U.S. Overview

Domestic Expansion in the Face of Global Risks

Real economic growth of 2 to 2.5 percent, with moderate inflation, characterizes the expansion as has been the story for some time. One result of this outlook is our expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue with its low federal fund rate benchmark for this year. Long-term benchmark rates are expected to rise, as the risk-on trade increases with fewer expectations for a double-dip recession in the United States and a collapse in Europe.

Despite the cyclical recovery, structural problems remain in the labor, housing and state and local government sectors. After two-plus years of recovery, these structural issues remain a damper on the strength of the recovery. Meanwhile, the global economy remains challenged with the cyclical weakness in the European economy combined with the emergence of significant risks with respect to the Middle East and the outcome of the U.S. election this fall. We believe a European recession is in swing right now that should lower export growth and earnings for some U.S. companies, at least in the near term.

Tensions in the Middle East could lead to a spike in oil prices in the short-run and possibly an extended period of uncertainty that might limit the supply of oil in a pattern reminiscent of the 1970s. Meanwhile, election uncertainties will likely begin to weigh on business decision making, as potential significantly different fiscal policy options would be associated with alternative election outcomes. Such uncertainties should weigh on economic, business investment and employment growth.

International Overview

Global Economy: Coming in for a Soft Landing?

The global economy revealed a bit more resilience at the start of the year. In January, the easing of global monetary policy and the improvement in global financial conditions has helped lift manufacturing and service sentiment in much of the world. However, our view of global growth for 2012 remains hardly altered. Global growth is still expected to slow to around 3.1 percent in 2012 from a 3.5 percent growth rate in 2011. The Eurozone crisis is far from solved, but financial conditions in Europe are much improved from the past month, giving fiscal authorities more breathing room to get a handle on their existing debt and solvency issues, and European banks a chance to improve their liquidity and capital positions. The main driver of the financial improvement has come from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) new three-year long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) that European banks have utilized liberally, helping themselves to about €500 billion in loans so far. The staunching of the European bank liquidity problems in the near term have given investors the confidence to snap up the distressed debt of Spain and Italy. Ten-year government bond yields in Italy have fallen below 6 percent from a November peak of 7.50 percent, but yields for the Italian government and other highly indebted European countries still remain elevated in a historical context. In addition, there is no guarantee that the ECB LTRO operations will help avoid a bank credit crunch in Europe that could deepen and prolong a European economic downturn. For now the economic data suggest that the global growth slowdown appears gradual.