• Leading indicators still point to solid growth in the coming quarter(s). However, in most areas there are signs of a peak in February.
  • Global PMI fell slightly back to 57.4 in February from 57.6 in January, the rebound came on the back of a significant increase in January. The new orders also declined to 56.9 from 59.5 in January. Hence the new orders – inventories balance showed a decline, although still from elevated levels.
  • OECD’s leading indicators still point to strong growth but are continuing to lose its momentum; pointing to a peak in global growth in Q1.
  • In the US, ISM fell back to 56.5, the sub indices were also soft. However, the ISM index still points to above trend growth in Q1. Our hard data inventory-demand ratio continues to be at a very high level, but has declined recently. Going forward we believe that the ISM index is close to its peak levels.
  • In Euroland the German ifo expectations index again rose. The Euroland PMI indices showed improvements in the major countries. The overall Euroland PMI index rose 1.8 index points. OECD’s leading indicator continues to signal solid growth in Germany. Scandi leading indicators in all countries continue to point to stronger growth in the manufacturing sector in the coming quarters.
  • In Asia leading indicators still point to strong growth. Chinese PMI indices declined last month, but mainly due to seasonal factors. The growth momentum in Asia is currently strongest outside China (and Japan). CEE PMI were almost unchanged, the production indices are moving towards positive (annual) growth rates again.
  • Outlook: Global PMI is close to a peak, but further increases cannot be ruled out in the near term. Generally, we expect Global PMI to hover close the current levels in the coming months and do not see a material slowdown before second half of 2010. Going forward, the momentum in OECDs leading indicator is set to moderate further in line with our forecast of a more modest growth rates. We continue to expect that global growth will stay somewhat above trend, as employment picks up and the recovery becomes self-sustained.