
Thu, Nov 13 2008, 08:18 GMT
Archive
- The Recovery Shapes up but not Quite as Expected
Published On Wed, Nov 11 2009, 16:54 GMT
- The Recovery Will Be Agonizingly Slow
Published On Wed, Oct 7 2009, 07:26 GMT
- The Recovery Will Take Time to Build Momentum
Published On Wed, Sep 9 2009, 09:06 GMT
- The Recovery Is Beginning to Take Shape
Published On Wed, Aug 12 2009, 11:50 GMT
- Not Out of the Woods Yet
Published On Wed, Jul 8 2009, 07:07 GMT
[ View All ]
Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
| P.O. Box 025383 Miami, FL 33102-5383
https://www.wellsfargo.com/ | sam.bullard@wachovia.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Recently, the stock market has experienced high levels of volatility. If you are thinking about participating in fast moving markets, please take the time to read the information below. Wells Fargo Investments, LLC will not be restricting trading on fast moving securities, but you should understand that there can be significant additional risks to trading in a fast market. We've tried to outline the issues so you can better understand the potential risks.
If you're unsure about the risks of a fast market and how they may affect a particular trade you've considering, you may want to place your trade through a phone agent at 1-800-TRADERS. The agent can explain the difference between market and limit orders and answer any questions you may have about trading in volatile markets.
Higher Margin Maintenance Requirements on Volatile Issues
The wide swings in intra-day trading have also necessitated higher margin maintenance requirements for certain stocks, specifically Internet, e-commerce and high-tech issues. Due to their high volatility, some of these stocks will have an initial and a maintenance requirement of up to 70%. Stocks are added to this list daily based on market conditions. Please call 1-800-TRADERS to check whether a particular stock has a higher margin maintenance requirement.
Please note: this higher margin requirement applies to both new purchases and current holdings. A change in the margin requirement for a current holding may result in a margin maintenance call on your account.
Fast Markets
A fast market is characterized by heavy trading and highly volatile prices. These markets are often the result of an imbalance of trade orders, for example: all "buys" and no "sells." Many kinds of events can trigger a fast market, for example a highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO), an important company news announcement or an analyst recommendation. Remember, fast market conditions can affect your trades regardless of whether they are placed with an agent, over the internet or on a touch tone telephone system.
In Fast Markets service response and account access times may vary due to market conditions, systems performance, and other factors.
Potential Risks in a Fast Market
"Real-time" Price Quotes May Not be Accurate
Prices and trades move so quickly in a fast market that there can be significant price differences between the quotes you receive one moment and the next. Even "real-time quotes" can be far behind what is currently happening in the market. The size of a quote, meaning the number of shares available at a particular price, may change just as quickly. A real-time quote for a fast moving stock may be more indicative of what has already occurred in the market rather than the price you will receive.
Your Execution Price and Orders Ahead
In a fast market, orders are submitted to market makers and specialists at such a rapid pace, that a backlog builds up which can create significant delays. Market makers may execute orders manually or reduce size guarantees during periods of volatility. When you place a market order, your order is executed on a first-come first-serve basis. This means if there are orders ahead of yours, those orders will be executed first. The execution of orders ahead of yours can significantly affect your execution price. Your submitted market order cannot be changed or cancelled once the stock begins trading.
Initial Public Offerings may be Volatile
IPOs for some internet, e-commerce and high tech issues may be particularly volatile as they begin to trade in the secondary market. Customers should be aware that market orders for these new public companies are executed at the current market price, not the initial offering price. Market orders are executed fully and promptly, without regard to price and in a fast market this may result in an execution significantly different from the current price quoted for that security. Using a limit order can limit your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price.
Large Orders in Fast Markets
Large orders are often filled in smaller blocks. An order for 10,000 shares will sometimes be executed in two blocks of 5,000 shares each. In a fast market, when you place an order for 10,000 shares and the real-time market quote indicates there are 15,000 shares at 5, you would expect your order to execute at 5.
In a fast market, with a backlog of orders, a real-time quote may not reflect the state of the market at the time your order is received by the market maker or specialist. Once the order is received, it is executed at the best prices available, depending on how many shares are offered at each price. Volatile markets may cause the market maker to reduce the size of guarantees.
This could result in your large order being filled in unexpected smaller blocks and at significantly different prices. For example: an order for 10,000 shares could be filled as 2,500 shares at 5 and 7,500 shares at 10, even though you received a real-time quote indicating that 15,000 shares were available at 5. In this example, the market moved significantly from the time the "real-time" market quote was received and when the order was submitted.
