• April’s ISM figure increased significantly to 40.1 from 36.3. The important subindices Production, New Orders and Employment all contributed to the increase. Especially the new orders – inventories balance rose markedly. The price index was merely unchanged.
  • ISM 42.6 42.0 40.1 The readings from the local indices have again been slightly mixed this month, but overall the reading from the local surveys is positive. The local indices suggest an ISM reading of 41.3.
  • Taking other variables into account as well, we expect Monday's ISM index to post a small increase to 42.6, which is slightly higher than the consensus forecast of 42.0.
  • Going forward, we still expect to see a continued recovery in the ISM over the coming quarter. However, problems in the auto sector posts a risk to the short term outlook for the manufacturing sector, which is likely also behind the weakness in some of the regional indices this month. The underlying trend nevertheless remains up as production needs to pick up to close the huge gap between demand and supply growth.