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Global: Business Cycle Monitor
Tue, Aug 4 2009, 13:33 GMT
by Allan von Mehren
- After a small break in June, Global PMI had another strong increase in July. The global new orders index rose from 49.1 to 53.3, which is above the long-term average of 52.6. OECD’s leading indicators also rose strongly to even higher levels, pointing to very strong growth and a further rise in PMI during Q3 and Q4.
- The order-inventory balance from PMI data also rose a bit further, painting a similar picture of very strong global growth in H2 09.
- In the US most leading indicators continued higher. The ISM new orders index made another move higher from 49.2 to 55.3 and the order-inventory balance rose further. The ISM model points to a further rise above 55 by year-end.
- In Euroland OECD’s leading indicator, the PMI order-inventory balance, and ZEW all point to a significant rebound in H2 growth. In Scandi a sharp further rise in Swedish PMI stands out. Other countries and surveys also point to improvement, albeit at a slower pace.
- Asia continues to look strong. In particular, the sharp rebound in industrial production in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea is striking. CEE shows further a rise in PMI. Russian PMI increased strongly again in July.
- Outlook: We look for further improvement in PMI data in the coming months whereas some of the leading indicators that have risen the most are likely to level off soon from the very high levels. Global GDP growth looks set for a strong H2 recovery.
Published on Tue, Aug 4 2009, 13:37 GMT
Archive
- Global: Business Cycle Monitor
Published On Tue, Nov 3 2009, 11:25 GMT - Global: Business Cycle Monitor
Published On Wed, Oct 7 2009, 08:24 GMT - Global: Business Cycle Monitor
Published On Thu, Sep 3 2009, 11:14 GMT - US: ISM preview, August
Published On Mon, Aug 31 2009, 16:10 GMT - Global: Business Cycle Monitor
Published On Tue, Aug 4 2009, 13:33 GMT
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