Online Trading and Duplicate Orders
Because fast markets can cause significant delays in the execution of a trade, you may be tempted to cancel and resubmit your order. Please consider these delays before canceling or changing your market order, and then resubmitting it. There is a chance that your order may have already been executed, but due to delays at the exchange, not yet reported. When you cancel or change and then resubmit a market order in a fast market, you run the risk of having duplicate orders executed.
Limit Orders Can Limit Risk
A limit order establishes a "buy price" at the maximum you're willing to pay, or a "sell price" at the lowest you are willing to receive. Placing limit orders instead of market orders can reduce your risk of receiving an unexpected execution price. A limit order does not guarantee your order will be executed -" however, it does guarantee you will not pay a higher price than you expected.
Telephone and Online Access During Volatile Markets
During times of high market volatility, customers may experience delays with the Wells Fargo Online Brokerage web site or longer wait times when calling 1-800-TRADERS. It is possible that losses may be suffered due to difficulty in accessing accounts due to high internet traffic or extended wait times to speak to a telephone agent.
Freeriding is Prohibited
Freeriding is when you buy a security low and sell it high, during the same trading day, but use the proceeds of its sale to pay for the original purchase of the security. There is no prohibition against day trading, however you must avoid freeriding. To avoid freeriding, the funds for the original purchase of the security must come from a source other than the sale of the security.
Freeriding violates Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board concerning the extension of credit by the broker-dealer (Wells Fargo Investments, LLC) to its customers. The penalty requires that the customer's account be frozen for 90 days.
Stop and Stop Limit Orders
A stop is an order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the stop price chosen. You are guaranteed to get an execution. For example, you place an order to buy at a stop of $50 which is above the current price of $45. If the price of the stock moves to or above the $50 stop price, the order becomes a market order and will execute at the current market price. Your trade will be executed above, below or at the $50 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A "sell stop" is very similar. You own a stock with a current market price of $70 a share. You place a sell stop at $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a market order and your trade will be executed above, below or at the $67 stop price. In a fast market, the execution price could be drastically different than the stop price.
A stop limit has two major differences from a stop order. With a stop limit, you are not guaranteed to get an execution. If you do get an execution on your trade, you are guaranteed to get your limit price or better. For example, you place an order to sell stock you own at a stop limit of $67. If the stock drops to $67 or less, the trade becomes a limit order and your trade will only be executed at $67 or better.
Glossary
All or None (AON)
A stipulation of a buy or sell order which instructs the broker to either fill the whole order or don't fill it at all; but in the latter case, don't cancel it, as the broker would if the order were filled or killed.
Day Order
A buy or sell order that automatically expires if it is not executed during that trading session.
Fill or Kill
An order placed that must immediately be filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, totally canceled.
Good Til Canceled (GTC)
An order to buy or sell which remains in effect until it is either executed or canceled (WellsTrade® accounts have set a limit of 60 days, after which we will automatically cancel the order).
Immediate or Cancel
An order condition that requires all or part of an order to be executed immediately. The part of the order that cannot be executed immediately is canceled.
Limit Order
An order to buy or sell a stated quantity of a security at a specified price or at a better price (higher for sales or lower for purchases).
Maintenance Call
A call from a broker demanding the deposit of cash or marginable securities to satisfy Regulation T requirements and/or the House Maintenance Requirement. This may happen when the customer's margin account balance falls below the minimum requirements due to market fluctuations or other activity.
Margin Requirement
Minimum amount that a client must deposit in the form of cash or eligible securities in a margin account as spelled out in Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board. Reg. T requires a minimum of $2,000 or 50% of the purchase price of eligible securities bought on margin or 50% of the proceeds of short sales.
Market Makers
NASD member firms that buy and sell NASDAQ securities, at prices they display in NASDAQ, for their own account. There are currently over 500 firms that act as NASDAQ Market Makers. One of the major differences between the NASDAQ Stock Market and other major markets in the U.S. is NASDAQ's structure of competing Market Makers. Each Market Maker competes for customer order flow by displaying buy and sell quotations for a guaranteed number of shares. Once an order is received, the Market Maker will immediately purchase for or sell from its own inventory, or seek the other side of the trade until it is executed, often in a matter of seconds.
Market Order
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a security at the best price available at the time the order is received in the trading marketplace.
Specialists
Specialist firms are those securities firms which hold seats on national securities exchanges and are charged with maintaining orderly markets in the securities in which they have exclusive franchises. They buy securities from investors who want to sell and sell when investors want to buy.
Stop
An order that becomes a market order once the security has traded through the designated stop price. Buy stops are entered above the current ask price. If the price moves to or above the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price. This price may be higher or lower than the stop price. Sell stops are entered below the current market price. If the price moves to or below the stop price, the order becomes a market order and will be executed at the current market price.
Stop Limit
An order that becomes a limit order once the security trades at the designated stop price. A stop limit order instructs a broker to buy or sell at a specific price or better, but only after a given stop price has been reached or passed. It is a combination of a stop order and a limit order.
These articles are for information and education purposes only. You will need to evaluate the merits and risks associated with relying on any information provided. Although this article may provide information relating to approaches to investing or types of securities and investments you might buy or sell, Wells Fargo and its affiliates are not providing investment recommendations, advice, or endorsements. Data have been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources; however, their accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Wells Fargo makes no warranties and bears no liability for your use of this information. The information made available to you is not intended, and should not be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice, or a legal opinion.
Related reports
Intraday Forex Technical Report - U.S. Update: Gold keeps leading by FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 16:01 GMT
Daily Market Report - Greenback is starting the new week on a soft note by Wells Fargo Investments, LLC
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 14:59 GMT
Forex Technical Report - Gold Surges as Dollar is Unable to Follow-Through to Upside by ForexHound.com
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 14:45 GMT
Forex Technical Report - Euro Up Big on Speculation U.S. Economy Will Weaken by ForexHound.com
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 14:44 GMT
Hungary: CB cut the base rate by 50bp to 6.50% by Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 14:35 GMT
fed, eurusd, china, crisis, centralbanks, interestrate, us, recession, highlighted
View All
Related content
Forex: GBP/USD rises to 1.6650 and pulls down to 1.6605
FXstreet.com | Mon, Nov 23 2009, 16:23 GMT
U.S. markets advance after buoyant housing data; Dollar, at lower levels
FXstreet.com | Mon, Nov 23 2009, 15:30 GMT
Forex: USD/JPY rises to test 89.00 after existing home sales
FXstreet.com | Mon, Nov 23 2009, 15:24 GMT
UPDATE: ECB Trichet: Govts Must Prepare For Stimulus Exit
Dow Jones | Mon, Nov 23 2009, 15:20 GMT
Dollar favoured as on better than expected existing home sales
FXstreet.com | Mon, Nov 23 2009, 15:17 GMT
fed, eurusd, china, crisis, centralbanks, interestrate, us, recession, highlighted
View All
ForexHedge » Airbus Euro’s or Boeing Dollars ?
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 15:45 GMT
Francesc’s Weblog » Pay Extra Close Attention to the Dollar
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 15:44 GMT
Chartology » Two Looks at the Short Term 15min EUR/USD
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 15:41 GMT
Tech Trading » EUR/USD Towards 1,5060
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 12:08 GMT
Francesc’s Weblog » Brown urges business leaders to accept Tobin tax
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 12:08 GMT
fed, eurusd, china, crisis, centralbanks, interestrate, us, recession, highlighted
View All
Technical analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD - Page 5 - Forex Forum - FXstreet.com
Fri, Oct 10 2008, 12:07 GMT
Yellowlion's Daily EURUSD - Page 6 - Forex Forum - FXstreet.com
Fri, Oct 10 2008, 12:07 GMT
Elliott charts with Grega H. - Page 2 - Forex Forum - FXstreet.com
Fri, Oct 10 2008, 12:05 GMT
Technical analysis for EUR/USD by AceTrader - Forex Forum - FXstreet.com
Fri, Oct 10 2008, 12:03 GMT
The technical analysis of majors - Page 3 - Forex Forum - FXstreet.com
Fri, Oct 10 2008, 12:02 GMT
fed, eurusd, china, crisis, centralbanks, interestrate, us, recession, highlighted
View All
Outlook for the major currencies this week
Ian Copsey | Tue, Sep 30 2008, 08:00 GMT
FX Instructor Live Trading Room
Mark De La Paz | Tue, Sep 30 2008, 11:00 GMT 
FX Instructor Live Trading Room
Mark De La Paz | Wed, Oct 1 2008, 09:00 GMT
Live Look at Today's Markets
Derek Frey | Wed, Oct 1 2008, 17:00 GMT
SPECIAL EVENT: Trade Non-Farm Payrolls LIVE - 29th Edition
Wayne McDonell | Fri, Oct 3 2008, 11:30 GMT
fed, eurusd, china, crisis, centralbanks, interestrate, us, recession, highlighted
View All